PETER BAKER, DYLAN FREEDMAN2026年11月2日 Alex Kent/The New York TimesAs he opened his speech at a recent campaign rally in Greenville, N.C., President Trump told the story of the Willie Horton crime case that helped sink the presidential campaign of the Democrat Michael S. Dukakis in 1988.最近在北卡罗来纳州格林维尔一场竞选集会上开场时， 特朗普总统讲述了威利·霍顿的罪案故事。该案件曾在1988年重创民主党人迈克尔·S·杜卡基斯的总统竞选。And then, 30 minutes later, still speaking at the same rally to the same audience from the same lectern, Mr. Trump told the same Willie Horton story all over again, using some of the same language (and getting the facts wrong both times).30分钟后，同一场集会、同一群听众、同一个讲台，特朗普又把威利·霍顿的故事讲了一遍，部分措辞与之前相同，而且两次都把事实讲错了。Mr. Trump, who last year became the oldest person ever inaugurated as president and turned 80 in June, has demonstrated physical stamina as he barnstorms the country in advance of midterm elections. But his performances on the road and at the White House this fall have produced many head-scratching moments that have revived questions about his age and stability.特朗普去年就职时成为美国历史上年龄最大的总统，今年6月年满80岁。他在中期选举前奔走全国，展现出身体耐力。但今年秋天他在旅途和白宫的表现中出现了许多令人费解的时刻，重新引发了关于他年龄和精神状态的疑问。He can be forgetful and repetitive. He is more long-winded, more profane and more absolutist than when he ran for president a decade ago. His rambling speeches seem even more garbled at times. He makes comments that leave people wondering what he is talking about or that sound like he is saying something he is not. And even for a president who has never fully observed the norms of the office, he seems more willing to say things no other president would say.他会健忘，会重复。与十年前竞选总统时相比，他的表达更冗长、更粗俗、更绝对化。他漫无边际的演讲有时变得愈发难以理解。他的一些言论让人摸不着头脑，或者听起来似乎词不达意。即便对于一位从未完全遵循总统职位规范的总统来说，他似乎也更愿意说出其他总统不会说的话。He declared that at an unfenced construction site “only a Hispanic could survive that fall.” He wants to ban immigrants from Norway “because I didn’t get the Nobel Prize.” He says “I don’t give a damn” if he is seen as caring more about oil company profits than struggling workers. He mispronounces the Strait of Hormuz as the “Hormone Strait.” He has told supporters to “cheat like hell” in the Nov. 3 elections. He says military leakers “should be shot.” And then there is his baffling fixation with admiring men’s posteriors.他声称，在一个没有围栏的建筑工地上，“只有西语裔才能那么摔都没摔死”。他想禁止挪威移民，“因为我没拿到诺贝尔奖”。他说自己“毫不在乎”外界是否认为他更关心石油公司利润而非处境艰难的工人。他把霍尔木兹海峡念成“荷尔蒙海峡”。他让支持者在11月3日的选举中“往死里作弊”。他说军方泄密者“应该被枪毙”。还有他那种欣赏男性臀部的令人费解的执念。Even Mr. Trump seems astonished at times by what comes out of his mouth — and by how much his supporters embrace him nonetheless. “I could say the stupidest things and you’d clap. ‘Oh, I love you so,’” he marveled at a recent rally in Clarksville, Tenn. “But we don’t say the stupidest things,” he quickly added. “We say things of common sense. We say things that make sense.”有时连特朗普本人似乎都对自己说出口的话感到惊讶，也对支持者依然如此拥戴他感到惊讶。“我可以说最蠢的话，你们照样鼓掌。‘哦，我好爱你啊，’”他在最近田纳西州克拉克斯维尔的一场集会上感叹道。“但我们不说最蠢的话，”他马上补充道，“我们讲常理。我们说有道理的话。”