Bearish Breakdown – 3813 in Focus | XAUUSD 31/10GoldOANDA:XAUUSDAdrian_NovaTrader🌐 MARKET OVERVIEW Gold remains under significant bearish pressure following a series of H4 Break of Structure (BOS) formations. The market has continued to print lower highs and lower lows, confirming that sellers remain in control of the broader structure. The latest bearish expansion pushed price down to 3875, breaking below the previous consolidation range and approaching the lower boundary of the descending channel. One important observation is that price has not yet demonstrated a convincing bullish Market Structure Shift (MSS). Although a temporary recovery is possible after such an extended decline, the current structure does not support an immediate bullish reversal. For the next trading session, my primary expectation is a technical retracement toward the 3920–3985 Fair Value Gap (FVG), followed by another potential bearish reaction. I do not favor chasing the current downside move. The better opportunity would be to wait for price to return to a predefined Point of Interest (POI), then look for lower-timeframe confirmation before considering a bearish continuation. 📍 KEY LEVELS Major Resistance: 4165–4200 (H4 Order Block) Secondary Resistance: 4365–4400 (H4 Order Block) Immediate Resistance: 3975–3985 Main FVG / Reaction Area: 3920–3985 Fibonacci 0.236: 3939 Fibonacci 0.382: 3978 Fibonacci 0.5: 4009 Fibonacci 0.618: 4041 Immediate Support: 3876 Major Support Zone: 3790–3820 Lower Support: 3774 🔴 PRIMARY SCENARIO – BEARISH CONTINUATION My preferred scenario for the next session is a temporary bullish retracement followed by bearish continuation. The recent decline has been aggressive, so a direct continuation without a retracement could offer an unfavorable entry location. I will be monitoring the following sequence: Price attempts to recover from the 3875 area. A retracement develops toward the 3939–3985 FVG. Price approaches the 3975–3985 reaction area. M15 or M30 shows bearish rejection, a liquidity sweep followed by bearish MSS, or a fresh bearish BOS. If confirmation appears, the market may resume its downward expansion. The main objective is a retest of 3876, followed by the 3813–3790 support zone. If selling pressure remains strong and the support zone fails to hold, 3774 becomes the next downside reference. 📌 TRADE PLAN – PRIMARY SETUP Direction: Bearish continuation Entry Zone: 3975–3980 Stop Loss: 4020 Take Profit: TP1: 3876 TP2: 3813 TP3: 3790 Extended TP: 3774 Confirmation Required: Price must retrace into the predefined POI. M15/M30 must show bearish market structure confirmation. A rejection candle or liquidity sweep should support the entry. Avoid entering solely because price touches the FVG. Trade Management: Consider partial position closure at TP1. Move the stop according to the confirmed market structure rather than automatically. Allow the remaining position to develop toward TP2 and TP3 if bearish momentum persists. If price reaches the entry area without confirmation, remain on standby. Invalidation: A move above 4020 invalidates this specific trade setup and triggers the predefined stop. A sustained H4 close above 4041–4064 would further weaken the immediate bearish continuation thesis. 🟢 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – BULLISH RECOVERY A bullish recovery cannot be ruled out, particularly because price is approaching an important support region. If 3876 holds and buyers manage to reclaim 3939, the market could develop a deeper corrective movement toward 3978–4009. However, a recovery alone is not sufficient to confirm a bullish reversal. For the bullish scenario to gain credibility, I want to see: A clear bullish MSS on M15/H1. A successful reclaim of 3978–4009. A higher low forming above the reclaimed structure. A sustained move above the descending trendline. If these conditions develop, the next resistance references are 4041 and 4064. Until then, any upward movement remains a potential corrective retracement rather than a confirmed trend reversal. 🧭 SESSION OUTLOOK My overall expectation for the next active trading session is BEARISH, with a possible initial recovery before another downside attempt. The 3920–3985 FVG is the most important area to monitor. I would prefer a retracement toward 3975–3985, followed by lower-timeframe bearish confirmation, rather than entering after an already extended downward expansion. The key battle will be between the FVG resistance above and the 3876 support below. A failure to reclaim the broken structure keeps the bearish continuation scenario in focus. Conversely, a sustained H4 recovery above 4041–4064 would require a reassessment of the current directional bias.