TIM BALK2026年11月3日周五，迈阿密选举总部进行的提前投票。 Ruth Fremson/The New York TimesThe United States has reached the midterm elections, and voters will have an opportunity to deliver a judgment on the country’s direction two years into President Trump’s second term.美国已进入中期选举，在特朗普总统第二任期开始两年之际，选民将有机会对国家的未来方向作出评判。Mr. Trump enters the midterms on Tuesday with his approval rating near its lowest level ever, dragged down by the unpopular war in Iran and rising consumer prices that have outpaced wages and left many Americans struggling to cover their basic needs.特朗普周二迎来中期选举时，其支持率接近历史最低水平，这主要是因为不受欢迎的伊朗战争以及不断上涨的消费价格。物价涨幅超过工资增长，使许多美国人难以负担基本生活需求。The president’s diminished standing and the country’s gloomy mood have given Democrats hope that voters will hand them majorities in Congress, which is controlled by Republicans.总统声望下滑和全国低迷的情绪让民主党人燃起希望，认为选民可能会将目前由共和党控制的国会多数席位交给他们。More often than not, the party that controls the White House loses seats in the midterms. From 1934 to 2022, the president’s party bled an average of 27 seats in the House and three in the Senate, according to the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara.通常情况下，控制白宫的政党会在中期选举中失去席位。根据加州大学圣巴巴拉分校的“美国总统项目”统计，从1934年到2022年，总统所属政党平均在众议院失去27个席位，在参议院失去三个席位。This year, strategists in both parties say it is likely that Democrats will wrest back the 435-seat House, offering the party a check on the Trump administration. But the picture in the 100-seat Senate is more complicated.今年，两党策略师都说，民主党人很可能夺回拥有435个席位的众议院，从而对特朗普政府形成制衡。但拥有100个席位的参议院情况更为复杂。Here’s what to know.以下是需要了解的情况。What is the state of play in the Senate?参议院选情如何？Both parties see the battle for the Senate as a tossup, and recent polling has encouraged Democrats.两党都认为参议院之争胜负难料，而近期民调令民主党人受到鼓舞。In this chamber, where lawmakers serve six-years terms and only 35 of 100 seats are on the ballot, Democrats have a more challenging path than they do in the House.在参议院，议员任期六年，今年100个席位中只有35个需要改选，因此与众议院相比，民主党面临的挑战更为艰巨。Democrats’ route to a Senate majority goes through a number of states that are traditionally Republican strongholds.民主党若想在参议院获得多数席位，必须在多个传统上属于共和党大本营的州取得胜利。Democrats hold 47 Senate seats. To take back the chamber, they must flip at least four seats held by Republicans. At the same time, Democrats are trying to defend seats in two states Mr. Trump won in 2024. And five of the seven most competitive Senate races are in states that Mr. Trump carried by double digits in 2024.民主党人目前拥有47个参议院席位。要夺回参议院，他们必须从共和党手中夺取至少四个席位。与此同时，民主党人还要在特朗普2024年赢下的两个州努力守住席位。而在竞争最激烈的七场参议院竞选中，有五场位于特朗普在2024年以两位数优势获胜的州。在本轮选举周期中，民主党若想在参议院获得多数席位，就必须拿下若干个传统上属于共和党大本营的州。The seven most competitive races are in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas.竞争最激烈的七场选战分别在阿拉斯加、艾奥瓦、堪萨斯、缅因、密歇根、俄亥俄和得克萨斯。Early this year, even the most optimistic Democrats viewed their chances of winning back the Senate as low, given the daunting map. But then Mr. Trump took the country to war, and the conflict clogged a vital oil-shipping corridor, sending the price of gasoline and diesel soaring. Rising shipping costs made myriad goods more expensive, upending Mr. Trump’s vows to make America “affordable again.”今年早些时候，鉴于选情严峻，即使最乐观的民主党人也认为夺回参议院的机会很低。但随后特朗普带领国家卷入战争，冲突堵塞了一条重要的石油运输通道，导致汽油和柴油价格飙升。运输成本上升使大量商品价格上涨，颠覆了特朗普让美国“重新负担得起”的誓言。Democrats have campaigned on promises to curb inflation and end the war. Although the party is still viewed skeptically by much of the public, according to opinion polls, the message has appeared to resonate.民主党人以遏制通胀和结束战争作为竞选承诺。尽管民调显示公众仍对该党持怀疑态度，但这一信息似乎引起了共鸣。Now polls suggest Democrats are ahead in almost all of the key Senate battlegrounds. Still, polls are imperfect, and some Democrats have sought to manage expectations, cognizant that they must overcome a challenging partisan tilt in many of those states.如今民调显示，民主党人在几乎所有关键参议院战场都领先。不过，民调并不完美，一些民主党人试图管理外界预期，因为他们知道，必须在其中许多州克服严峻的党派倾向。