How Close Is Close Enough? Naked POC Return Odds by DistanceBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDIndicatrA naked POC tells you WHERE price may come back to. It does not tell you WHEN. A fair question came up under the first post of this series: instead of quoting a base rate, what actually happens before price returns to one of these levels? So I tested it. THE TEST - Markets: Bitcoin (Bitstamp, 1h, Jun 2024 to Nov 2026, 865 days), S&P 500 futures (ES, 1h, 736 sessions) and gold futures (GC, 1h, 734 sessions). Futures for ES and GC because they carry real exchange volume; spot gold and forex only have tick volume, which can put the POC somewhere else entirely. - Each day: POC = price row with the most traded volume (30 rows, same logic as the indicator on the chart). - For every day a POC stayed naked, I measured the distance from that day's close to the POC in ADR(14) units, then checked: was it touched within the next 2 sessions? - I also tagged the waiting day: expansion day (range above 1.2 ADR), quiet day (range below 0.8 ADR), and whether the close moved toward or away from the level. RESULTS (touched within 2 sessions) Distance at the close | BTC | ES | GC Under 0.5 ADR | 62% | 63% | 63% 0.5 to 1 ADR | 39% | 39% | 39% 1 to 2 ADR | 13% | 16% | 11% Over 2 ADR | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% Sample sizes: under 0.5 ADR n = 172 / 120 / 123, 0.5 to 1 ADR n = 386 / 276 / 303, 1 to 2 ADR n = 834 / 563 / 663. WHAT STANDS OUT 1. Distance does almost all the work. Three very different markets, nearly identical numbers. Inside half a day's range, a naked POC is closer to a coin flip in your favour. Beyond two day ranges it is practically dead for the next two sessions. 2. Expansion toward the level matters, but only at medium distance. At 1 to 2 ADR, a wide-range day that closes toward the POC lifts the odds to 19% / 20% / 17%. Inside 1 ADR it adds nothing useful. 3. Quiet days do NOT load the spring. At 1 to 2 ADR, a narrow-range day leaves the odds at 10% / 11% / 12%, slightly below the base. I expected compression or "accumulation" before a return. The data did not show it. 4. Close direction alone is noise. Inside 1 ADR, closing toward vs. away from the POC: 47% vs 44% on BTC, 49% vs 41% on ES, 45% vs 46% on GC. Mixed, not a rule. THE CHART Bitcoin 1h with the Naked POC Profile running. The coloured zones are centred on Monday's close (76,674) and measured with ADR(14) of about 1,980: - Green, under 0.5 ADR: the Sep 16 POC at 75,843 (-0.42 ADR) sits here. - Yellow, 0.5 to 1 ADR: the Nov 2 POC at 77,987 (+0.66 ADR). - Orange, 1 to 2 ADR: the Oct 29 POC at 79,873 (+1.62 ADR). - Beyond 2 ADR: 84,575 and 85,613 above, 71,791 below. On this test, those are not two-day magnets. The zones end after two sessions on purpose. That is the window the odds refer to. You can check later how these levels played out. HOW TO USE IT - Measure first. A naked POC on the chart is not automatically a target. Convert the gap into ADR units before you treat it as one. - Under 0.5 ADR: a realistic short-term objective or a reason to wait before fading a move toward it. - 1 to 2 ADR: a background level. Wait for a strong, wide day in its direction before giving it weight. - Over 2 ADR: a map reference for later, not a trade target for this week. LIMITS Two sessions is a short window; longer windows raise every number. Hourly data, 30 rows per day, one definition of "touch" (price trades through the POC). No costs, no entries, no exits. This describes how often price revisits these levels, not a trading system. Past behaviour can change. If you track naked POCs differently (weekly POCs, session POCs, other distance measures), I would be interested in how your numbers compare.