BTCUSD DAILY ANALYSIS — Sat, Aug 29 2026Bitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDhazrulamin📰 BTCUSD MARKET BRIEFING • Price: $77,576 (24h: -3.27%) | Range: $76,888 – $81,479 — sharp rejection from 30D high • Fear & Greed: 73 (Greed), up from 71 — sentiment still hot despite the dump • Funding: +0.0100% (neutral) | OI: 106,303 BTC — no extreme leverage either way • News: Fed's Warsh delivered a hawkish Jackson Hole speech, downplaying softer inflation prints — knocked BTC -3% from $81.5k. Offset: month still +23.5%, CryptoQuant CEO calls bear market "over" (2023-style recovery), Peter Brandt publicly long, CLARITY Act chatter as a regulatory tailwind. Analysts flag $80.8k–86k as the overhead supply cap. 📊 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK • Trend: Higher-TF uptrend intact (price > SMA10 $76,988 > SMA20 $70,381), but yesterday printed a bearish rejection candle: open $80,250, wick to $81,479, close $77,576 — a ~$4.6k slam on hawkish headlines. • RSI(14): 80.7 — OVERBOUGHT. After a +23.5% month, this candle is a warning: don't chase longs here. • 4H structure shows breakdown: lower highs 81,479 → 80,000 → 79,840, last candle closed weak at $77,576. • Support: $76,900 (SMA10 + $76,888 swing low confluence) → $76,670 → $75,546 • Resistance: $78,400–78,600 (breakdown zone) → $79,800–80,000 → $80,850–81,479 (30D high) 🎯 TRADE SETUPS 1️⃣ LONG — Support retest at SMA10 confluence (primary) • Buy Limit 77,000 | SL 75,850 | TP1 79,600, TP2 80,800 • R:R 1:2.3 / 1:3.3 | Size: 0.10 BTC (~$115 risk at TP1-scale; scale to 1% account risk) • Rationale: Uptrend + SMA10/$76,888 swing-low confluence is the highest-probability buy zone after a flush. 2️⃣ SHORT — Retest of 4H breakdown zone (counter-trend) • Sell Limit 79,700 | SL 80,950 (above 80,849 swing) | TP 77,000 • R:R 1:2.2 | Size: 0.05 BTC (half — counter-trend in an uptrend) • Rationale: If Warsh hawkishness keeps weighing, the 79,600–80,000 shelf is the natural sell-side reaction zone. 3️⃣ LONG — Breakout continuation (momentum) • Buy Stop 81,600 (above 30D high) | SL 79,900 | TP 84,500 • R:R 1:1.8 | Size: 0.08 BTC • Rationale: Clean break of $81,479 invalidates the rejection and opens the path toward the $86k supply cap. ⚠️ RISK NOTE RSI 80.7 + Greed 73 + a $4.6k rejection candle = elevated pullback/flush risk — favor limit orders over market entries. Weekend liquidity is thin, so stops inside the $76,900 cluster may see wicks; watch for follow-through on Warsh's hawkish stance and any Jackson Hole weekend commentary before adding size.