EURCHF: Two-Week Floor Broke. Sell the Retest Towards 0.9100?EUR/CHFOANDA:EURCHFAlgoVaultsEURCHF just lost the floor it had been sitting on for two weeks, and the franc has had its strongest month in years. October was brutal for this pair. It dropped from the 0.9480s at the end of September to the 0.9200s, roughly 3% in a month, which is a big move for EURCHF. For the last two weeks it found a floor around 0.9180-0.9195. It held the week of 19 October, held again last week, and held again on Friday. Yesterday it finally gave way and dropped to 0.9156. So the question is: is the old floor now the ceiling? As always, I start top-down: monthly and weekly for the bigger picture, daily and 4H for the zone, then the 1H and 30m for the entry. Monthly: October was a big red candle that wiped out the whole July to September rally in one go. More than half of the move from the March low at 0.8981 up to the September high has already been given back. Monthly MACD is still below the zero line and has started curling back down. The bigger trend never really turned up. Weekly: Five red weeks out of the last six. Price is back below the weekly 20 and 50 MAs, and the weekly MACD crossed down in mid-October. Every bounce in that run has been sold, which is not what you see when buyers are in control. Daily: Lower highs and lower lows all the way down. Price is under the daily 20, 50 and 200 MAs. Daily RSI is around 30, so it is stretched. That is exactly why I'm not interested in selling down here at 0.9160. I'd rather let it bounce back into the area it just broke. The area I'm interested in is 0.9180-0.9200. That's the two-week floor that broke yesterday, and it lines up with the late October lows. 4H: Price is under the 4H 20 and 50 MAs, both sitting around 0.9200-0.9220. A pullback into 0.9180-0.9200 runs straight into them. My sell zone is 0.9180-0.9200. 1H and 30m: Trigger is a bearish rejection on the 1H or 30m inside 0.9180-0.9200. A long upper wick or a bearish engulfing candle. Swiss inflation for October comes out today at 8:30am Zurich time, and the US midterm elections are today too. I won't take a fill around the Swiss number. If it spikes into the zone, I'll wait for the candle to close and see who wins. What I'm Watching Next A rejection inside 0.9180-0.9200 is first. Yesterday's low at 0.9156 breaks and the May area around 0.9135-0.9150 is the only thing in the way. That opens 0.9100. That's the late May and early June lows around 0.9095. 0.9100 breaks and 0.9000 is on the cards. That's the round number with the March low at 0.8981 just under it, where this whole rally started. How I'm Looking To Trade It Aggressive: sell a 1H or 30m rejection inside 0.9180-0.9200, entry around 0.9190. Stop above 0.9235, over Friday's and Monday's highs. Take something off the table at 0.9100 and trail the rest towards 0.9000. Conservative: wait for a 4H close back below 0.9150, then sell the first 1H pullback with the stop above that pullback high. Same targets. From 0.9190 that's about 45 pips of risk for 90 to the first target and 190 to the second. Roughly 1:2 and 1:4. What changes my mind: A daily close back above 0.9235. That puts EURCHF back above last week's highs and its 4H averages, and the breakdown turns into a fake-out. If that happens the short is off the table. Does this mean I think the euro is finished? Not really. Daily RSI is near oversold and a hot Swiss CPI or a calm election night could take the pressure off the franc. That's why I want to sell the bounce, not chase the low. There is the possibility that I am wrong :) What are you seeing on EURCHF: is the old floor now the ceiling, or is this the spot buyers finally step back in? Not financial advice, just how I'm looking at it.