On November 3, voters in the United States will deliver their verdict on the performance of the second Trump administration as well as their faith in the Republican lawmakers in the US Congress. In the so-called midterm elections, all 435 seats of the US House of Representatives, one-third (35) of the US Senate seats (100), and 36 gubernatorial positions are up for grabs. Most opinion polls suggest that the results could be heavily against the Republican Party. If so, the result could fundamentally alter the nature and course of the remaining two years of the Donald Trump presidency. In fact, the ramifications will be widespread, given how the Trump administration’s decisions — from slapping punitive tariffs to starting a war with Iran — have affected even the household budgets across the global economy. But why do the polls suggest a “Blue Wave” in favour of the Democratic Party? Trump had staged a remarkable political comeback when he beat Democratic candidate and then Vice-President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Notwithstanding his checkered past — not only is he the first president in US history to be impeached twice, he is also the first former president and sitting president to have a criminal conviction on his record — Trump won in a landslide primarily on two big issues. One, he promised to curb and regulate immigration in a way that secures US borders. Two, he promised to address the cost of living crisis. On immigration, the results of his policies, although controversial, have been effective enough for it to not be the biggest issue in the midterms. The number of migrants and refugees entering into the US and the visas provided have all fallen sharply even as detentions and deportations of immigrants have spiked. Story continues below this adHowever, on the economy, the concerns have only flared up. According to most polls, the economy is the single-most important issue on which votes will likely be cast, and across most polls, Trump’s approval rating on this count are at historic lows, and falling.Yes, in many ways it is. The US is the world’s largest economy and yet, notwithstanding its large base or the many policy disruptions introduced by Trump during his second term, its GDP growth has been reasonably high. (Chart 1). When Trump took charge in January 2025, the US GDP was around $29.9 trillion. Since then, barring two quarters, the US GDP has often surprised on the upside and has now reached $33 trillion. Notwithstanding its large base or the many policy disruptions introduced by Trump during his second term, the US’ GDP growth has been reasonably high.The International Monetary Fund estimates that the per capita GDP of the US — that is, if the US GDP is divided by its population — has grown from $86,400 in 2024 to $95,200 in 2026. That’s a jump of around $8,800 in the first two years of Trump’s second term. For reference, over the same period, India’s per capita GDP has grown from $2,590 to $2,750, China’s from $13,440 to $15,370, and France’s from $46,300 to $51,450.Story continues below this adUnsurprisingly, the US stock markets have been skyrocketing. The NASDAQ 100 index, which features the most innovative and biggest non-financial companies, has gone from just over 21,000 to just over 28,000 while the broader S&P 500 index has gone from around 6,000 to 7,600 mark. Fast GDP growth has ensured that the US continues to have fairly low, and stable, levels of unemployment rate.Further, fast GDP growth has also ensured that the US continues to have fairly low, and stable, levels of unemployment rate (Chart 2).Then what is the problem?Even before Trump’s second term, the US’s economic growth was by itself not the problem. The US was the only major economy that recovered to its pre-pandemic growth path. In other words, it registered a genuine V-shaped recovery; it grew back to where it would have been without the Covid-19 pandemic. In most other countries, including India, it took around 2-3 years for economies to get back to the same levels of economic output.Story continues below this adThe problem in the US was affordability for an average American. That in turn depended on two factors: the rate at which prices went up (read inflation) and the rate at which wages or earnings went up. Since Trump took charge, inflation rate has reversed its trajectory.Chart 3 shows that since Trump took charge, inflation rate has reversed its trajectory; it was 2.4% when Trump took charge but has not come back to that level since.At last count, it was at 3.7% — almost double of the US central bank target of 2%. What’s most damaging is that the main reasons for this spike in inflation rate are Trump’s policy choices; first it was tariffs (which are a tax on US consumers) and then the war in Iran, which further spiked fuel prices. Since the Iran war, retail fuel prices have gone by almost 50%. Story continues below this ad Since the start of March, the growth rate of real earnings has turned negative every month.The spike in inflation has been such that it has robbed average US workers of any real increase in earnings. Chart 4 shows the growth rate of earnings of US workers when adjusted for inflation. As the data shows, since the start of March, the growth rate of real earnings has turned negative every month.Further, the government’s own debts have continued to grow to alarming levels, leading to investors demanding higher interest rates for lending money to the US government. That shift, in turn, has made loans costlier for the average American — in several cases the mortgage rates are higher by almost 50%.In other words, things are costlier to buy with cash in their pockets and loans are costlier to finance. In real terms, most Americans are worse off than a year ago.This explains the anger that many opinion polls are capturing notwithstanding a fast growing economy and a booming stock market. UpshotStory continues below this adPresident Trump has never accepted that his policy choices are hurting American citizens. For months after taking charge, every time he was asked about the worsening economic state, he would blame his predecessor Joe Biden. In May last year, in an interview to NBC News, he even said that “the good parts are the Trump economy and the bad parts are the Biden economy”.A key aspect of what distinguishes a democracy from a monarchy is the voter’s ability to force the government to be accountable, and the midterms are the American voter’s best chance to tell President Trump whether they are happy with his policy choices or would they like a change.Do you think Trump’s Make America Great Again approach has worked for the US? Do you think other countries and leaders should learn from Trump and his approach?Share your views and queries at udit.misra@expressindia.comTake care,Udit