XAUUSD — Can 3930 Trigger Another Selloff? GoldOANDA:XAUUSDEthan_TraderPro Gold is attempting a short-term recovery, but the broader bearish structure remains firmly intact. After breaking below the psychological 4,000 level, XAUUSD extended its decline towards 3,870 before recovering to around 3,904. Now buyers are approaching another important test. The 3,918–3,930 resistance zone sits directly above current price, while the FVG around 3,945–3,955 creates another potential selling area. My primary bias remains bearish below 3,955, with 3,870 and 3,820 as the main downside objectives. MARKET STRUCTURE — SELLERS STILL HAVE CONTROL Gold continues to form lower highs and lower lows following its rejection from the 4,060–4,080 region. The breakdown below 4,020 and the former support around 3,980 confirmed further weakness in the short-term structure. From an ICT perspective, the latest bearish displacement indicates that sellers are still targeting lower sell-side liquidity. Although buyers have produced a small recovery from 3,870, there is no confirmed bullish Market Structure Shift (MSS) capable of reversing the broader bearish structure. Until the market establishes higher lows and reclaims significant resistance, I continue to treat rallies as corrective movements. 3918–3930 — THE FIRST SELLING OPPORTUNITY? The first important resistance sits around 3,918–3,930. This zone represents the nearest recovery barrier following the recent breakdown. If gold moves into this area and produces bearish rejection, sellers may attempt another continuation lower. A lower-timeframe bearish MSS following the rejection would strengthen that scenario. However, sustained acceptance above 3,930 could allow price to extend towards the next FVG resistance. 3945–3955 — THE FVG THAT MATTERS The 3,945–3,955 region is the next major technical decision area. This zone overlaps with the marked Fair Value Gap and intermediate resistance, creating a potential location for renewed selling pressure. If buyers push gold into this area but fail to maintain higher prices, the bearish continuation scenario becomes more attractive. However, a successful reclaim above 3,955 would weaken the immediate selling pressure and potentially open a deeper recovery. The higher resistance around 4,020–4,033 would then become relevant. VOLUME PROFILE — WHY 4020 REMAINS IMPORTANT The Volume Profile highlights significant trading activity around 4,020–4,030. This area previously acted as an important trading region before sellers pushed gold lower. Now that price is trading beneath it, the zone represents major overhead resistance. However, concentrated volume alone does not confirm selling pressure. What matters is whether buyers can establish sustained acceptance above the region. Until that happens, the broader structure continues to favour sellers. 3893 AND 3870 — THE NEXT DOWNSIDE DECISION The immediate reference is 3,893.771, which price has recently recovered above. If gold loses this level again and fails to reclaim it, sellers could target the recent lows around 3,870. A sustained breakdown below those lows may expose 3,850 and eventually the projected lower liquidity target around 3,820. However, if buyers defend 3,893 and successfully reclaim 3,930, the immediate bearish momentum could weaken. MY TRADING SCENARIOS Scenario One — Bearish Continuation (Priority) Gold recovers towards 3,918–3,930 or potentially 3,945–3,955. If sellers confirm rejection through bearish displacement and a lower-timeframe MSS, another decline becomes possible. Downside objectives: 3,893 → 3,870 → 3,850–3,820. Scenario Two — Stronger Corrective Recovery Buyers successfully reclaim 3,930 and maintain higher lows. A sustained breakout above 3,955 could support further recovery towards 3,980 and eventually 4,020–4,033. However, this would initially remain a corrective recovery within the broader bearish trend. Scenario Three — Lower Liquidity Sweep Gold breaks below 3,893 and extends beneath the recent lows around 3,870. If selling pressure persists, 3,850–3,820 becomes the next projected downside region. A bullish reversal would require a strong liquidity reclaim and confirmed bullish MSS rather than simply reaching the target. ETHAN'S KEY TRADING ZONES Current Price: 3,904.085 4,020–4,033 — Major Recovery Resistance / Volume Profile 3,945–3,955 — Intermediate Resistance / FVG 3,918–3,930 — Secondary Recovery Resistance 3,893.771 — Immediate Structural Pivot 3,870 — Recent Low / Sell-Side Liquidity 3,850–3,820 — Extended Bearish Liquidity Targets Bullish Confirmation: Sustained reclaim above 3,930, higher lows and confirmed bullish MSS. Bearish Confirmation: Rejection at 3,918–3,955 followed by bearish displacement, or a confirmed breakdown below 3,893. Short-Term Bearish Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above 3,955 with a successful retest. ETHAN'S FINAL VIEW Gold remains bearish despite the latest recovery attempt. The loss of 4,000, continued lower highs and strong bearish displacement suggest that sellers still control the broader market. My preferred scenario is a corrective recovery towards 3,918–3,930, potentially extending into the 3,945–3,955 FVG before another selling reaction. If sellers regain control, 3,893 and 3,870 become the immediate downside objectives, followed by 3,820 if the decline accelerates. Four levels define the next move. 4,020 — The major recovery barrier. 3,955 — The upper resistance controlling the current bearish scenario. 3,930 — The first important test for buyers. 3,893 — The level that could trigger another bearish extension. The trend still favours sellers, but confirmation remains essential. Will gold reject 3,930 and continue towards 3,820, or can buyers reclaim 3,955 and challenge the bearish structure?