CRAIG SINGLETON2026年11月3日 Cleon PetersonPresident Trump’s decision to hold back a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan makes a certain amount of diplomatic sense.特朗普总统决定暂缓向台湾提供价值140亿美元的武器计划，从外交角度来看确实有其合理之处。After last year’s bruising trade war, Washington and Beijing are trying to preserve a fragile tariff truce while negotiating a broader set of economic agreements. Delaying the arms sale avoids adding another immediate source of friction to an already strained relationship.在经历了去年激烈的贸易战之后，华盛顿和北京正试图维持脆弱的关税休战，同时谈判达成更广泛的经济协议。推迟军售可以避免给已经紧张的双边关系增加另一个直接的摩擦源。But avoiding a confrontation over Taiwan today could set the stage for a far more dangerous one tomorrow.但是，今天避免在台湾问题上发生对抗可能为明天更危险的对抗埋下伏笔。For decades, the United States and China have managed their differences over Taiwan through carefully calibrated language that allowed each side to preserve its own interpretation of what had been agreed.几十年来，美中两国一直通过字斟句酌的措辞来管控在台湾问题上的分歧，这使得双方都能保留自己对已达成共识的解读。President Xi Jinping of China may now apply that same logic to President Trump’s actions, reading the delay as evidence that Mr. Trump is accepting Beijing’s premise that stable U.S.-China relations depend on Washington limiting its support for Taiwan. The longer the deal is held up, the greater the risk that Beijing will see future arms sales as a betrayal, triggering precisely the instability Mr. Trump is trying to avoid.中国国家主席习近平现在可能会将同样的逻辑应用于特朗普总统的行动，将这种推迟解读为特朗普接受了北京的前提——美中关系的稳定取决于华盛顿限制对台湾的支持。这笔军售交易搁置的时间越长，北京就越有可能将未来的军售视为背叛，这恰恰会引发特朗普正在试图避免的那种不稳定。Mr. Trump has delayed the package, which reportedly includes interceptor missiles and other air-defense systems, since early this year. He has called it “a very good negotiating chip” in his dealings with Mr. Xi and said the sale’s fate “depends on China.” For Mr. Trump, this preserves negotiating leverage while leaving open the possibility of the package being approved later.自今年年初以来，特朗普一直推迟这笔军售，据报道这项军售包括拦截导弹和其他防空系统。他将其称为与习近平交涉时“非常好的谈判筹码”，并表示这笔军售的命运“取决于中国”。对特朗普来说，这保留了谈判筹码，同时为该方案日后获得批准留下了可能性。But the history of U.S.-China understandings over Taiwan still matters, and Beijing may assign more lasting meaning to the pause than Mr. Trump intends.但美中在台湾问题上的共识历史仍然很重要，北京可能为这种暂停赋予长期意义，超出特朗普的本意。Mr. Xi has made Taiwan — which China claims as its own territory — central to his vision of relations between the United States and China. At last month’s summit at the White House, he signaled that steadier relations with Beijing depended on the United States distancing itself from Taiwan. He urged Washington to explicitly oppose the island’s formal independence from China, a tougher formulation than the longstanding U.S. position that it simply does not support an independent Taiwan.习近平已将台湾——中国声称是其领土——置于其美中关系愿景的核心。在上个月的白宫峰会上，他发出信号，表明与北京建立更稳定的关系取决于美国与台湾保持距离。他敦促华盛顿明确反对台湾正式从中国独立，这一表述比美国长期以来仅仅不支持台湾独立的立场更为强硬。Ambiguity over Taiwan has helped U.S.-China relations advance. In a joint communiqué in 1972 aimed at ending decades of Cold War hostility, Washington acknowledged Beijing’s claim that there was only one China and that Taiwan was a part of it, but stopped short of endorsing that view. Seven years later, when the United States established formal diplomatic relations with China, it recognized Beijing as China’s sole legal government while leaving the question of Taiwan’s status unresolved and maintaining unofficial ties with the island.在台湾问题上的模糊性有助于美中关系的发展。在1972年双方旨在结束数十年冷战敌对状态的联合公报中，华盛顿称认识到北京关于只有一个中国且台湾是中国一部分的立场，但并未直接赞同这一观点。七年后，当美国与中国正式建交时，它承认北京是中国的唯一合法政府，但同时将台湾地位问题搁置，并与该岛保持非官方关系。On arms sales, however, Washington drew clearer lines.然而，在武器销售方面，华盛顿划定了更清晰的界限。Seeking better relations with Beijing, the administration of President Ronald Reagan issued a communiqué with China in 1982 under which Washington said it intended to gradually reduce arms sales to Taiwan. Mr. Reagan, however, insisted that any reductions depended on Beijing maintaining a peaceful approach toward Taiwan. He also assured Taipei that there was no timetable for ending arms sales and that the United States would not consult Beijing before making future decisions on the issue. Mr. Trump has drawn wno similar lines around the current pause.