XAUUSD D1: 3,876 Breaking - Is 3,629 Next? GoldOANDA:XAUUSDOwen_Steele Market Context Gold is under heavy selling pressure near 3,876, threatening a major support level. The daily structure remains bearish, with lower highs, repeated BOS formations and weakening buying momentum. Price is now testing the long-term ascending trendline alongside a weak structural low. A confirmed breakdown could trigger a deeper bearish continuation. 1. SMC Analysis - Sellers Target the Weak Low The previous bearish CHoCH and BOS confirm that sellers have gained control of the broader market structure. 3,876 - Critical Weak Low Price has moved slightly below this level. A confirmed daily close beneath it, followed by a failed retest, would strengthen the bearish outlook. 4,010-4,080 - Immediate Bearish Supply A corrective recovery into this region could attract renewed selling pressure. 3,629 - Next Sell-Side Liquidity This is the next major downside target if the trendline breakdown is confirmed. 3,300-3,380 - Major Demand Zone A deeper decline towards this area could create an opportunity for a bullish reaction. 2. Trendline and Market Structure Gold is challenging the long-term ascending trendline that previously supported the broader bullish cycle. The recent bearish displacement suggests this support is becoming increasingly vulnerable. Bearish Scenario: A confirmed breakdown below 3,876 could expose 3,629, followed by the major demand zone at 3,300-3,380. Bullish Scenario: A liquidity sweep below 3,876 followed by a strong reclaim and bullish CHoCH could support a corrective recovery towards 4,010-4,080. However, the broader bearish structure would remain intact until buyers confirm a meaningful structural reversal. 3. Key Price Zones Current price: 3,876 Immediate resistance: 4,010-4,080 Higher bearish supply: 4,650-4,760 Strong high: 4,895 Major upper supply: 5,180-5,300 Critical weak low: 3,876 Next downside target: 3,629 Major demand: 3,300-3,380 Bearish confirmation: Daily close below 3,876 with a failed retest Bullish recovery confirmation: Above 4,080 4. Trading Scenarios Primary Sell - Trendline Breakdown Entry: 3,870-3,895 after a confirmed daily breakdown and failed retest SL: Above 3,950 TP1: 3,750 TP2: 3,629 TP3: 3,380 Confirmation: Bearish BOS, failed support reclaim and sustained selling momentum. Alternative Sell - Supply Rejection Entry: 4,010-4,080 after bearish confirmation SL: Above 4,110 TP1: 3,876 TP2: 3,629 TP3: 3,380 Confirmation: Bearish rejection, lower-timeframe CHoCH and renewed downside displacement. Countertrend Buy - Major Demand Reaction Entry: 3,300-3,380 after bullish confirmation SL: Below 3,270 TP1: 3,500 TP2: 3,629 TP3: 3,876 Confirmation: Liquidity sweep, bullish CHoCH and successful support retest. 5. Owen's Overall View Gold is entering a critical phase as the daily trendline and weak low face significant selling pressure. SMC: Repeated bearish BOS formations continue to favour sellers. Trendline: A confirmed breakdown would weaken the long-term bullish structure. Liquidity: Losing 3,876 could open the way towards 3,629 and potentially the major demand at 3,300-3,380. My preferred scenario: Gold confirms a breakdown below 3,876, fails to reclaim the broken support and extends its decline towards 3,629. A temporary recovery remains possible, but buyers must reclaim resistance and establish a bullish structural shift before a meaningful reversal can develop. The key lesson: Breaking a major trendline is a warning, but confirmation through market structure determines whether the larger reversal is valid. What's Your View? Will gold defend 3,876 or extend its decline towards 3,629? Would you sell a confirmed trendline breakdown or wait for a buying reaction from deeper demand?