PAUL SONNE, DAVID PIERSON2026年9月1日周一，中国领导人习近平（中）与吉尔吉斯斯坦总统萨迪尔·扎帕罗夫（左）在吉尔吉斯斯坦比什凯克举行的欢迎仪式上。 Pavel Mikheyev/ReutersAs the leaders of China, Russia, India, Iran and other nations converged on Central Asia for a two-day summit beginning on Monday, one thing was clear from the outset. Even as President Trump tries to bend the world to revolve around Washington, Xi Jinping of China has his own powerful orbit.中国、俄罗斯、印度、伊朗及其他国家领导人周一齐聚中亚，参加为期两天的峰会。有一件事从一开始就显而易见：尽管特朗普总统试图让世界围绕华盛顿运转，中国领导人习近平依然拥有自己强大的势力轨道。The Chinese leader’s arrival in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, for a meeting of the 10-nation political and security grouping known as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization underscored Mr. Xi’s broad ability to sustain Washington’s foes, both in peacetime and in war.中国领导人抵达吉尔吉斯斯坦首都比什凯克，参加由10个国家组成的政治与安全集团上海合作组织的会议，这凸显了习近平在和平时期与战争时期都能广泛维系华盛顿对手的能力。The talks come against the backdrop of two wars that have pushed the globe into a period of intense geopolitical instability, suppressing economic growth and driving up inflation. Those challenges were at the heart of discussions taking place simultaneously on the other side of the globe in Asheville, N.C., at a gathering of finance ministers from the Group of 20 countries.此次会谈是在两场战争的背景下举行的，这两场战争将全球推入了一个地缘政治剧烈动荡的时期，不仅抑制了经济增长，还推高了通胀。在地球另一端的北卡罗来纳州阿什维尔市，这些挑战是20国集团财长会议正在讨论的核心议题。The meeting in Bishkek, in contrast, was a showcase for the incredible leverage that the wars have given Mr. Xi.相比之下，比什凯克的会议充分展示了战争赋予习近平的惊人筹码。No nation has been more critical to Russia and Iran in sustaining their economies and war efforts than China. Mr. Xi has undermined efforts by the United States and its allies to pressure Russia and Iran economically, employing Beijing’s vast geopolitical and economic clout as the world’s largest importer of crude oil and exporter of consumer goods.在维持俄罗斯和伊朗的经济运转及战争消耗方面，没有哪个国家比中国更为关键。利用北京作为全球最大原油进口国和消费品出口国所拥有的巨大地缘政治和经济影响力，习近平削弱了美国及其盟友对俄罗斯和伊朗施加经济压力的努力。Mr. Xi’s biggest rival, the United States, has been distracted by the war in Iran and has pulled some of its military forces from Asia and Europe. Last month, the Chinese leader was able to brush off threats by President Trump that the United States would inflict an “economic D-Day” on countries that provided Tehran with a lifeline. Mr. Trump once made similar threats about purchasers of Russian oil, but did not follow through with any actions against Beijing.习近平最大的竞争对手美国已被伊朗的战争分散了精力，并从亚洲和欧洲撤走了一部分军事力量。上个月，特朗普总统威胁称，美国将对那些为德黑兰提供生命线的国家发动“经济诺曼底登陆”，但这并未对中国领导人产生影响。特朗普也曾对俄罗斯石油的买家发出过类似威胁，但并未对北京采取任何实质行动。“After the past year, Trump has a fundamental credibility problem with Xi,” said Julian Gewirtz, who served as the senior director for China and Taiwan Affairs at the National Security Council during the Biden administration. “Both his threats and his assurances appear to Beijing, as another world leader put it, to be written in pencil.”曾在拜登政府时期担任国家安全委员会中国与台湾事务高级主任的朱利安·格维尔茨表示：“过去一年里，特朗普在习近平面前面临着根本性的信誉问题。正如另一位世界领导人所言，无论他的威胁还是承诺，在北京看来都像是用铅笔写的。”In Bishkek, Mr. Xi’s priority is to burnish his image as the leader of non-Western nations and to push back against what he calls U.S. hegemony. Despite that, he will most likely be cautious about how much support he publicly offers Iran.在比什凯克，习近平的首要任务是提升自己作为非西方国家领导人的形象，并反击他口中的美国霸权。尽管如此，在公开向伊朗提供多少支持这一问题上，他很可能会保持谨慎。The Chinese leader cannot afford to provoke Mr. Trump less than a month before he is scheduled to travel to Washington to attempt to extend a fragile economic truce between the United States and China. Before heading to the United States, Mr. Xi will travel to Egypt and India for state visits.不到一个月之后，中国领导人将前往华盛顿，试图延长中美之间脆弱的经济休战，因此他承受不起激怒特朗普的代价。在前往美国之前，习近平还将对埃及和印度进行国事访问。The series of trips leading up to his summit with Mr. Trump is aimed at casting Mr. Xi as a powerful statesman at a time when Mr. Trump has frayed U.S. relations globally, analysts said.分析人士指出，与特朗普举行峰会之前的一系列出访旨在将习近平塑造为一位强有力的政治家，而特朗普此时正令美国与各国的关系变得紧张。“Xi appears to see an opportunity to show that China has friends and options around the world at precisely the moment Washington is alienating many of its allies,” Mr. Gewirtz said.格维尔茨表示：“在华盛顿疏远其许多盟友的当下，习近平似乎看到了机会，借此向外界展示中国在世界各地都拥有朋友和选择。”This week’s summit in Bishkek is a reminder of the limits of U.S.-led economic warfare. