For oil, the claim matters less for its specifics than for what it says about the risk around Tuesday’s midterms. Even without the nuclear element, the confirmed reporting points to a real chance of renewed US strikes on Iran soon after the vote, with Israel reportedly pushing for immediate action. That keeps a sizeable geopolitical premium in crude, and helps explain why banks such as Goldman Sachs are building supply disruption allowances into their forecasts (more to come on this). Against that, Trump’s stated preference to let Qatar-mediated talks run and Iran’s two-day reopening plan for Hormuz offer a path to de-escalation. Traders are likely to stay highly sensitive to headlines from Washington, Jerusalem and Tehran this week, with sharp moves possible in either direction.--A dramatic, unverified claim from Tucker Carlson has raised the stakes in the debate over what Trump does after the midterms, but the confirmed picture is of a president weighing strikes and talks at the same time.Summary:Tucker Carlson claimed on X that Trump may be days away from a nuclear strike on Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain, under pressure from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin NetanyahuCarlson cited an unnamed “informed observer” and said a decision could come by November 7, but also said Trump was hesitating and listening to advisers who favour a dealThe claim has not been independently verified; the White House said it does not comment on military plans, and Secretary of State Rubio has said no decision has been madeTrump said on Saturday the US still had one or two Iranian sites to deal with, including Pickaxe Mountain, which could be hit “in 10 minutes”, but that he was in no hurryAxios reported Netanyahu is pushing for a strike right after Tuesday’s midterms, while Trump wants to give negotiations a chance; Iran denies nuclear activity at the siteConservative commentator Tucker Carlson has claimed that President Donald Trump may be days away from launching a nuclear strike on Iran under pressure from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The claim has not been independently verified, and nothing in official statements or mainstream reporting supports the suggestion that nuclear weapons are being considered.In a post on X, Carlson said the target would be Pickaxe Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence believes Tehran has restarted uranium enrichment. He quoted an unnamed “informed observer” as saying that Netanyahu calls Trump about it every day, argued that no conventional weapon could destroy the site, and said Trump was likely to decide by November 7. Carlson also wrote that Trump was still hesitating and listening to Vice President JD Vance and envoy Steve Witkoff, who believe a deal with Iran is possible.Carlson has publicly broken with Trump over the Iran war and has previously said the president should have been removed from office for threatening the use of nuclear weapons.Some elements of the backdrop are confirmed. Speaking to reporters at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday, Trump said the United States had largely destroyed Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities but still needed to deal with one or two sites, naming Pickaxe Mountain, and said this could be done in 10 minutes. He also said negotiations with Iran were going fine, though he described Tehran as unreliable, and that he was not in much of a hurry to take further action.Axios reported that Trump and Netanyahu held a tense phone call on Saturday, citing Israeli and US sources. According to the report, Netanyahu is pressing for a strike immediately after Tuesday’s US midterm elections, while Trump wants to let negotiations play out for now.A White House official said the administration does not comment on sensitive military plans that may or may not exist, adding that Trump keeps all options on the table to ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said no final decision has been made on resuming strikes.Iran denies any nuclear activity at the Pickaxe Mountain complex, and its Supreme Leader has warned the United States and Israel against launching new attacks.The claims come as diplomacy continues on a separate track. Iranian officials have been holding talks with Qatari mediators on a plan Tehran says could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington meets its conditions, while Iran’s security chief has described a recent letter from Vance as signalling a more positive US tone. Whether Trump chooses talks or strikes after the midterms is likely to shape the next phase of the conflict. The use of nukes is horrible to contemplate. If anyone would do it I'd say this guy ranks near the top of the list though. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.