USD/CAD: Breakout Retest at 1.3900 — Bulls Still Have the EdgeUSD/CADOANDA:USDCADKingCephas2026USD/CAD begins the week around 1.3897, sitting directly around the 50% Fibonacci area after Friday's strong upside move. Price rallied from the 1.3845 region, broke through 1.3880 and 1.3900, and printed a high near 1.3912 before pulling back. 📈 Technical Structure The immediate structure remains constructive, but price is now testing whether the breakout can hold. Bullish scenario: 1.3890–1.3900 holds as support Break above 1.3920 Targets: 1.3940 → 1.3960 Bearish scenario: Failure to hold 1.3890 Return below 1.3875 Targets: 1.3860 → 1.3855 Deeper support: 1.3820 The stochastic is elevated and beginning to roll over, so chasing the current move offers poor positioning. A confirmed retest is preferable. 🌎 Fundamental Drivers The dollar enters the week supported by the more hawkish interpretation of Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole message, while markets reassess the probability of a September Fed move. However, the key risk is U.S. labour-market data, particularly Friday's NFP. A weak employment report could reverse some of the recent hawkish repricing. For CAD, the unresolved U.S.–Canada trade dispute remains a significant headwind, while oil remains another important variable. 🎯 Trading Advantage™ View Bias: Moderately Bullish USD/CAD The level I'm watching most closely is: 1.3890–1.3900 If this former resistance becomes support, the breakout has a good chance of extending. If price falls back below the zone, the breakout thesis weakens considerably. Don't chase the candle. Wait for price to show whether 1.3900 is now support or resistance. #USD CAD #USDCAD #Forex #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Fibonacci #FederalReserve #JacksonHole #NFP #CanadianDollar #TradingAdvantage