I don’t know what’s going on with the Survivor edit. I’m not saying fans can always tell who is going to win halfway through every season, but typically at this point, there are two or three strong contenders who more educated fans have coalesced around. That’s definitely not the case at this point in 51. Everyone is still all over the island with their predictions, and there’s perhaps no better example of that than Kristin Flickinger. Arguably the most universally liked contestant on 51 with the possible exception of Ori, Kristin has probably gotten the most consistently positive edit of any player. Every single time she’s on the screen, the editors seem invested in making her look good. We got a segment where she showed off her negotiation skills. We got a segment where we saw her winning over her tribemates after the swap. We’ve gotten multiple segments where she showed off her literal survival skills. We’ve gotten confessionals where she’s detailed all the strong relationships she has on the island. We even got a montage of all of her audition tapes over the years. It’s the kind of edit Survivor players dream about getting, but is it a winner’s edit? Well, fans and so-called Edgic experts are not on the same page at all. Some see her as overwhelmingly the most likely winner, and some see her as very likely to be eliminated deep into the merge but very explicitly prior to the endgame. Let’s talk out both sides.The case for Kristin as a winner is pretty clear and many in the community are making it, perhaps most prominently RHAP’s Shannon Guss. No one on the show has gotten more consistently positive content, and you could argue that a few times, the show even distorted the truth to make her content even more positive. For example, she was shown dunking on Kilby during the negotiation, even though anecdotal evidence later told us she didn’t necessarily get better supplies. That’s been a recurring theme. Even the negativity she’s gotten, which has mostly been from Maggie confessionals, has framed her more as dangerous than incompetent or annoying.If you dig a little deeper, however, there is actually some cause for concern with Kristin’s edit. Many in the community think she’s being framed as a fan favorite we’re supposed to be sad about exiting the game deep into the merge, and there’s definitely some evidence for that. First, while she’s been a consistent part of the show, there are actually seven players who have more confessionals than her at this point in the game: Devin, Jelly, Lewis, Kilby, Brady, Ori and Erik. She’s only middle of the pack among the players who are left, and that’s actually really bad considering she was picked for negotiation, went to exile island, got swap screwed and got prominently injured during an episode. Given all the plot-relevant moments she’s been involved in, it’s actually kind of weird she hasn’t gotten more content, which is probably because it keeps getting cut. An emotional scene between her and the Survivor doctor where she was informed she would be allowed to stay in the game got cut and released as an online exclusive. Another scene from this past episode where she explained what happened on Exile Island to her tribe got cut and also released as an online exclusive. Given she’s only in the middle of the pack on content, if she were the winner, it kind of feels like the show would find reasons to use her, not cut compelling scenes she’s involved in.To me, the most likely scenario is probably that she gets taken out in the 5 to 7 range. That’s typically the point in the game where all the remaining players work together to eliminate the people they think are most likely to win a jury vote, and as a strong public speaker with great relationships, a compelling backstory and a passion for the game, Kristin screams jury threat. There’s also the pesky issue of fire hanging over her head too. We’ve been repeatedly shown and the other players have repeatedly seen her making fire very quickly. She’s the type of player you have to eliminate before the final four, which is why that range just outside makes so much sense.I have no idea who is going to win this season (though I can guess who is going to lose) and by extension, I have no idea where Kristin is going to finish. All I know for sure is that she’s delightful, and the editors clearly want us to have positive feelings about her, whether she's the possible host Jeff Probst was referring to or not. Maybe that’s because she’s going to go on and win the whole thing, or maybe that’s because she’s the emotional gut punch we’re going to get when she’s betrayed by other players who are worried she’ll win the jury vote if she gets there.