A 25bp hike is close to fully priced, so the New Zealand dollar is likely to trade on guidance, not the move itself. Language that leaves the door open to more tightening would back the hawkish paths from ASB and Westpac and lift front-end yields. “Wait and see” wording, as Kiwibank expects, would favour ANZ’s pause view and could pull back some of the pricing for a peak. A split vote would add volatility either way. Oil is the swing factor beyond today: further gains in crude would add to New Zealand’s fuel-driven inflation and strengthen the case for 3.5% or higher. AUD/NZD traders face back-to-back central bank risk, with the RBA meeting on November 2 and 3.---Earlier:Preview: RBNZ set to lift OCR to 3% ahead of election as oil and weak kiwi fuel inflationNZIER Shadow Board majority backs 25bp RBNZ hike to 3% as oil and weaker kiwi biteReserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Breman ---New Zealand’s banks are united on a hike to 3% today, but their paths after that range from an ANZ pause to a Westpac peak of 4%, so the RBNZ’s guidance matters more than the move.Summary:ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Westpac and Kiwibank all expect the RBNZ to raise the OCR 25bp to 3% at 01:00 GMT (21:00 US Eastern on Tuesday), a third consecutive hike.Markets price roughly 90% odds of a hike. Westpac switched from a pause call after last week’s CPI data.ANZ pencils in a December pause. ASB expects 3.5% by February. Westpac sees 3.5% by February and a 4% peak in September 2027.Kiwibank expects “wait and see” language, followed by a hold. BNZ says the RBNZ should signal more tightening.Fuel costs and a weaker kiwi are driving the outlook, with inflation seen rising back toward 4.5% to 4.7% by the December quarter.This is a Monetary Policy Review with no new forecasts. It comes 10 days before the November 7 election.All five of New Zealand’s major banks expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3% today, which would be its third consecutive hike, but they are divided on how much further the central bank will need to go.The decision is due at 14:00 New Zealand time, which is 01:00 GMT on Wednesday and 21:00 US Eastern on Tuesday. Markets have roughly 90% of a hike priced in, according to ASB, and BNZ said a decision to hold would come as a material shock.The consensus has firmed over the past week. Before the September quarter CPI release, Westpac was the outlier calling for a pause, but it now expects a hike today. Kiwibank, which said in September the economy looked too weak for further tightening, also expects a move, though it sees the RBNZ pairing the hike with “wait and see” language before holding.The banks’ rate paths diverge after today. ANZ has lightly pencilled in a pause in December, with chief economist Sharon Zollner describing 3% as a more comfortable level for the RBNZ to sit at. ASB expects further hikes in December and February, taking the OCR to a peak of 3.5%, and has lifted its estimate of the neutral rate, the level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy, to around 3.5%. BNZ said the RBNZ should signal that more tightening is coming. Westpac has the most hawkish track, with hikes in December and February to 3.5%, followed by further increases in June and September 2027 to a peak of 4%. Westpac also said a split committee vote was very possible.The drivers are oil and the currency. Higher fuel prices and a weaker New Zealand dollar have lifted the inflation outlook, and while annual inflation eased to 3.7% in the September quarter, banks expect it to climb back toward 4.5% to 4.7% by the December quarter.Today’s meeting is a Monetary Policy Review rather than a full Monetary Policy Statement, so it will not include updated forecasts or a projected rate track. That leaves the tone of the short statement, any hint at the next move and the voting record as the main signals for markets. The decision also lands 10 days before New Zealand’s November 7 general election, although Governor Anna Breman has said the election is not a factor in policy decisions. --- This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.