Speaker Mike Johnson is dismissing current polling data that gives Democrats an 80 percent chance of taking control of the House, The Hill reports. With only one week remaining before the 2026 midterms, the Speaker is publicly maintaining his confidence that the GOP will hold onto its majority. Johnson appeared on Fox News with Laura Ingraham on Monday to address the numbers. He claims that the surveys are failing to capture the true sentiment of the electorate. Johnson believes that the polls are underestimating his party because a growing number of Republican voters are refusing to answer survey questions. He pointed to what he calls partisan nonresponse bias as the reason for the discrepancy. “I think it’s [polls are] even further off this time because more and more Republicans are unwilling to participate in these surveys,” Johnson said. “They don’t want to give their information to someone on the phone. … They’re calling it the partisan nonresponse bias.” Partisan nonresponse bias has been a major topic in the polling industry for years People often point to 2016 and 2020 as examples where polls underestimated President Trump in battleground states. However, those were presidential election cycles. Midterm elections historically see different trends, and polls have often been much more accurate during those years. Mike Johnson: "When I'm in these big arenas, I ask for hands — 'Show me your hand if you've answered a poll in the last six months.' There will be like three hands among 300 people. I'm telling you, these polls are off. All of them." pic.twitter.com/j3kkBowFSC— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 25, 2026 Data analyst Nate Silver looked at the average polling error during the final three weeks of campaigns for the House, Senate, and governor races. His findings suggest that the recent midterms did not see the same issues Johnson is describing. In 2018, the average polling error was 0 points. In 2022, the polls actually underestimated Democrats by 0.3 points. Despite these historical patterns and the current political climate, Johnson is staying positive. His party is facing several challenges, including high gas prices and the record-low approval ratings for President Trump. Earlier this month, he spoke with CBS News about his future as Speaker. He made it clear that he expects to remain in his position because he views a Republican loss as an unlikely scenario. “I don’t think it’s going to happen, so I don’t spend any time thinking about it,” Johnson said regarding the possibility of his party losing the House. Many political observers have a different outlook. Decision Desk HQ, which is a nonpartisan election forecaster, currently puts the odds of a Democratic takeover at 80 percent. Democrats only need to gain three seats to flip the chamber. The financial strategy of the GOP also seems to tell a story that conflicts with the optimism from the Speaker. Recent spending reports show Republicans pulling money out of several key races. These districts are vital for the party to defend if they want to keep their current majority. The list of races where support is being withdrawn includes New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District and Iowa’s 1st Congressional District. It is worth noting that President Trump carried both of these districts in 2024.