Sunday Night Market Prep - Nov 1 2026State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETFBATS:SPYheavydiligenceAll right, we’ve got a new month, an election, and plenty of opportunities for the market to keep us on our toes. In Notable November, I discussed the potential for a recovery following the election. That’s still where I’m leaning as we head into this week: green first, yellow second, red last. I wouldn’t rule out plenty of sideways chop and indecision before we get a convincing move. Futures opened roughly 0.2% higher this evening, so we’re starting with a little optimism. Let’s see whether that survives the overnight session and carries into Monday. I’ve left the post-FOMC decline visible because it helps illustrate the battlefield. We had strength going into the decision, then gave it back quickly. Friday’s bounce was encouraging, but we still have several levels overhead that buyers need to reclaim. The media is focused on technology earnings and the enormous amounts being spent on AI. Investors want to see that spending translate into returns. Meanwhile, the Fed held rates steady, with two members favoring a hike. Those concerns didn’t disappear just because we bounced. Traders seem divided, too. The public discussions I reviewed had plenty of people looking for a recovery and plenty expecting the next bounce to get sold. I can see the argument on both sides. That’s why we map out alternatives before the week starts. For green, I want to see buyers defend support and start taking back $760–$762.50. Above that, we’ve got $765–$767, followed by the daily levels around $769–$771. If buyers can turn those levels into support, the move toward $772–$773 shown on the chart becomes more reasonable. Notice that my green path still allows an early pullback. A bullish week doesn’t require a bullish Monday morning. $754 is the first area I’m watching underneath us, with $750–$752 more important if selling resumes. Lose that lower area and keep failing to reclaim it, and I need to reassess green. Yellow gives us more back-and-forth, largely between $754 and $762. With the election and several important reports ahead, traders may be reluctant to commit. Repeated rejection overhead while support holds would keep this scenario in play. Hold above $762.50, and green gains traction. Start accepting prices below $754, and we’re back to testing the lower support. Red is last on my list, but it’s still on the chart for a reason. If the rebound fails and we lose $750–$749.50, the next areas I’d watch are around $747, then $743–$745. A recovery through $754 and eventually $760–$762.50 would weaken that bearish case. HDTL v1.3 is on the chart to help keep the timing in view. Here are the main checkpoints this week, all Eastern Time: Monday: ISM Manufacturing, 10:00 a.m. Tuesday: JOLTS, 10:00 a.m., then election night. Wednesday: ADP, 8:15 a.m.; ISM Services, 10:00 a.m. Thursday: Jobless claims and productivity/costs, 8:30 a.m. Friday: Jobs report, 8:30 a.m.; Michigan sentiment, 10:00 a.m. We’ve also got Palantir Monday after the close and AMD Tuesday after the close, both worth watching given the concerns surrounding AI. I’m leaning toward a recovery, but I won’t be chasing the first move just because it agrees with my outlook. Let each play develop. Watch how price responds at the levels, give yourself room to be wrong, and remember that sitting out the chop is a perfectly good decision.