What is the state of play in the House?众议院选情如何？More than in the Senate, races in the House tend to closely follow the national mood. Americans often vote for parties rather than specific candidates when they elect representatives, who serve two-year terms and are on the ballot every election cycle.与参议院相比，众议院选战往往更紧密地跟随全国情绪。在选举任期两年、每个选举周期都要改选的众议员时，美国人往往会投票给政党，而非特定候选人。This year, the powerful political headwinds facing Republicans have left them with long odds of keeping the chamber. At the moment, Republicans have a razor-thin advantage in the House: 218 seats to 214 seats.今年，共和党面临强大的政治逆风，使它们保住众议院的机会十分渺茫。目前，共和党在众议院仅有218席对214席的微弱优势。The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, projects that Democrats will flip between 12 and 25 seats and finish with up to 240 seats.无党派选举预测机构库克政治报告预计，民主党将夺回12到25个席位，最终席位总数可能达到240席。The vast majority of the most competitive House races are playing out in districts held by Republicans.绝大多数竞争最激烈的众议院选战发生在共和党持有的选区。The national House battle was reshaped earlier this year, after Republicans, urged on by Mr. Trump, redrew congressional district lines to advantage their party, starting in Texas.今年早些时候，在特朗普敦促下，共和党人从得克萨斯开始重划国会选区，以便令本党获利，这重新塑造了全国众议院选战的格局。Democrats fought back, redrawing districts in blue states such as California, but in some cases they were foiled by courts. In the end, Republicans emerged from the redistricting war with a structural advantage, aided by a Supreme Court decision that weakened the Voting Rights Act and allowed them to redraw more districts.民主党人进行了反击，在加利福尼亚等蓝州重划选区，但在一些情况下被法院阻止。最终，共和党人在重划选区战中取得结构性优势，这得益于最高法院一项削弱《投票权法》效力的裁决，允许共和党重新划分更多选区。Still, that edge is seen as unlikely to be enough for Republicans to keep the House in a difficult political climate.不过，在当前艰难的政治气候下，这一优势被认为不足以让共和党保住众议院控制权。What are the parties saying?两党各持何种立场？Mr. Trump has spent weeks crisscrossing the country, delivering an unusual midterm pitch.特朗普数周来在全国各地奔波，发表不同寻常的中期选举拉票讲话。“Pretend I’m on the ballot, because essentially I am on the ballot,” Mr. Trump pleaded at a rally Sunday in Iowa, a Senate battleground. The line invariably appears in his long, winding and often unscripted speeches.“假装我也在选票上，因为我实际就在选票上，”特朗普周日在参议院战场州艾奥瓦的集会上恳求道。这句话总会在他那些冗长、迂回且往往脱稿的演讲中出现。It’s the same message Democrats are relaying to voters.这也是民主党人向选民传递的信息。Unpopular presidents don’t typically try to make midterms referendums of their presidencies. But Mr. Trump and his advisers are hoping to juice turnout among Americans who don’t always vote but turned out to elect him to the White House in 2016 and 2024.不受欢迎的总统通常不会试图把中期选举变成对自己总统任期的公投。但特朗普及其顾问希望激发那些平时不常投票、但在2016年和2024年投票把他送入白宫的美国人的投票热情。周日，特朗普总统在艾奥瓦州迪比克市参加竞选集会。Democrats have prosecuted a case that Mr. Trump has made America unaffordable and lost touch with the needs of voters. They have accused his administration of corruption and described the Iran war as ill-planned and unnecessary. They have pilloried the president’s efforts to make over Washington and renovate the White House, saying that they are gaudy vanity projects.民主党人则主张，特朗普让美国人难以负担生活费用，并脱离了选民需求。他们指责其政府腐败，称伊朗战争计划不周且毫无必要。他们抨击总统改造华盛顿和翻修白宫的努力，称这些都是浮夸的自我炫耀工程。“He should be on HGTV,” former President Barack Obama said at a rally in Ohio in October, mocking Mr. Trump. “He’s got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory. Just gold everywhere.”“他应该上‘美国家园’频道，”前总统奥巴马10月在俄亥俄州一场集会上嘲讽特朗普说。“他让白宫看起来像萨达姆·侯赛因开了一家芝乐坊。到处都是金色。”Republicans have also sought to persuade voters that Democratic candidates are unacceptable options, casting them as politically extreme — and sometimes worse. The strategy has produced one of the darkest elections in modern American history, as Republicans have attacked Democrats with false and incendiary claims.共和党人也试图说服选民，民主党候选人不可接受，他们把民主党人描绘成政治极端分子——有时甚至更糟。随着共和党人使用虚假和煽动性说法攻击民主党人，这一策略造就了美国现代史上最黑暗的选举之一。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。