The Oromo Liberation Army is an Oromo nationalist insurgent group fighting Ethiopia’s federal government. Photo: OLA.Heavy fighting erupted between Ethiopian government forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in Chila, in Tigray’s Central Zone, on October 25 and 26. Residents reported artillery fire and drone strikes, while the TPLF said a drone strike killed seven young people working as traditional gold miners.The pro-government Tigray Peace Force said senior TPLF commander Maj. Gen. Yohannes Woldegiyorgis, known as John Medid, was in government custody but did not explain when or how he was taken.The clashes came three weeks after federal forces recaptured Mekelle, Tigray’s capital, and days after a TPLF commander ordered his fighters to keep resisting government-backed forces. Separately, the Oromia regional administration accused the TPLF and Eritrea of responsibility for attacks that killed at least 60 Orthodox Christians in Arsi Zone on October 20 and 24.Ethiopia’s conflicts have roots in the end of nearly three decades of TPLF dominance. From 1991 to 2018, the group controlled the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the ruling coalition that replaced the Marxist Derg regime. Protests in Oromia and Amhara brought Abiy Ahmed to power as prime minister in April 2018. That year, he ended the two-decade stalemate with Eritrea following the 1998–2000 border war, earning the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.On December 1, 2019, Abiy replaced the EPRDF with the Prosperity Party. The TPLF refused to join, retreated to Tigray, and held regional elections on September 9, 2020, defying a federal postponement. Addis Ababa declared the vote invalid.On November 4, 2020, Abiy ordered a military campaign against the TPLF after accusing its forces of attacking a federal military base. Eritrean troops and Amhara militias, including Fano, fought alongside government forces. The two-year war ended with the November 2, 2022, Pretoria Agreement, which required Tigrayan forces to disarm and provided for an interim administration.Other conflicts persisted or emerged. The Oromo Liberation Army had been fighting the government in Oromia since 2018. Fano, sidelined by the peace deal, launched a rebellion in Amhara in April 2023. The TPLF later split into rival factions and clashed with federal forces in early 2026.On September 20, 2026, seven armed and opposition groups announced the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, seeking to replace Abiy’s government with an inclusive transitional administration. Its founding declaration, translated by Martin Plaut, accuses the government of seeking to destroy Ethiopia’s peoples and urges other political and civic organizations to join. The alliance says a transitional government would end the wars, protect rights and open a national dialogue.The alliance’s seven announced founding members are the Amhara Fano National Movement, TPLF, Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, also known as Ugugumo, Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement and Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement. The Sidama National Liberation Front announced on September 25 that it would join.Some groups’ participation is disputed. According to conflict monitor ACLED, the Gumuz group denied joining and said it had no armed wing. ACLED reported that, as of September 26, only the TPLF, Fano and Ugugumo were actively fighting federal forces.The ONLF, an ethnic Somali movement in the Ogaden, is divided over the alliance. Its Jigjiga-based leadership denied joining, saying a rival faction led by Abdirahman Mohamed Sheik Mahdi used its name without authorization.The coalition brings together former enemies, including Fano and the TPLF. As Al Jazeera noted, it unites groups excluded from Pretoria with one of the agreement’s signatories.The TPLF says the Pretoria Agreement was never implemented and demands that Amhara forces and Eritrean soldiers withdraw from Tigray before it disarms. The cancellation of its registration in May 2025 barred the party from the June 2026 elections. In April 2026, the TPLF moved to restore pre-war governing structures, sidelining the interim administration established under Pretoria. Led by Debretsion Gebremichael, the party describes the current fighting as a defensive war.Fano’s grievances include exclusion from the Pretoria talks, Abiy’s plan to dismantle regional special forces, and decades of what Amhara activists describe as marginalization. The Amhara nationalist militia movement also claims Wolkait, Tegede, Humera and Raya, districts it says the TPLF annexed to Tigray. Its principal factions merged in January 2026 into the Amhara Fano National Movement under Zemene Kassie, who read the alliance’s founding statement on Tigrai television and serves as the alliance’s first chair.The OLA split from the Oromo Liberation Front, a political party, in 2018 after refusing to disarm. Ethiopia’s parliament designated it a terrorist organization in May 2021 under the name “Shene.” Led by Kumsa Diriba, known as Jaal Marroo, the insurgency seeks greater autonomy and recognition of Oromo identity.Ugugumo has advanced into Afar alongside Tigrayan forces, with fighting reported along the Tigray-Afar border and around Erebti and Abala.Fighting between the TPLF and federal forces resumed on September 23, three days after the alliance was announced. Alliance forces attacked government positions across Tigray, Amhara and Afar. The government deployed the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), federal police and air power, including drones.Federal forces are also backed by the Tigray Peace Force. The Rift Valley Institute describes the pro-government militia as formed in 2025 by fighters dissatisfied with TPLF rule, with tacit federal backing. It is aligned with Getachew Reda, the TPLF’s former chief negotiator at Pretoria, who now advises Abiy. Amhara militias holding Western Tigray, including the Tekeze Guard, also fought alongside the federal army near Humera in August 2026.Federal forces and the Tigray Peace Force retook Mekelle on October 4 after the TPLF withdrew. They subsequently took Adwa and Adigrat without a fight and entered Aksum. On October 16, the federal government suspended Tigray’s interim administration and appointed a caretaker government after declaring the TPLF’s defeat.The war has also reshaped regional alliances. Eritrea fought alongside Abiy’s forces in 2020–2022 but now faces Ethiopian accusations of supporting the TPLF. On October 8, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos accused Eritrea of sending troops 60 kilometers (37 miles) into Tigray and appealed to the U.N. Security Council. ACLED later reported Eritrean troops withdrawing through Zalambessa. Eritrea denies backing the TPLF and severed diplomatic ties after Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats.ENDF Chief of Staff Field Marshal Birhanu Jula has accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing the alliance. All three deny the allegation. Sudan’s army-led government, in turn, accuses Ethiopia of supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan’s civil war.Regional tensions also center on Abiy’s pursuit of sovereign sea access, including through Eritrea’s port of Assab, for which he has not ruled out force. Egypt’s dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile adds to the friction. On October 4, Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued a joint declaration at El Alamein asserting that Red Sea governance is the exclusive responsibility of coastal states.The United States warned the TPLF against continuing its offensive on September 23. In an October 14 call, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Abiy that Horn of Africa countries must respect their neighbors’ sovereignty and territorial integrity and avoid cross-border incursions. Six Democratic senators criticized the administration for allowing Tigray-related human rights sanctions under Executive Order 14046 to expire and urged the State Department to press all parties to resume mediation.The post Ethiopia at War: Rebel Alliances, Regional Rivalries and the Battle for Tigray appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.