For Mr. Trump, making sense often places second to having fun at rallies, and some outrageous remarks appear aimed at generating a laugh. His allies say too much is made of comments that are really just jokes. He has always been a provocative speaker, willing to outrage for the sake of outrage. Mr. Trump defends his stream-of-consciousness rambling as a “brilliant” speaking style that he calls “the weave.”对特朗普来说，讲道理常常要让位于在集会上找乐子，一些出格言论似乎就是为了博人一笑。他的盟友说，那些话其实只是玩笑，外界过度解读了。他一直是个挑衅型演讲者，愿意为激怒而激怒。特朗普为自己意识流式的漫谈辩护，称这是一种他叫做“编织”的“出色”演讲风格。But the weave seems to be getting weavier. An A.I.-assisted New York Times review of Mr. Trump’s comments from speeches, rallies, social media, interviews and public meetings found significant changes since he began a run for president at age 69 in 2015, although not as much of a notable shift since 2024 when a similar review was conducted. Broadly speaking, the review concluded, Mr. Trump’s public communication is more vulgar, more uninhibited and less coherent than it was a decade ago.但“编织”似乎越来越“绕”。《纽约时报》借助人工智能查验了特朗普在演讲、集会、社交媒体、采访和公开会议中的言论，发现自他2015年69岁开始竞选总统以来出现了明显变化，不过与2024年进行类似查验时相比变化幅度没有那么显著。总体结论是特朗普的公共表达比十年前更粗俗、更无所顾忌、更缺乏连贯性。“He’s saying so many stupid things, even for him, so many outrageous and aggressive things,” said former Representative Francis Rooney, a Republican from Florida. “This aggressive kind of attack language, that’s something I’ve never heard from a president.”“他说了太多蠢话，就算按他的标准也太多，太多出格和攻击性的话，”佛罗里达州前共和党众议员弗朗西斯·鲁尼说。“这种攻击性语言，我从未从任何一位总统口中听到过。”The White House denied that Mr. Trump has lost a step. Davis Ingle, a White House spokesman, hailed his “sharpness, unmatched energy, relentless work ethic and historic accessibility” and dismissed concerns about his provocative comments.白宫否认特朗普精力衰退。白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔称赞特朗普“敏锐、精力无人能及、工作态度不懈，在可及性上堪称前无古人”，并驳斥了外界对其挑衅性言论的担忧。“The president doesn’t care about being politically correct, he cares about making America great again,” Mr. Ingle said. “The American people love how authentic, transparent and effective the president is.”“总统不在乎政治正确，他在乎的是让美国再次伟大，”英格尔说。“美国人民热爱总统的真实、透明和高效。”The ‘Freaking Genius’“十足的天才”10月，特朗普在亚利桑那州布尔海德市的一场集会上吹嘘自己通过了一项通常用于筛查认知衰退的快速测试。Measuring the effects of age can be difficult without a medical exam, although that has not stopped many physicians, political commentators and everyday Americans from drawing conclusions about Mr. Trump based on what they see on television.没有医学检查，很难衡量年龄带来的影响，但这并没有阻止许多医生、政治评论员和普通美国人根据电视上看到的内容对特朗普下结论。The Times review from 2015 through Thursday found that the president in his second term has used 19 percent more all-or-nothing words like “always,” “never,” “everything” and “totally” at rallies than he did a decade ago and 5 percent more than in 2024, a sign of black-and-white thinking that experts say often accompanies advancing age or cognitive decline. He is cruder than he used to be, using nearly 15 swear words per 10,000 words compared with 14 two years ago and six a decade ago, a change consistent with age-related disinhibition.