Gold Market Outlook Ahead of the Fed Interest Rate DecisionGoldOANDA:XAUUSDbillionaire_guruWe are currently facing a highly uncertain and volatile market environment, making it increasingly difficult to anticipate gold’s next directional move. Despite the strong bearish momentum observed over the past few weeks, XAUUSD continues to hold above the previous key support levels of $3,940 and $3,960, raising questions about whether the bearish trend still has room to continue or whether a potential reversal is developing. The Federal Reserve’s funds rate decision is scheduled for Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Historically, institutional participants often position themselves ahead of major economic events, although the direction and nature of that positioning remain uncertain. At this stage, I do not believe there is sufficient confirmation to establish a firm directional bias. However, the potential SMT divergence between the US Dollar Index and gold on the daily timeframe offers an interesting perspective on what institutional positioning might look like. The USDX has broken above its previous significant higher high and is currently trading above that level. Nevertheless, I am questioning whether this breakout represents genuine bullish continuation in the dollar or a potential buy-side liquidity sweep. One of the key clues supporting this idea is gold’s inability (as of now) to break below its previous significant low. Institutional participants may be accumulating long positions in gold, which could explain why price has consistently failed to break below its previous low despite the broader bearish momentum. If this interpretation is correct, we could see a bullish repricing in gold, particularly if the USDX fails to sustain its breakout and begins to move lower. The USDX is currently retesting a bearish institutional OB on the daily timeframe. If this zone fails to produce a meaningful rejection and the dollar continues to strengthen, gold could remain under pressure and eventually break below its existing support levels. Such a move would invalidate the current bullish hypothesis and potentially open the door to further downside. Personally, I am leaning slightly toward a bullish scenario for gold, primarily because of its resilience at key support levels and the potential divergence between the USDX and XAUUSD. Additionally, seasonal physical gold demand associated with upcoming festivals in the Indian and other markets could provide some underlying support, although its actual impact on short-term price action remains uncertain. How you interpret the current market structure and the potential SMT divergence between the USDX and gold? Going into Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision, would you anticipate a continuation of dollar strength and further downside in gold, or do you see the possibility of a liquidity sweep in DXY followed by a bullish reversal in XAUUSD? Comments?