Gold (GC) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setup for Tue (Nov 03)Gold FuturesCOMEX:GC1!MyAlgoIndexBias: The December gold contract settled at 3,969.6 on Monday, up 70.7 or 1.81 percent, after trading between 3,980.8 and 3,889.0. The session traded inside Friday's range, the settle finished at 87.8 percent of the 91.8 point range, and the gain was the largest since 09/03/26, ending a run of three lower settles. In this review's interpretation crude set the tone: December WTI fell 7.36 percent after reports carried by the news feed on diplomacy between the United States and Iran, the dollar index eased to 101.75 and the ten-year yield index to 4.89 percent. Silver rose 3.27 percent. Electronic trade after the 1:30 PM ET settlement ended at 3,956.6, 13.0 beneath the settle. Even after the rebound the settle sits beneath every settlement average from the 5-day to the 200-day, Friday's 3,879.3 low remains the published 52-week low, and negative direction leads on the 9-day and 14-day directional systems. The composite multi-indicator read is quoted as published: "88% SELL", unchanged from "88% SELL" a session earlier and "88% SELL" a week ago, against "80% SELL" a month ago. Market pricing showed a 74 percent chance of a quarter-point Fed increase at the next meeting, per the provider's commentary and unconfirmed. In this review's interpretation the bias stays lower while the contract holds beneath one standard deviation resistance at 4,040.7, with a further rebound toward Pivot R1 at 4,003.9 and the 5-day average at 4,005.2 the more likely first test. Factory orders and the JOLTS report are scheduled for 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, per the verified forward calendar, and the midterm elections take place on Tuesday, per the news-feed calendar and unconfirmed. Resistance: - 4,040.7 one standard deviation resistance - 4,038.3 Pivot R2 - 4,031.4 9-day settlement average - 4,018.0 38.2 percent retracement from the four-week low - 4,005.2 5-day settlement average - 4,003.9 Pivot R1 - 3,981.6 raw stochastic projection at 30 percent - 3,980.8 Monday's session high Support: - 3,969.6 Monday's settle - 3,956.6 post-settlement print at the 4:30 PM ET bar - 3,946.5 Pivot Point - 3,931.1 published target price - 3,912.1 Pivot S1 - 3,898.5 one standard deviation support - 3,889.0 Monday's session low - 3,879.3 52-week low Primary Setup: SHORT the December contract from the 4,000 to 4,010 band around Pivot R1 at 4,003.9 and the 5-day average at 4,005.2. Stop 4,030, above the 4,018.0 retracement from the four-week low and beneath the 9-day average at 4,031.4. Targets at 3,980 first, beneath Monday's 3,980.8 high, 3,955 second, above the Pivot Point at 3,946.5, and 3,930 third, at the published target price of 3,931.1. Risk to reward is roughly 1:1 to the first objective, 1:2 to the second and 1:3 to the third from the entry midpoint. The 14-day average true range is 82.1 points against a 25 point stop distance. A settle above one standard deviation resistance at 4,040.7 negates the thesis; two consecutive 30-minute closes above 4,010 remove the edge before the stop is reached. The setup needs a further rebound to engage, and a JOLTS figure read as reducing the chance of a rate increase is the main risk to a short, which makes this an analyst judgment that rebounds beneath the short averages are sold. All levels are the December contract's. Monday's 3,969.6 settle rebounded inside Friday's range but beneath every settlement average. In this review's interpretation Tuesday is a test of whether the rebound stalls near Pivot R1 at 4,003.9, or whether it extends through one standard deviation resistance at 4,040.7.