《纽约时报》从2015年到本周四的回顾发现，特朗普在第二任期集会上使用“总是”“从不”“一切”“完全”等非黑即白词语的频率比十年前高19%，比2024年高5%。专家说，这种黑白思维往往伴随年龄增长或认知衰退出现。他也比以前更粗鲁，每1万个词中脏话接近15个，两年前为14个，十年前为6个，这一变化符合因年龄增长导致自我抑制力减退（脱抑制）的特征。The review, relying on an A.I.-assisted metric, found that he makes rambling or confusing digressions in his rallies and speeches two and a half times as often in his second term as in the 2016 campaign, although roughly the same as in 2024. His vocabulary remains about the same, as does the reading level of his speaking, which hovers between fourth and fifth grade. (The average modern president speaks at an eighth-grade level.)本次回顾采用人工智能辅助指标，发现特朗普在第二任期的集会和演讲中漫无边际或令人困惑的离题频率是2016年竞选期间的2.5倍，但与2024年大致相同。他的词汇量基本没变，演讲的易读性也大致没变，徘徊在四五年级水平。（现代总统的平均演讲水平为八年级。）Mr. Trump’s public schedule is thinner, down to 1.3 events per weekday versus 2.1 in the first term. But he is posting online an average of 21 times a day, up from 13 a day in 2016 although down from 34 a day two years ago. The night owl president has posted messages between midnight and 5 a.m. on 30 percent of his nights in his second term and has had 240 bursts of 10 or more posts an hour.特朗普的公开日程更稀疏了，从第一任期每个工作日2.1场活动降至1.3场。但他在网上平均每天发帖21次，高于2016年的13次，低于两年前的34次。这位夜猫子总统在第二任期有30%的夜晚在午夜至凌晨5点之间发帖，并有240次在一小时内发帖10条以上。The president’s doctor has said that Mr. Trump is mentally sharp. In a three-page summary released in May, Dr. Sean P. Barbabella, the White House physician, noted that Mr. Trump had scored 30 out of 30 on the Montreal Cognitive Assessment. “Cognitive and physical performance are excellent,” he wrote.总统的医生表示特朗普头脑敏锐。在5月发布的一份三页摘要中，白宫医生肖恩·P·巴尔巴贝拉指出，特朗普在蒙特利尔认知评估中得分30分，满分30分。“认知和身体表现均出色，”他写道。The Montreal assessment is a quick test to screen for Alzheimer’s disease or other cognitive impairment and includes basic questions like identifying a lion, camel and rhinoceros; drawing a clock; repeating words or numbers in order; and naming as many words as possible in one minute that start with the letter F. “Nobody can do this,” Mr. Trump insisted a couple weeks ago, adding: “But I can. You know why? Because I’m a freaking genius!”蒙特利尔评估是一种快速筛查阿尔茨海默病或其他认知障碍的测试，包括辨认狮子、骆驼和犀牛，画钟，按顺序复述词语或数字，以及在一分钟内尽可能多地说出以字母F开头的词等基本题目。“没人做得到这个，”特朗普几周前坚称，随后补充道：“但我能。知道为什么吗？因为我是个十足的天才！”‘I Don’t Give a Damn’“我毫不在乎”While Mr. Trump has been known to nod off during White House meetings, he draws energy from crowds when he is on the road. He speaks and speaks and speaks — twice as long as in 2016, according to the Times review, for an average of 85 minutes per rally compared with 42 minutes a decade ago.特朗普以在白宫会议上打瞌睡而出名，但一到外面就从人群中汲取能量。据时报的回顾，他讲个不停——时长是2016年的两倍，平均每场集会85分钟，十年前为42分钟。He is profoundly and proudly undisciplined. He says things that are manifestly unhelpful to him. Even as many Americans are upset about the cost of filling their gas tank, he said in Perry, Ga., the other day that high oil prices were good because the fossil fuel industry was making hundreds of billions of dollars. Even as he said it, he acknowledged it would produce bad headlines. “I don’t give a damn,” he said. “I’m going to say it. We’re making a freaking fortune.”