Labor returns to equal term low primary vote in Newspoll

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Labor’s primary vote dropped two points to 27% in Newspoll, equalling the mid-September Newspoll for their lowest this term. It’s one point off Labor’s record low in 2011. Pauline Hanson’s net approval jumped eight points to -1.There have been three other recent federal polls, from DemosAU, Essential and Morgan. The total vote for One Nation and the Coalition was 49% in Newspoll (up one), 50% in DemosAU (up four), 51% in Essential (up four) and 46% in Morgan (up 0.5). Economic problems are probably hurting Labor.The Coalition has gained one to four points in all these polls. They overtook One Nation in the Morgan poll and were two points behind in DemosAU.Federal NewspollA national Newspoll, conducted October 26–29 from a sample of 1,200, gave One Nation 28% of the primary vote (steady since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago), Labor 27% (down two), the Coalition 21% (up one), the Greens 13% (down one) and all Others 11% (up two).This is an equal term low primary vote for Labor, matching the mid-September Newspoll. Labor’s record low was 26% when Julia Gillard was prime minister in 2011.No two-party estimate was provided, but there would be a swing to the right given the primary vote movements.Anthony Albanese’s net approval was up one point to -23 (59% dissatisfied, 36% satisfied). Angus Taylor’s was up one point to -10, his best since June (47% dissatisfied, 37% satisfied). Hanson’s jumped eight points to -1, her best since August (48% dissatisfied, 47% satisfied).This is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll with a smoothed line. His net approval is four points off its record low in mid-September, but it’s been at or below -15 since late February.In the traditional preferred PM question, Albanese led Taylor by just 42–40% (previously 44–39%). In a three-way forced choice question, Albanese had 44% (down one), Hanson 30% (steady) and Taylor 26% (up one). After preferences from Taylor’s voters, Albanese led Hanson by 56–44%.Respondents were asked their opinions of seven Labor ministers. Treasurer Jim Chalmers was the most unpopular, with 40% dissatisfied and 24% satisfied, with Chris Bowen and Tony Burke also unpopular (respectively 32% dissatisfied, 19% satisfied and 26% dissatisfied, 19% satisfied).Penny Wong (38% satisfied, 36% dissatisfied) and Tanya Plibersek (26% satisfied, 25% dissatisfied) were the most popular ministers. Fifty-four percent had never heard of either Richard Marles or Mark Butler.DemosAU pollA national DemosAU poll for Capital Brief, conducted October 2326 from a sample of 1,500, gave Labor 26% of the primary vote (down two since the mid-September DemosAU regular poll), One Nation 26% (steady), the Coalition 24% (up four), the Greens 13% (steady) and all Others 11% (down two).No two-party estimate was given, but seat projections gave Labor 64–77 of the 150 House of Representatives seats (72–85 in the August to September DemosAU MRP poll), the Coalition 37–56 (25–44 previously), One Nation 18–32 (22–35 previously), the Greens 0–4 (0–3 previously) and others 4–8 (5–10 previously). These projections apply uniform swing to the previous MRP poll.Albanese’s net positive score was down four points to -20 (46% negative, 26% positive). Taylor’s was up five points to +1 (27% positive, 26% negative). Hanson’s was down two points to -14 (45% negative, 31% positive). Greens leader David Shoebridge’s was -16 (32% negative, 16% positive).In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 36% (steady), Hanson 23% (down two) and Taylor 22% (up one). In head to head match-ups, Albanese led Taylor by 39–38% (previously 39–37%). He led Hanson by 43–33% (previously 45–33%).Essential pollA national Essential poll, conducted October 21–25 from a sample of 1,003, gave Labor 28% of the primary vote (down one since the late September Essential poll), One Nation 28% (up three), the Coalition 23% (up one), the Greens 12% (steady), independents 6% (steady) and undecided 4% (down two).By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 52–44%, reversing a 48–46% Labor lead in September. This is the Coalition’s biggest lead from Essential this term. No Labor vs One Nation two-party estimate was provided. Weak preference flows to Labor and a low Others vote are features of Essential’s polls, but Redbridge in early October gave the Coalition a 54–46 lead over Labor. Strong preference flows from One Nation to the Coalition are hurting Labor.In Morgan below and in the previous Redbridge poll, Labor was doing better against One Nation than the Coalition. This implies that Labor would benefit if One Nation stays ahead of the Coalition.Albanese’s net approval in Essential was down one point to -18 (56% disapprove, 38% approve). His net approval was three points above his record low in late August. Taylor’s net approval jumped seven points from an equal record low to -5.On social and economic inequality in Australia, 61% thought it is increasing (up four since February 2025), 25% staying the same (down four) and 8% decreasing (down two).On Australia’s alignment with the US, 63% (up five since September 2025) wanted us to be less like the US and 13% (down four) more like the US.On the November 3 US midterm elections, 32% wanted Democrats to control both chambers of Congress, 12% Republican control and 16% wanted split control.Morgan pollA national Morgan poll, conducted October 12–25 from a sample of 2,711, gave Labor 26% of the primary vote (steady since the early October Morgan poll), the Coalition 23.5% (up two), One Nation 22.5% (down 1.5), the Greens 15.5% (up 0.5) and all others 12.5% (down one). It’s the first time the Coalition has led One Nation in a Morgan poll since mid-July.By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 52.5–47.5%, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition. Labor led One Nation by 55–45%, a 0.5-point gain for Labor. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 53–47%, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition.Resolve questions on AIAdditional questions on AI have been released, presumably from the early October Resolve poll for Nine newspapers. By 81–6%, respondents supported regulating AI, up from 69–9% support in August 2025. By 33–32%, they opposed Australia “attracting US tech companies to invest in AI datacentres in Australia”.Federal DemosAU Queensland pollI previously reported on a Queensland state DemosAU poll that was conducted October 14–21 from a sample of 1,200. In the federal poll, reported by The Poll Bludger, One Nation had 31% of the primary vote, the Coalition 24%, Labor 23%, the Greens 12% and all Others 10%.Right-wing bloc loses majority at Israeli electionI covered last Tuesday’s Israeli election for The Poll Bludger. Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition won 53 of the 120 seats (down 11 since the 2022 election), the Jewish opposition 48 seats (up two) and Arab parties 19 (up nine). Anti-Netanyahu parties have an overall 67–53 majority, if they can work together to oust him.Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.