Israel’s Arab parties are kingmakers, yet no one wants them. Here’s why

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The results of the Israeli general elections, with no clear winner, once again shine the light on a democracy functioning in a deeply divided society. Every section of the Israeli society voted for their representatives, which resulted in a fractured mandate.While the coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud managed to secure the maximum number of seats (53), it is not enough to form the government. The Gadi Eizenkot-led (Yashar) Opposition could manage 48 seats, despite thousands of its supporters flying in to vote for change. The surprise was reserved for the Arab parties, who received an unprecedented number of votes and seats (19) in the 120-member Knesset.To form a government, the arithmetic looks simple: either of the two major Jewish political blocs could take the support of the Arab parties — such as the United Arab List (Ra’am) or the Hadash-Ta’al alliance — to assemble a majority. Yet, neither side appears willing to do so.Understanding why both the right and centre-left exhibit such structural aversion requires examining how Israel balances its democratic institutions with its identity as a Jewish state. To analyse this issue, historian Alan Dowty has examined the precise nature of the democracy that Israel has maintained over time.Democracy with a differenceApplying Dutch-American political scientist Arend Lijphart’s theory of consociational democracy, Dowty ranks Israel among consensus-based regimes on several metrics while acknowledging its majoritarian features. Consociationalism suggests that a stable democracy in deeply divided societies relies on power-sharing, grand coalitions, mutual vetoes, and proportional representation.However, in the Israeli context, these consociational features have historically been restricted to intra-Jewish politics—accommodating ideological divides among secular, religious, Ashkenazi, and Sephardic factions.While Israeli Arabs enjoy the formal rights of citizenship, including voting and access to the political system, on most occasions, they have been placed outside the sphere of traditional Jewish politics. Despite progress in several fields, it took 40 years for the Arabs to establish their first independent parliamentary party – the Arab Democratic Party (Mada, 1988).Story continues below this adSummarising this institutional exclusion, political scientist Ian Lustick notes that Israel lacks a traditional Arab negotiating partner in the elite bargaining processes characteristic of consociational systems. Lustick argues that, despite Arabs constituting approximately 20 per cent of the population, Jewish and Arab political elites do not engage in systematic ethnic bargaining or proportional resource allocation, as is typical of classic consensus democracies.Also in Explained | As Israel’s exit polls point to tight finish, can Arab parties become kingmakers?There is another way of looking at Israeli politics beyond majoritarianism and consociationalism. Israeli sociologist Sammy Smooha suggests that Israel belongs to a category of “ethnic democracies” that combine a dominant ethnic character with democratic rights for all. According to this theory, the way Israel defines its public space and national interests only reflects the wishes of a Jewish majority while undermining the Arab minority’s participation in national affairs.Moreover, legislation such as the 2018 Basic Law further formalises this condition by legally prioritising Jewish self-determination. The law specifies that the right to exercise national self-determination in the State of Israel is only for the Jewish people. Arab politicians, civil rights organisations, and non-Jewish communities (including the Druze) have criticised the law for omitting explicit guarantees of civic equality. Opponents argued that it legally codified structural hierarchy, aligning directly with Smooha’s model of ethnic democracy.In July 2021, the Supreme Court of Israel upheld the law in a 10–1 ruling, determining that while the Basic Law anchors Israel’s national identity as a Jewish state, it does not nullify individual human rights guaranteed under other Basic Laws.Insider-outsiderStory continues below this adWhile Netanyahu has framed the Arab bloc as a threat within, Opposition leaders too, during poll campaigning, had said they would stay away from those parties.A primary factor behind this is the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Zionist parties accuse Israeli Arab citizens of extraterritorial loyalty. For most Jewish leaders, the Israeli Arabs occupy a complex position as an “enemy-affiliated minority”—a population linked by geography, history, and kinship to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, while maintaining political citizenship within Israel, notes Smooha.Amid the ongoing attacks on Gaza, most Israeli parties see reliance on Arab parties as a direct national security risk. In contrast, the Arab parties reject the Zionist definition of Israel as an explicitly Jewish state. Instead, they advocate their full rights and representation in Israel while supporting a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders, a position supported by many Jewish compatriots. When military operations escalate, Arab parliamentarians face intense pressure from their constituencies to denounce IDF actions.More in Explained | Israel elections: Why only coalitions have ruled so far, could this time be differentAfter the counting of votes, a chorus has been growing that the Opposition bloc should join hands with the Arab parties to unseat Netanyahu. However, partnering directly with factions like Hadash-Ta’al risks alienating right-leaning coalition partners (such as Yisrael Beiteinu or Yamina successors), whose votes are equally vital to secure a 61-seat parliamentary majority.Story continues below this adThere is recent precedent to this. In 2021, the 36th Israeli government – led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid – was formed with the support of the Ra’am party led by Mansour Abbas, who had secured just four seats. Abbas and his party members prioritised civil rights, housing, crime prevention, and economic development in Arab towns over broader debates on political sovereignty. However, the government fell in 2022 over ideological issues, including the illegal settlements in the Occupied West Bank.Impact beyond bordersThe 19 seats the Arab parties have won show that Arab citizens have embraced the Israeli democracy and want to extend their political participation beyond voting rights.If the Zionist parties still keep them at arm’s length, it can impact Israel’s efforts to normalise relations with neighbouring Arab and Muslim states through the Donald Trump-backed Abraham Accords.