GRAM/USDT | H2 | TESTING THE LOWER BOUNDARY OF THE RANGEGRAM(prev.Toncoin) / USDTMEXC:GRAMUSDTTerminator_Crypto_Analyst🎯 TP1: $1.3777 (+1.08%) │ TP2: $1.3886 (+1.88%) 🛑 SL: $1.3393 (-1.74%) │ R/R: 1 : 1.08 ⚠️ SL is placed beyond the nearest candle wicks to reduce the risk of accidental stop-outs FUNDAMENTAL BACKGROUND In the absence of a fresh project catalyst, GRAM moves in line with the broader market amid sustained risk appetite (the fear and greed index is in the Greed zone). The launch of staking on Binance US and Telegram's application for the .gram domain remain supporting factors but do not provide immediate momentum. No significant macro releases for the asset are expected in the coming days — the publication of the ISM Manufacturing PMI (01.09.2026) is a standard event that rarely acts as an independent driver for altcoins. Thus, the market remains in a technical mode. TECHNICAL PICTURE The price has settled below the Ichimoku cloud (Senkou A: $1.37, Senkou B: $1.40), indicating a sustained bearish bias on the medium-term horizon. The Tenkan ($1.36) and Kijun ($1.38) lines have formed a "death cross," reinforcing selling pressure. However, the current quote of $1.3630 is in the lower 20% of the last 100 candles' range ($1.3430–$1.5600), which historically attracts buyers near the support zone. The VWMP at $1.36 acts as the nearest dynamic resistance, and a break above $1.38 (Kijun) will open the path to the cloud. PROBABILITY MODEL The market is in a sideways trend with a 47% probability, confirmed by a narrow ATR(14) of 0.0147 — volatility is below average. The model records a 28% probability of bullish continuation versus 26% for a bearish reversal, giving buyers a slight edge at the lower boundary of the range. The model confidence coefficient is 50%: this is not a confident signal, but rather a probabilistic bet on a rebound from the oversold zone. DIRECTION 🟢 BUY — the price is at the lower boundary of a multi-day range, where a rebound historically forms.