EURUSD H1 — Triangle at 0.618: Bearish 1.414 ProjectionEUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDRendra_AzrulsyahEURUSD is consolidating inside a contracting triangle. The rebound has tested the **0.618 retracement area**, making this a decision zone. Touching this level alone does not confirm a bearish breakout; the current H1 candle was still open at capture. **Bearish scenario** The bearish setup retains priority below **1.12067**. A confirmed rejection around 0.618, followed by a break of rising triangle support, would strengthen the continuation case. The previous swing area around **1.1135–1.1140** is an intermediate checkpoint. If sellers clear that area, the marked **1.414 CD projection targets 1.11172**. This remains a conditional technical objective. If triangle support holds, price can continue consolidating. **Bullish confirmation** Bullish confirmation requires an **H1 close above 1.12067**, approximately the 1.1206 level highlighted in the plan. A successful retest would strengthen confirmation. An intrabar wick is insufficient. A confirmed break above this level invalidates the current bearish setup and calls for a bullish reassessment. **Fundamental analysis — Base EUR versus Compare USD** **Base EUR: Neutral / Weak.** The ECB held its deposit rate at **2.50%**, while euro-area Q3 GDP expanded **0.4% quarter-on-quarter**. These support the euro. However, persistent inflation and energy costs create competing policy and growth risks. September HICP was **3.8% year-on-year**; October aggregate inflation remains unverified here. EUR therefore presents a mixed picture. (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html), (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-30102026-ap), (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-16102026-ap). **Compare USD: Mildly Bullish / Weak.** The Fed held rates at **3.75–4.00%**, with two members preferring a hike. US Q3 GDP grew **3.4% annualized**, supporting a relatively firm USD background. Slower core PCE inflation provides counterevidence. US annualized GDP and euro-area nonannualized quarterly GDP should not be compared directly as headline magnitudes. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm), (https://www.bea.gov/index.php/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-3rd-quarter-2026). **Cumulative conclusion: EUR Neutral Weak versus USD Bullish Weak produces a conditional EURUSD Bearish Weak tilt.** This is a qualitative assessment, not a calibrated probability or validation of the Fibonacci target. **Fundamental and upcoming catalysts** Known policy decisions and GDP releases provide background; they are not new shocks today. The important test is how new information differs from verified expectations and changes the relative policy outlook. No synchronized OIS/yield repricing is established here. US **ISM Manufacturing** is scheduled for **2 November, 23:00 WITA / 11:00 UTC−4**. Its actual and numerical surprise remain **pending**. Stronger activity alongside persistent price pressure could reinforce USD support; weaker activity with softer prices could challenge the bearish EURUSD view. Assess the components together. (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). Earlier ECB communication also matters: Vujčić’s speech is currently listed for **17:30 WITA / 05:30 UTC−4**, followed by a fireside chat at **18:00 WITA / 06:00 UTC−4**, on 2 November. These are communication events, not new rate decisions. (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/weekly/html/index.en.html). **Final view:** bearish continuation remains preferred below **1.12067**, with **1.11172** as the marked 1.414 objective after downside confirmation. Until triangle support breaks, compression remains possible. Bullish confirmation begins only above **1.12067**. Fundamentals support a weak bearish tilt, with new releases capable of changing that conclusion.