Bitcoin: Cyclical bear market ended on July 1?Bitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDSwissquoteCould Bitcoin be in the process of recording the shortest cyclical bear market in its recent history? While historical seasonality traditionally makes August a difficult month for BTC, the reality of the market is currently very different. After touching $62,000, Bitcoin experienced a particularly rapid rebound toward $80,000. A key question is therefore emerging: did the low recorded on July 1 at $57,750 mark the definitive end of the bear market? 1) A shorter-than-average bear market If the July 1 low were indeed to prove to be the definitive bottom of the current bear cycle, the 2026 bear market would have a historical peculiarity. Between the cycle high and this low, the bearish phase would have lasted approximately 268 days. This is significantly shorter than the three previous major bear markets: approximately 406 days in 2014, 363 days in 2018 and 376 days in 2022. The duration of Bitcoin bear markets therefore appears to be gradually contracting from one cycle to the next. But the most striking element probably concerns the magnitude of the correction. With a maximum drawdown of approximately 54%, the 2026 bear market would also be the least severe of the major recent bear markets. By comparison, maximum drawdowns reached approximately 85% in 2014, 83% in 2018 and 76% in 2022. The current bear market could therefore be both the shortest and the shallowest in this recent history. This evolution can be explained by the gradual maturation of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Spot ETFs, the growing presence of institutional investors and increasing market depth have probably helped limit the severity of capitulation phases. However, caution is warranted before drawing a definitive conclusion too quickly. A new low cannot be completely ruled out, and the coming weeks will be particularly important. September, as well as the vote scheduled for September 15 on the Clarity Act, could in particular represent important catalysts for the market. 2) Two technical levels to watch around $70,000 To determine whether the July low really marks the end of the bear market, two technical indicators currently offer a particularly interesting reading: the 200-day simple moving average and the weekly Ichimoku Kijun. The 200-day SMA has long been a major reference point for distinguishing between Bitcoin’s major bullish and bearish phases. However, a simple temporary breakout is not enough: what really matters is the ability of the price to reclaim this average and, above all, to establish a sustained consolidation phase above it. Bitcoin has just reclaimed this average strongly over the past week. The weekly Kijun provides a second confirmation. Even more interestingly, both indicators are currently located around $70,000. This is therefore the major technical level to watch over the coming weeks. If Bitcoin manages to hold this zone sustainably through October, the hypothesis that the bear market ended at the beginning of July will gain considerably more credibility. But holding a support level is not enough to definitively confirm a cycle change. Bitcoin must also succeed in breaking through the major resistance levels. 3) Weekly Ichimoku Kumo and 50-week moving average to confirm the end of the bear market The next step is around $82,000. This level corresponds in particular to the 50-week moving average and represents a particularly important technical resistance. The scenario I favor is therefore one of a consolidation phase between $70,000 and $83,000 over the coming weeks. If this range is confirmed and Bitcoin subsequently manages to break out to the upside, the market could enter a new phase of bullish acceleration. The chart below shows the weekly candlesticks of Bitcoin, including the Ichimoku system. In this scenario, the true bull run would probably not develop immediately. The most interesting period could instead begin from November 2026, followed by a continuation of the bullish move throughout 2027. In summary, the technical signal is now clearly more constructive than it was at the beginning of the summer. The July 1 low at $57,750 may well have marked the end of the bear market. But to turn this hypothesis into a genuine cycle confirmation, Bitcoin must now defend $70,000 and then sustainably break through $82,000–$83,000 as well as the weekly Ichimoku Kumo. It is this combination of preserved support and broken resistance that will determine whether the 2026 bear market is definitively a thing of the past. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. 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