XAUUSD: Bearish Bias or a Relief Rally Ahead?GoldTVC:GOLDLostPigeonGold ended October under heavy selling pressure, trading around $3,875–3,885 after briefly testing the $3,850–3,870 area. Persistent inflation, resilient US economic growth and expectations of tighter Fed policy continue to weigh on the precious metal. However, I don’t think the latest sell-off is purely driven by gold-specific fundamentals. The sharp decline in US equities has triggered broader risk reduction and cascading liquidations across markets. When leveraged positions are forced to unwind, even traditional safe havens like gold can face temporary selling pressure as investors raise cash and meet margin requirements. This creates room for a technical recovery if forced selling begins to ease. In other words, gold may be approaching a short-term repair phase, although that does not necessarily mean the broader downtrend has ended. What to Expect Next Week? November 2–6 brings several important US economic releases: Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI Tuesday: JOLTS job openings Wednesday: ISM Services PMI Friday: October Nonfarm Payrolls Stronger-than-expected data could support the dollar and put further pressure on gold. Conversely, weaker data or easing liquidation pressure could help trigger a relief rally. My base case is volatile consolidation with a potential recovery, but downside risks remain. I see $3,780–4,000 as the key trading range to watch. Key Levels to Watch $3,850: Immediate support. A clean break could expose $3,800 and $3,780. $3,920–3,975: Initial recovery zone and potential resistance. $4,000–4,010: Major recovery threshold. Reclaiming this area would improve the short-term outlook. $4,100: Further upside target if bullish momentum returns. My Trading Strategy I would avoid aggressively shorting after such an extended decline, but I am also not ready to call a bottom. If gold holds $3,850 and forms a clear bullish structure on the 15-minute or 1-hour chart, I would consider a tactical long toward $3,920–3,975. If price breaks below $3,850 and fails to reclaim it, the recovery thesis would weaken, and I would watch for a bearish retest toward $3,800 and $3,780. My outlook for next week is cautiously optimistic about a short-term rebound, while remaining bearish on the broader structure until gold reclaims $4,000. The key question is whether selling pressure is finally exhausted or whether another round of forced liquidation is still ahead.