With Democrats confident of regaining the House of Representatives and hopeful of capturing the Senate in the midterm elections, speculation is growing that the Trump era is drawing to a close. Not so fast, caution the realists. The emerging political picture in the US is more complex — the election is one important piece of a long-term reorientation of US policies at home and abroad.A sweeping Democratic victory will demonstrate American democratic resilience and the capacity of its institutions to resist strongman rule. It would restore some of the traditional balance between the executive and legislature and internal distribution of power within his own Republican party. It would also encourage democratic forces everywhere at a time when obituaries are being written for democracy around the world.AdvertisementAlso Read | C Raja Mohan: In Iran war, US midterm elections are the new frontFive broad likely consequences from the midterm elections deserve attention.First, a weaker Trump at home could become more active abroad. Losing Congress would not deprive him of his executive privilege over the conduct of foreign policy. Politically, presidents frustrated by legislative gridlock have often turned to diplomacy. Trump can pursue international initiatives until his last day in office in January 2029.George H W Bush signed the START II nuclear arms control treaty with Russia’s Boris Yeltsin in January 1993, days before handing over power to Bill Clinton. India’s historic civil nuclear agreement cleared its final American hurdles in the closing months of George W Bush’s presidency, despite a Democratic-controlled Congress. In the last lap of presidency, Barack Obama pursued an opening to Cuba and concluded the Iran nuclear agreement despite Republican opposition in Congress.AdvertisementThe difference lies in bipartisan support. It helped sustain the agreements with Russia and India. Its absence allowed Trump to abandon Obama’s Iran agreement. A hostile Congress need not prevent consequential diplomacy, but agreements resting largely on presidential authority are easier for successors to dismantle.Trump’s ambition for a grand bargain with Russia over Ukraine and energy cooperation faces considerable resistance in Congress and the American security establishment. His challenge is to mobilise support in both parties in favour of an accommodation with Moscow. On Iran too there is considerable sentiment across the political spectrum for an immediate end to the current war. The question is about the terms of war termination. Congress can restrict funding and authorisations, but overcoming a presidential veto requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers. Such a consensus appears unlikely.Second, Democratic control of Congress would bring investigations into alleged wrongdoing, conflicts of interest and the activities of Trump’s family. These could hurt his standing and consume the administration’s attention without necessarily disabling it.The Supreme Court has granted presidents substantial criminal immunity for official acts. The sitting presidents are also protected from federal prosecution while in office. Neither prevents congressional scrutiny or provides blanket protection for private conduct and family members. Washington could become even more divided as Trump retains substantial executive authority.Third, American arguments about immigration reveal competing currents in American politics. Trump’s emphasis on sovereign borders answered the powerful public sentiment against illegal immigration. But the opposition to the administration’s enforcement methods is real and growing. Similar tensions surround legal immigration, especially the H-1B visas, of particular interest to India. American capital wants access to foreign talent, while opposition to labour imports has grown on both left and right. The next two years are unlikely to resolve these contradictions.Fourth, the biggest political changes could unfold within the two parties. Socialists and progressives have gained influence within the Democratic Party, challenging its traditional leadership on economic and foreign policy questions. Capturing Congress could intensify rather than settle these internal arguments in the Party. On the Middle East, progressives challenge the party’s traditional support for Israel.Change is inevitable within the Republican Party too. Sections of the populist right have cooled towards Trump. If he is seen as an electoral liability, mainstream Republicans could become more willing to challenge him. The approaching contest over the Republican presidential nomination in 2028 will also reopen questions about the party’s ideological direction and the future of Trumpism.Fifth, the campaign’s focus on affordability and rising living costs brings into view America’s unfinished argument over economic globalisation. Trump promises industrial renewal through import tariffs, ease of living, and higher economic growth. Tariffs can raise costs for consumers and businesses, while the anticipated benefits of industrial reshoring and economic growth take time to materialise.Democrats attack this contradiction but remain divided over how much protectionism to retain. Defeating Trump’s candidates would not restore the old free-trade consensus. Both parties must reconcile household affordability with industrial jobs, economic security and competition with China.For the rest of the world, arguments over American trade policy should not obscure the underlying strength of the US economy. Its massive GDP at nearly $33 trillion and the latest quarterly growth rate of 3.4 per cent will mean American dominance of the global economy is here to stay. Continuing technological leadership, deep capital markets and capacity for innovation continue to provide the US strategic advantages over its potential peers. Political turbulence in Washington does not automatically translate into widely presumed, or hoped for, American decline.The dramatic change in US policies in Trump’s second term, have encouraged simplistic assumptions about the country and a tendency to confuse the president with America as a whole. India’s stakes in the US relationship are likely to grow even amidst its internal turbulence. For a more informed debate and effective policymaking towards Washington, Delhi and its political class need deeper engagement with the diverse and competing political, economic and social forces shaping the US.The writer is a contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express. He is Professor and Director at the Motwani Jadeja Institute of American Studies, Jindal Global University, Delhi