BTC/USDT – Bearish RSI Divergence and Rejection at 78.8K M15Bitcoin / TetherUS PERPETUAL CONTRACTBINANCE:BTCUSDT.PCypher-oneContext After the sharp sell-off on October 29–30, Bitcoin made a relief rally (after a CHoCH near the low) up to about 78,900. That rally stalled right under the previous breakdown area and rolled over. Price is now back below both the EMA 200 (77,703) and the EMA 50 (77,205), with the broken level at 77,335 now acting as resistance. The structure on this timeframe is bearish: the bounce failed and sellers took control. Momentum A bearish RSI divergence formed at the top of the bounce: price made a higher high while RSI made a lower high. RSI (14) is now at 40.9 and has fallen below 50, which confirms the loss of bullish momentum. It is not oversold yet, so there is still room to extend lower. Key levels Resistance: 77,335 (broken level) · 77,703 (EMA 200) · 78,867 (stop, bounce high) Support / targets: 76,000–76,460 (recent low and key daily support) · 74,737 (target) Trade plan (short) Entry: 78,030, currently in profit Stop loss: 78,867 (-1.07%, above the bounce high) Target: 74,737 (+4.22%) Risk/Reward: about 1:3.9 Fundamentals (November 3, 2026) Fed on hold, but hawkish. The Fed held rates on October 28 in a 10–2 vote, with two members favoring a quarter-point hike. Strong wage data in the November 6 jobs report could strengthen the case for a hike. Higher rates for longer remain a headwind for Bitcoin. crypto analyticsinsight ETF flows turned negative. Friday’s $643.2 million ETF outflow erased $440.8 million received over four sessions. US spot ETFs lost $515 million in October, their first monthly outflow since June. analyticsinsight cryptonews Binance exchange risk. Your chart is on Binance, and users withdrew a net $3.64 billion when it reopened after a record $6.3 billion hack. This weighs on sentiment and liquidity. cryptonews Event risk today and this week. The US midterm elections are held today, November 3. Volatility can spike on the results, and the jobs report follows on Friday. coingape Where analysts see support. One outlook stays bearish below about $80,181, with $76,463 as the key support and $75,000 (the mid-September low) next if it breaks. This matches your target zone. cryptonews Why the setup is attractive Failed relief rally with a clear lower-timeframe rejection Bearish RSI divergence and price back under both EMAs Macro and flow backdrop (hawkish Fed, ETF outflows) supports further downside Tight stop (about 1%) against a target about four times larger Educational purposes only, not financial advice.