US midterms: On November 3, the largest economy in the world — the United States — is scheduled to conduct its midterm elections. The outcome of these midterms dictates the balance of power in the American national legislature, state governorships, and thousands of local offices. Both the American Senate and House of Representatives — the two bodies which comprise Congress — are set to witness strong competition.India functions as a Parliamentary democracy and does not follow the system of midterm elections, but in the US, they can have a major impact on policy decisions even when the government remains the same. We explain.The Executive comprises the President — currently Donald Trump — and his administration.The Legislative, directly elected by the people, is the US Congress composed of the US Senate and the US House of Representatives. Lastly, the judiciary is the Supreme Court and federal judiciary. The US operates on a strict separation of powers.The President is elected independently of the legislature, which is bicameral.The lower chamber, termed the House of Representatives, consists of 435 voting members, directly elected, who serve two-year terms. The seats in this House are allocated on the basis of the population of the state. For example, California and Texas hold more seats than states like Wyoming or Iowa. The upper chamber — referred to as the Senate — consists of 100 members. Here, regardless of the population, each state is represented by two Senators serving six-year terms.Story continues below this adWhen a federal bill — applicable to all 50 states — has to be passed, it must be approved by both the House of Representatives and the Senate before it is elevated to the President, who signs it into effect.The party with the most seats in the chamber is referred to as the majority party, which grants it the power to select leadership. The Speaker of the House, currently Lousinia’s Mike Johnson, is the presiding officer of the House and controls the lower chamber’s legislative agenda. In the Senate, the Majority leader dictates the proceedings.The two chambers of Congress have distinct powers. The House of Representatives must initiate bills to raise federal revenue and has the exclusive power to impeach federal officials. The Senate confirms presidential appointments, approves treaties, and conducts impeachment trials.Both chambers must pass a bill for it to become law, making control of either chamber consequential for the President’s legislative agenda.Story continues below this adWhat are midterms elections in the US?Midterm elections occur exactly halfway through a president’s four-year term.During these elections, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and roughly one-third of the 100 Senate seats (33 or 34 seats) are contested. These elections widely serve as a referendum on the sitting president’s administration and performance.American elections are also highly decentralised in nature.Elections are conducted using a first-past-the-post system, where the candidate with the highest number of votes wins the seat. Before the general election, the Republican and Democratic parties — the two main national parties — select their candidates through state-level “primaries” or “caucuses,” where registered party members vote for their preferred nominee.For voters, there are state-wise voter registration rules which vary. Furthermore, because local, state, and federal elections occur simultaneously, no two voters across the country receive the exact same ballot. Depending on their state’s laws, Americans can cast their votes via postal ballots, early in-person voting, or traditional Election Day voting. Because of this, final results can take days.Story continues below this adElection results determine how the country is governed through 2028 when the general elections are scheduled.A win by the Republican party would empower Trump to advance his agenda whereas a Democratic House would introduce legislative gridlock and oversight to Trump’s policy leanings. A steep enough win for the Democrats may empower them to raise the process of impeachment which requires a two-thirds conviction vote in the Senate to oust the sitting President.So, what is the 2026 midterm arena looking like?The 119th Congress is currently defined by razor-thin margins. Midterm elections inevitably serve as a referendum on the sitting president, and 2026 is no exception.The field is highly competitive, though historical trends consistently penalise the president’s party. Over the last 23 midterm cycles, the incumbent president’s party has lost an average of 27 House seats and three Senate seats due to anti-incumbency sentiment and voter fatigue.Story continues below this adIn the Senate, Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage. Democrats require a net gain of four seats to flip the chamber, navigating difficult toss-up races in states like Texas, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska. In the House, the Republican majority is fragile, and generic ballot polling suggests Democrats possess a tangible path to reclaiming control.Since beginning his second term in 2025, Donald Trump’s administration has aggressively implemented his campaign agenda. Fulfilling his promise to dismantle the federal bureaucracy, Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiated dramatic budget cuts, eliminating approximately 264,000 positions from the federal workforce.While this delivered on conservative pledges, the broader economy is experiencing turbulence. Despite strong corporate earnings, core inflation recently rebounded to 2.6%, ensuring the cost of living remains a paramount concern for voters.Economic friction has also been compounded by conflicts such as the ongoing Iran War and aggressive trade policies — especially the ‘Trump Tariffs’.Story continues below this adFollowing joint US and Israeli military strikes against Iran in February this year, retaliatory measures in the Strait of Hormuz have severely disrupted global energy supply chains. This has pushed US gas prices to a peak of $4.50 a gallon.Simultaneously, Trump has rapidly executed his protectionist trade agenda via executive orders, establishing a 10% baseline global tariff on imports and elevating tariffs on Chinese goods to a punitive 125%. On the domestic front, while his promised mass deportation programs face friction from Supreme Court rulings limiting executive emergency powers, the administration has curtailed legal immigration and asylum.Why does India, and the world at large, care about US midterm elections?The US Constitution grants Congress the power to regulate foreign commerce and approve budgets. For India, the main buckets of interest are across technology, trade and defence ties with the US.In September 2025, the Trump administration overhauled the H-1B visa program to protect domestic workers, imposing a staggering $100,000 fee on new applications. Because Indian nationals account for over 70% of all H-1B approvals, this unilateral policy dealt a severe blow to India’s $200 billion IT services export industry, triggering a sharp decline in Indian student enrollment and workforce mobility.Trade relations have been equally volatile.Story continues below this adThe Trump administration levied a punitive 50% tariff on Indian goods in 2025 as a measure against India’s continued purchase of Russian crude oil. Following fraught bilateral negotiations, these tariffs were conditionally reduced to an interim 18% in early 2026, tied to reciprocal Indian concessions.Conversely, technological defense cooperation has deepened via the newly established TRUST (Transforming Relationship Utilising Strategic Technology) initiative, aimed at countering Chinese semiconductor dominance.A Democratic takeover of the House could introduce rigorous oversight over Trump’s policies over tariffs and Middle East interventions. This may potentially provide diplomatic and economic relief to Indian exporters.Neither US party, however, has been publicly eager to dismantle protectionist frameworks entirely, reflecting a bipartisan shift toward prioritising American supply chains.