EUR/USD: One More Bounce Before the Next Leg Lower?EUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDEdgeTradingJourneyMy daily bias on EUR/USD remains bearish, and the area I’m watching most closely is the daily Fair Value Gap around 1.1180. The chart continues to show lower highs, with price moving below the lower boundary of the descending channel. My preferred scenario is a recovery into the 1.1178–1.1181 daily FVG, followed by a clear bearish reaction. Before considering a short setup, I would look for an H1 rejection accompanied by a break of local structure. If that confirmation develops, my downside references are: • 1.1110–1.1115: the recent lows and the first area where buyers could respond. • 1.1065: a potential extension if price breaks and holds below those lows. Positioning adds context, although the weekly changes deserve attention. In the October 20 COT report, Euro FX non-commercials held a net short position of 134,524 contracts, while Dollar Index non-commercials were net long 15,044 contracts. However, the euro’s net short position decreased by 3,049 contracts, and the improvement in dollar positioning came mainly from short covering. I see a broadly bearish backdrop for EUR/USD, but not clear evidence of accelerating selling. The retail sentiment shows approximately 87% of reported volume positioned long. I treat this imbalance as a contrarian consideration, not an entry signal. October seasonality supports the weaker backdrop, while November’s historical averages are mixed across the different lookback periods. My focus is on how price responds around 1.1180. The bearish idea remains conditional on confirmation.