XAUUSD — Wave 5 Lower Toward 3,900GoldOANDA:XAUUSDKelly_Koou_GoldFrom Kelly’s view, gold remains inside a clear bearish structure after losing the 3,975–3,985 support area. Price is currently trading around 3,971, while the sequence of lower highs and lower lows continues to favor sellers. The key idea is simple: the current decline may still be developing through Wave (3). A corrective Wave (4) could later retest resistance, but while gold remains below the 4,003–4,012 liquidity sell zone, the main scenario favors continuation toward 3,945–3,952 and eventually the 3,898–3,905 Wave (5) target. ⟡ Market structure Gold has weakened significantly after rejection from the 4,070 area and has continued to build a bearish sequence beneath previous support. The former 3,975–3,985 strong support is now being broken, which increases the risk of another downside expansion. The nearest major resistance sits around 4,003–4,012, where the chart marks the liquidity sell zone. A corrective rebound into this area may provide the next important test for sellers. Below current price, the 3,945–3,952 zone is the next reaction area and aligns with the projected Wave (3) target. If sellers maintain control after a Wave (4) correction, the larger bearish structure may extend toward the 3,898–3,905 Fibonacci and Wave (5) completion zone. ➤ Key levels ◌ Current price area: 3,968–3,975 ◌ Main sell zone: 4,003–4,012 ◌ Strong resistance: 4,020–4,035 ◌ Broken support: 3,975–3,985 ◌ First target: 3,945–3,952 ◌ Second target: 3,920 ◌ Main target: 3,898–3,905 ◌ Invalidation: Above 4,035 ⌁ Elliott Wave view Wave (1): The first bearish impulse pushed price from the recent upper structure toward the 4,000 area. Wave (2): Gold corrected higher toward approximately 4,030–4,035, but buyers failed to create a bullish structural reversal. Wave (3): The current bearish expansion may continue toward the 3,945–3,952 Fibonacci target zone. Wave (4): A corrective recovery could then develop back toward approximately 3,975–3,985, with a deeper retracement potentially testing the 4,003–4,012 liquidity sell zone. Wave (5): If sellers defend the Wave (4) recovery, the final bearish leg may extend toward the 3,898–3,905 target area. ▸ Trading scenario Preferred bearish scenario Entry: 4,003–4,012 after bearish confirmation Stop Loss: Above 4,035 Take Profit 1: 3,975 Take Profit 2: 3,945–3,952 Take Profit 3: 3,898–3,905 The cleaner plan is to wait for a corrective recovery into resistance rather than chase price after the current breakdown. A rejection from 4,003–4,012, followed by renewed weakness below 3,975, would strengthen the bearish continuation scenario. If 3,945 also fails, the projected Wave (5) target around 3,900 may come into focus. Alternative scenario: If gold reaches 3,945–3,952 first and produces a strong bullish reaction, price may complete Wave (3) and begin a Wave (4) recovery toward 3,975–3,985 before the final bearish leg develops. ◌ Invalidation The bearish scenario would weaken if gold reclaims 4,012 and sustains price above the liquidity sell zone. A confirmed break above 4,035 would invalidate the preferred short-term Elliott Wave structure and suggest that a deeper corrective recovery may be developing. ⌁ Kelly’s view Kelly’s main view remains bearish while gold stays below the 4,003–4,035 resistance structure. The immediate focus is the 3,945–3,952 area, where Wave (3) may complete. Any recovery from that region could remain corrective unless buyers reclaim the upper resistance structure. If sellers regain control after Wave (4), the larger 3,898–3,905 Wave (5) target remains in focus. Do you think gold will reach the 3,945–3,952 zone first, or retest the 4,003–4,012 liquidity sell zone before continuing lower?