XAUUSD — 3944 Rejected. Will 3891 Hold? GoldOANDA:XAUUSDEthan_TraderPro Gold is losing momentum again after failing to sustain its latest recovery. Following the rebound from 3,870 towards 3,970, XAUUSD encountered renewed selling pressure and is now trading around 3,913. The market has returned below the important resistance at 3,944, suggesting that sellers remain in control. However, price is approaching another critical liquidity area around 3,891, where a short-term recovery could develop. My primary bias remains bearish below 3,944, with 3,891 and 3,870 as the main downside levels to watch. MARKET STRUCTURE — SELLERS REMAIN IN CONTROL Gold continues to form lower highs and lower lows after losing the important structural support around 4,020–4,025. The recent recovery towards 3,970 failed to establish a convincing bullish reversal. Instead, sellers defended higher prices and pushed gold back below the 3,944 resistance. From an ICT perspective, the market remains in a bearish structure, with sell-side liquidity beneath recent lows acting as a potential price target. The latest bearish displacement reinforces this outlook. Until buyers produce a confirmed bullish Market Structure Shift (MSS), recovery attempts remain corrective. 3944 — THE IMMEDIATE RESISTANCE The first important resistance remains 3,944.156. This zone previously supported the latest consolidation before sellers regained control. The recent Volume Profile also highlights notable trading activity around 3,945–3,960. If gold recovers towards 3,944 and produces bearish rejection, another decline could follow. However, sustained acceptance above 3,944 would weaken the immediate bearish pressure and could open a recovery towards 3,960–3,970. Above that, 4,025 remains the next major structural resistance. 3891 — THE NEXT LIQUIDITY DECISION The first important downside support sits at 3,891.357. This level marks a previous reaction area where buyers may attempt to defend the market. If gold approaches 3,891 and sweeps nearby sell-side liquidity, a corrective recovery could develop. However, I would need to see strong bullish displacement and a confirmed MSS before considering that recovery reliable. If sellers break beneath 3,891 and maintain control, the next downside target becomes 3,870.938. A sustained breakdown below 3,870 would suggest that the bearish trend is extending further. VOLUME PROFILE — WHERE THE MARKET MAY REACT Volume Profile highlights important trading activity around 3,945–3,960 and the higher 4,020–4,025 region. Both areas now sit above current price, creating potential resistance during recovery attempts. The recent rejection below 3,944 suggests that buyers have not yet established acceptance at higher levels. However, concentrated trading volume alone does not confirm institutional selling. What matters is how price reacts when these levels are retested. MY TRADING SCENARIOS Scenario One — Bearish Continuation (Priority) Gold remains below 3,944 and continues forming lower highs. A confirmed breakdown below 3,891 could extend the decline towards 3,870. Scenario Two — Liquidity Sweep and Recovery Gold tests 3,891 or potentially the previous low around 3,870. If buyers produce a liquidity sweep, strong bullish reclaim and confirmed MSS, a corrective recovery towards 3,944 becomes possible. Scenario Three — Stronger Bullish Recovery Buyers reclaim 3,944 and establish higher lows. This could support a recovery towards 3,960–3,970, while 4,025 remains the next major resistance. ETHAN'S KEY TRADING ZONES Current Price: 3,912.910 4,059.513 — Higher Structural Resistance 4,025.426 — Major Recovery Resistance 3,944.156 — Immediate Resistance 3,891.357 — First Downside Support / Liquidity 3,870.938 — Major Previous Low Bullish Confirmation: Liquidity sweep, strong reclaim and confirmed bullish MSS. Bearish Confirmation: Rejection below 3,944 or sustained breakdown beneath 3,891. Short-Term Bearish Invalidation: Sustained reclaim above 3,944 with a successful retest. ETHAN'S FINAL VIEW Gold remains bearish after failing to maintain its recovery above 3,944. The broader market structure continues to favour sellers, while the Volume Profile highlights important resistance above current price. My preferred scenario is another test of 3,891, where buyers may attempt a short-term recovery. If this support fails, 3,870 becomes the next important downside objective. Four levels define the next move. 4,025 — Major structural resistance. 3,944 — Immediate recovery barrier. 3,891 — First liquidity decision. 3,870 — Next bearish target. The trend still favours sellers, but the reaction around lower liquidity will be important. Will gold defend 3,891 and recover towards 3,944, or will sellers break the previous low at 3,870?