他极度缺乏自律，而且对此引以为豪。他说一些明显对自己不利的话。就在许多美国人为加油成本烦恼之际，他前几天在佐治亚州佩里说，高油价是好事，因为化石燃料行业正在赚取数千亿美元。话一出口，他自己也承认这会带来负面新闻。“我毫不在乎，”他说。“我就是要说。我们正在赚大钱。”He wanders from thought to thought, often without finishing a sentence, embedding one off-the-cuff story within another. In Pendleton, S.C., he started talking about transgender athletes, interrupted to tell a story about someone he met in Israel, referred to a poll without explaining its results and then riffed on climate change.他从一个念头跳到另一个念头，常常一句话没说完就嵌入另一个即兴故事。在南卡罗来纳州彭德尔顿，他先谈跨性别运动员，中途插进一段在以色列遇到某人的故事，提到一项民调却不解释结果，接着又即兴谈起气候变化。‘He’s All Man’“他是个纯爷们”Like many people in their ninth decade, he is prone to say things that seem inappropriate. His focus on the male anatomy, for instance, has become remarkably pronounced lately.像许多80多岁的人一样，他容易说一些似乎不合时宜的话。比如，他对男性身体的关注最近变得格外突出。“I don’t do this with men very often,” Mr. Trump said at a rally with Senator Jon Husted, Republican of Ohio, on Oct. 12. “I started examining his body because I didn’t know he was a great athlete. And I looked and I watched up and down. I looked at his ass.”“我不常对男人这样，”特朗普10月12日在俄亥俄州共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德同台的集会上说。“我开始打量他的身体，因为我不知道他是个优秀运动员。我上看下看。我看了他的屁股。”Five days later, he repeated his appreciation of Mr. Husted’s backside. “I examined his ass,” Mr. Trump said at a rally in Kentucky. “I never did that with, no, I never did that with a man before.” Three days later in North Carolina, he praised Mr. Husted’s derrière again. “His ass is, it’s like a pile of muscle,” he said. In Chillicothe, he did it again: “I started by looking at his ass, and it was strong as hell.”五天后，他又表达了对赫斯特德的臀部的欣赏。“我打量了他的屁股，”特朗普在肯塔基州一场集会上说。“我以前从没这样过，没有，我以前从没对男人这样过。”三天后在北卡罗来纳州，他再次称赞赫斯特德的臀部。“他的屁股，就像一堆肌肉，”他说。在奇利科西，他又来了一次：“我先是看他的屁股，强壮得很。”Mr. Husted is not the only object of Mr. Trump’s manly approval. Among the others:赫斯特德并非特朗普男性化赞赏的唯一对象。其他还包括：Senator Tim Scott, Republican of South Carolina: “As much as I can fall in love with a man, which isn’t that much, I fall in love with him, and his name happens to be Tim Scott.”南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员蒂姆·斯科特：“能让我爱上的男人能有几个——没多少——但我爱上了他，他正好叫蒂姆·斯科特。”The spouse of Senator Darline Graham, the other South Carolina Republican: “He’s a good-looking husband.”另一位南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆的配偶：“他是个英俊的丈夫。”Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the health and human services secretary: “He’s got the body of a 30-year-old.”小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪，卫生与公众服务部长：“他有一副30岁的身体。”Representative Mike Collins, Republican of Georgia: “Mike Collins is a good-looking man. And he’s all man.”佐治亚州共和党众议员迈克·柯林斯：“迈克·柯林斯是个英俊的男人。而且他是个纯爷们。”