为了寻求与北京改善关系，里根政府于1982年与中国发表了一份公报，华盛顿在公报中表示打算逐步减少对台军售。然而，里根坚持，任何削减都取决于北京方面是否继续对台湾采取和平方式。他还向台北保证，没有结束对台军售的时间表，且美国今后就该问题作出决定时不会事先征询北京的意见。而特朗普在当前的暂停军售问题上并未划出类似的界限。The past has shown what can happen when Beijing believes an assurance has been broken. In 1995, U.S. officials told Beijing that Taiwan’s president at the time, Lee Teng-hui, would not receive a visa to visit his alma mater, Cornell University. Under pressure from Congress, President Bill Clinton later reversed course and approved the visit.过去的历史已经表明，当北京认为某项保证被打破时会发生什么。1995年，美国官员告诉北京，计划访问母校康奈尔大学的时任台湾总统李登辉将不会获得签证。在国会的压力下，克林顿总统后来改变了决定，批准了这次访问。China recalled its ambassador and launched military exercises around Taiwan. The tension stretched into the next year, when China fired missiles into waters near the island ahead of Taiwan presidential elections, prompting Washington to deploy two aircraft-carrier groups to the region.中国召回了大使，并在台湾周边展开军事演习。紧张局势一直延续到第二年，当时中国在台湾总统选举前向该岛附近水域发射导弹，促使华盛顿向该地区部署了两个航母战斗群。A perceived breach today could carry even greater weight, given how closely Mr. Xi has tied Taiwan to his political legacy. He said in July that bringing Taiwan under Beijing’s control was a “historic mission” and an “unshakable commitment” of the Chinese Communist Party. Mr. Xi has been more blunt in the past, warning that those who “play with fire” over Taiwan will get burned.鉴于习近平将台湾问题与自己政治遗产紧密联系在一起，如今任何被视为违背承诺的行为都可能产生更为重大的影响。他在7月表示，将台湾纳入北京的控制是中国共产党“矢志不渝”的“历史任务”。习近平还曾更加直白地警告，那些在台湾问题上“玩火”的人必将自焚。Future U.S. arms sales are inevitable. If they come after a prolonged pause, Mr. Xi could look as though he misread America’s intentions, raising pressure for him to respond forcefully. Mr. Xi has far more powerful tools at his disposal than Chinese leaders did in the 1990s, including the world’s largest navy by ship count, thousands of military aircraft, a vast missile arsenal and formidable space, electronic and cyberwarfare capabilities.未来美国的军售是不可避免的。如果这些军售是在长期的暂停之后重启，习近平可能会显得像误判了美国的意图，从而面临更大的压力，迫使他采取强硬回应。与20世纪90年代的中国领导人相比，习近平拥有更强大的工具，包括舰艇数量位居世界第一的海军、数千架军用飞机、庞大的导弹武库，以及强大的太空、电子和网络战能力。So far, Beijing has not reciprocated Mr. Trump’s restraint over the arms deal.到目前为止，北京并没有对特朗普在军售问题上的克制做出对等的回应。Since Mr. Trump returned to office, China has continued its military intimidation of Taiwan, conducting air and naval patrols near the island and holding exercises that rehearse attacks. Beijing also expanded Coast Guard patrols to Taiwan’s Pacific Ocean side this year, signaling that it could sever vital supply routes in a blockade.自特朗普重返白宫以来，中国继续对台湾进行军事威吓，在该岛附近进行海空巡逻，并举行模拟攻击的演习。今年，北京还将海警巡逻扩展到了台湾的太平洋一侧，此举表明其可能通过封锁切断台湾的关键补给线。A confrontation over Taiwan could escalate into a sustained effort to choke off the island’s energy imports, initiate cyberattacks on critical infrastructure or create broader economic coercion. Military operations could also disrupt shipping through the Taiwan Strait, which carried more than $2.4 trillion in goods in 2024, endangering semiconductor production and global supply chains.在台湾问题上的对抗可能会升级为一场持续的行动，包括切断该岛的能源进口、对关键基础设施发起网络攻击或制造更广泛的经济胁迫。军事行动还可能扰乱通过台湾海峡的航运——2024年通过该海峡的货物价值超过2.4万亿美元，从而危及半导体生产和全球供应链。Mr. Trump should move quickly to separate Taiwan arms sales from trade talks with China and approve a smaller yet meaningful package to make clear that the United States remains committed to Taiwan’s defense before Beijing comes to see the pause as evidence of a new understanding.特朗普应迅速采取行动，将对台军售与对华贸易谈判分开，并批准一项规模较小但有意义的计划，以明确表明美国仍然致力于台湾的防御，以免北京将这种暂停视为达成新共识的证据。Ambiguity has served the United States and China well so far, but some things should not be left open to interpretation.到目前为止，模糊策略对美中两国都很有效，但有些事情不应留有解读的空间。Craig Singleton是智库保卫民主基金会中国项目的高级主任。此前他曾在美国政府担任国家安全职务十余年，主要负责东亚事务。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。