USDCHF falls on firmer Swiss CPI, but buyers lean against the 100 day MA

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The USDCHF moved lower during the European session after Swiss inflation came in stronger than expected. October CPI rose 0.2% versus an unchanged reading expected, while annual inflation increased to 1.5% from 1.0%, above the 1.3% forecast. The firmer data supported the CHF and gave USDCHF sellers another push to the downside.However, the sellers ran into a key technical target. The falling price reached the rising 100 day moving average near 0.81563, just above a swing area between 0.81383 and 0.81513. Buyers leaned against that support and stalled the fall.Sellers had their shot. Buyers are pushing back.The move lower followed failures near the 200 hour moving average on Friday and again yesterday. Those failures gave sellers the go-ahead to push lower, with today’s inflation report providing an additional fundamental shove to the downside.But even with the news on their side, sellers could not sustain momentum through the next major support target. The bounce from the 100 day moving average shows buyers were willing to step in where risk could be defined and limited.That keeps the buyers in the game. They still have work to do to take more control.The 0.82162–0.82250 swing area is the next barometerThe rebound has brought the price back toward the familiar swing area between 0.82162 and 0.82250. That zone has acted as both support and resistance on multiple occasions going back to September. The 38.2% retracement of the August-to-October rally also cuts through the area at 0.82243.I would expect some slowing of the bounce here.Above that zone, the falling 100 hour moving average at 0.82335 and 200 hour moving average at 0.82447 add another layer of resistance. Buyers need to get and stay above those moving averages to take more of the downside pressure off the pair. If successful, the next swing area comes in between 0.82636 and 0.82740.What would give sellers more control?If resistance holds, sellers can look back toward 0.81905–0.81826, followed by the 50% midpoint at 0.81717.Below that, the 100 day moving average near 0.81563 remains a key downside barometer. Getting below that moving average and through the 0.81383–0.81513 swing area would open the door toward the 61.8% retracement at 0.81191.For now, buyers have defended support. Sellers have resistance above to lean against.Education: News provides the push. Technical levels define the risk.Stronger Swiss inflation gave traders a reason to sell USDCHF. The 100 day moving average gave buyers a place to lean against with close risk.Holding support can trigger a bounce, but reversing the broader bearish bias requires buyers to reclaim resistance. Watch how the price behaves at the swing area and hourly moving averages. Those tests will help determine whether this is a corrective rebound or the start of a stronger recovery. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.