In Michigan on Sunday, Mr. Trump made a point of praising a woman’s backside for a change. “I looked at one hell of a beautiful ass before — Nicki Minaj,” he told the crowd. “That’s hard to miss.”周日在密歇根州，特朗普破例夸了一位女性的臀部。“我以前看过一个极其漂亮的屁股——妮琪·米娜，”他告诉人群。“想不注意都难。”A Quick Temper暴躁易怒“你是有病吗？”10月20日，在椭圆形办公室被问及东波托马克高尔夫球场项目时，特朗普对一名记者吼道。 Alex Kent/The New York TimesMr. Trump has always displayed fits of public anger in ways that other presidents have not. But he seems even more prone to pounce these days.特朗普向来会当众发怒，方式与其他总统不同。但他如今似乎更容易突然发难。He snaps at reporters so often now that he barely waits for their questions before calling them “sick” and ordering, “Quiet!” When a reporter asked on Thursday if he was canceling a trip to Kansas because he was tired of traveling, Mr. Trump accosted his physical appearance. “You are disgusting! Put yourself in shape. You look like hell.”他现在斥责记者如此频繁，几乎不等对方开口就先骂“有病”，再喝令“安静！”周四，一名记者问他是否因为厌倦出行而取消堪萨斯之行，特朗普转而攻击对方的外貌。“你真恶心！去练练身材。你看起来糟透了。”His exhortations to supporters to vote have grown more vulgar and violent as well. “If you do that,” he said in Vandalia, Ohio, “we’re going to win and we’re going to win big. And we’re going to shove it up their ass, OK?”他对支持者投票的鼓动也变得更粗俗、更暴力。“你们要是这么做，”他在俄亥俄州万达利亚说，“我们就会赢，会大赢。咱们就给它塞他们的屁股里，是吧？”He depicts himself as all-powerful. “I can do whatever I want,” he told reporters in the Oval Office recently. As if to prove it, he regularly tries to rename bodies of water after America or himself. He demanded that tech companies stop using the term artificial intelligence, preferring instead “super intelligence”; those that disobey, he wrote online, are “THE ENEMY!”他把自己描绘成无所不能。“我想做什么就做什么，”他最近在椭圆形办公室对记者说。仿佛为了证明这一点，他经常试图以美国或自己的名字重新命名水域。他要求科技公司停止使用“人工智能”一词，改用“超级智能”；他在网上写道，不服从的公司就是“敌人！”These days, even Mr. Trump seems aware that eyes are on him, watching and waiting. “I love the weave,” he told the midterm Republican convention in Dallas in September. “You know what the weave is? You talk about something, then you bring in a ballroom or you bring in an airplane or you bring in Air Force One. But you notice I always get right back to the same topic.”如今，连特朗普本人似乎也意识到大家都在盯着他，看他会有什么表现。“我喜欢编织，”他9月在达拉斯对中期共和党大会说。“知道什么是编织吗？你谈一件事，然后扯进一个宴会厅，或者一架飞机，或者空军一号。但你会发现我总是回到同一个话题。”And yet, he went on, “when someday, there’ll be a time when I do the weave is weave, weave. Someday, there’ll be a time when I don’t get back to the original subject, and then you can say he’s had it. OK? You can say then he’s had it.”但他接着说，“总有一天，会有一个时候，我编织起来就是编织、编织、编织。总有一天，会有一个时候，我没回到最初的话题，那时候你们就可以说他不行了。好吗？到时候你们就可以说他不行了。”方法论时报利用Roll Call的Factba.se从2015年到今年10月下旬的数据，收集了特朗普数千份演讲、采访、社交媒体帖子和日程。为量化特朗普对非黑即白语言和脏话的使用，我们统计了他各总统任期和竞选期间的基本词频。为识别令人困惑和漫无边际的段落，我们使用人工智能模型Claude Opus 5.5，根据我们此前报道中分析特朗普漫谈和粗俗语言的详细指引，对超过6500段特朗普演讲进行评分。按照这套评分标准——它基于对数百段文字的人工审查以及为确保高准确性所做的评估——一段演讲得分至少达到七分（满分10分），即计为不连贯。Peter Baker是《纽约时报》首席白宫记者。特朗普是他报道的第六任美国总统，有时他也撰写将总统和美国政府置于更宏观的背景和历史框架下的分析性文章。Dylan Freedman是时报人工智能项目编辑，负责调查各种相关话题。他既有记者经验，也有机器学习工程师经验。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。