Le Tableau de Rendon: NAS100 Sell 29,787, Stop Above Fed Spike

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Le Tableau de Rendon: NAS100 Sell 29,787, Stop Above Fed SpikeUS Tech 100CAPITALCOM:NAS100Rendon1PREVIOUS IDEA: Nasdaq 100 Fed Day, sell the 30,000 lower high at 29,950 The 29,950 limit was not filled by 16:00 UTC, so it was cancelled as written. After the Fed, the 20:00 UTC 15m candle spiked to 30,016 and closed at 29,745, back below 29,920. That was the valid entry. Target 1 at 29,640 hit the same evening and Target 2 at 29,400 hit at 02:00 UTC today. The stop at 30,110 was never touched. Result from the 29,745 entry: about +0.3R on T1 and +0.95R on T2, about +0.6R in total. The rule-based entry gave a worse price than the limit. That's the cost of not chasing a news spike. The Fed spike to 30,016 was sold 420 points within the hour. That's one more lower high in the sequence: 31,365, 31,280, 31,060, 30,680, 30,020 and now 30,016. Overnight the index fell to 29,325 and it's now around 29,530, in the middle of the range. No trade here. Today: US GDP and PCE at 12:30 UTC, ECB at 13:15 UTC, US cash open at 13:30 UTC. The dashed path on the chart is the Plan A scenario: a dip into the data, a rally into 29,780-29,850 after PCE and the cash open, a rejection, then T1 and T2 by Friday. It's a guide, not a forecast. PLAN A: SELL THE RALLY (primary) Entry: 29,787, limit order Inside the 29,780-29,850 zone, the pre-Fed highs. Stop: 30,033 (245 points) Above the 30,016 Fed-spike high. A break above it ends the lower-high sequence. Target 1: 29,330 (+457 / 1.9R) The overnight low. Take half off and move the stop to breakeven. Target 2: 29,130 (+657 / 2.7R) The 27 Oct low. PLAN B: BREAKDOWN Trigger: a 1H close below 29,300 Entry: the retest of 29,320 from below Stop: 29,480 Target 1: 29,130 (1.2R) Target 2: 28,860 (2.9R), the top of the 28,816-28,860 double bottom PLAN C: ONLY IF THE LOWER HIGH BREAKS Trigger: a 4H close above 30,020 Entry: the retest of 29,960-30,000, half size Stop: 29,780 Target: 30,680, the previous lower high RULES - No new entry from 12:25 to 13:45 UTC. The limit goes in only after the first 15m candle after the cash open has closed. - If the data spike runs through the zone, wait for a 15m rejection candle to close back below 29,780. Same stop and targets. - Size for the 245-point stop, not your normal size. Spreads widen at the data. - Expiry: Friday 30 Oct, 21:00 UTC. No fill by then, no trade. I'll update this idea when it hits a target or the stop, including if it fails. Educational content, not financial advice.