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran, both critically reliant on China, arrived in the Kyrgyz capital on Monday as they work to defy Western efforts to isolate them and persevere with their own wartime goals.本周在比什凯克举行的峰会提醒人们，美国主导的经济战存在局限性。高度依赖中国的俄罗斯总统普京与伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安于周一抵达吉尔吉斯斯坦首都，他们正努力对抗西方试图孤立他们的举措，并坚持推进各自的战时目标。中国官方媒体发布的一张照片显示，习近平周一在比什凯克与俄罗斯总统普京会面。Beijing has largely obliged, extending economic lifelines to both Moscow and Tehran and leveraging its economic clout to the frustration of Washington.北京在很大程度上满足了这些需求，向莫斯科和德黑兰抛出了经济救生索，利用自身的经济影响力，令华盛顿感到受挫。While Mr. Xi’s power is on the rise, there are limits to it. Though the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is partly a security grouping, Beijing has been unwilling to deploy its military to defend members such as Iran, which joined the organization in 2023, or Russia, instead formally calling for dialogue and an end to the conflicts.尽管习近平的实力不断增强，但也存在局限性。上海合作组织在某种程度上是一个安全集团，但北京一直不愿部署军队来保卫成员国，比如伊朗（2023年加入该组织）或俄罗斯，而是从官方层面呼吁对话、结束冲突。Mr. Xi does not want to be entangled in foreign wars, analysts have said, viewing them as one of the primary reasons the United States has seen its power wane over the decades. But Beijing is willing to increase trade and provide technologies that can be used on the battlefield.分析人士表示，习近平不愿卷入外国战争，他认为这是几十年来美国实力衰退的主要原因之一。但北京愿意增加贸易，并提供可用于战场的各种技术。The Chinese leader met with Mr. Putin for bilateral talks in Bishkek on Monday, praising what he called ever-brighter prospects for relations between China and Russia.周一，这位中国领导人在比什凯克与普京举行了双边会谈，并赞扬中俄关系前景“更加光明”。Mr. Putin, in turn, highlighted the success of visa-free travel between the two nations and said he was ready to make the arrangement permanent. The Russian leader noted that the first scheduled voyage of a Chinese container ship passed through what is known as the Northern Sea Route in mid-August, presaging broader cooperation in the Arctic.普京则强调了两国间免签旅行的成功，并表示他已准备好将这一安排永久化。这位俄罗斯领导人指出，一艘中国集装箱船的首次定期航行已于8月中旬通过了所谓的“北方海路”，这预示着双方将在北极地区开展更广泛的合作。Whether Mr. Xi meets with the Iranian leader separately from the summit will indicate how much the Chinese leader is willing to push the line ahead of the scheduled visit to the United States.习近平是否会在峰会之外单独会晤伊朗领导人将表明，在定于前往美国访问之前，这位中国领导人愿意在多大程度上试探底线。Though it once counted only Russia, China and four Central Asian nations as members, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization expanded in 2017 to include India and Pakistan and more recently added Belarus and Iran. In the process, it has become a growing counterpoint to Western-led political and security groupings.尽管上海合作组织的成员国最初只有俄罗斯、中国和四个中亚国家，但该组织在2017年进行了扩员，纳入了印度和巴基斯坦，最近又吸纳了白俄罗斯和伊朗。在此过程中，该组织日益成为西方主导的政治和安全集团的对手。Some of the leaders gathering for the summit in Bishkek have helped Mr. Putin continue his war against Ukraine, which is now in its fifth year, and aided Iran in its attempt to weather a monthslong onslaught by the United States.参加比什凯克峰会的部分领导人曾协助普京继续对乌克兰的战争——这场战争现已进入第五年，同时也协助伊朗抵御美国长达数月的猛烈攻势。8月，俄罗斯对乌克兰扎波罗热发动空袭后的景象。出席上海合作组织峰会的许多领导人都协助了俄罗斯继续进行对乌克兰的战争，这场战争如今已进入第五年。Not long after Mr. Putin launched the all-out invasion in 2022, Iran supplied Russia with Shahed drones and helped Moscow establish domestic production facilities for the weapons.就在普京于2022年发动全面入侵后不久，伊朗向俄罗斯提供了“沙赫德”无人机，并帮助莫斯科在国内建立了这些武器的生产设施。Central Asian nations have become critical import and payment routes for Russia, as Moscow works its way around Western restrictions. Iran has turned to Central Asia as an alternative import route amid a U.S. blockade.随着莫斯科设法绕过西方的种种限制，中亚国家已成为俄罗斯关键的进口与支付通道。在美国的封锁下，伊朗也转向中亚，将其作为一条替代的进口路线。India, Kazakhstan and Belarus are among the countries that have stepped in to ship gasoline to Russia in recent weeks as Ukrainian long-range strikes have decimated Russian oil refineries.由于乌克兰的远程打击摧毁了俄罗斯的多家炼油厂，印度、哈萨克斯坦和白俄罗斯等国在最近几周介入，向俄罗斯输送汽油。India emerged as one of the biggest purchasers of Russian oil in the aftermath of Mr. Putin’s invasion. Though its imports dropped following pressure from Mr. Trump and new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants, the U.S. war against Iran roiled oil markets and pushed Indian suppliers to turn once again to imports from Russia. China is the biggest importer of Russian and Iranian crude.在普京发动入侵之后，印度成为了俄罗斯石油的最大买家之一。尽管在特朗普施压以及美国对俄罗斯石油巨头实施新制裁后，印度的进口量有所下降，但美国针对伊朗的战争扰乱了石油市场，迫使印度供应商再次转向从俄罗斯进口。中国则是俄罗斯和伊朗原油的最大进口国。Mr. Xi’s relationship with Mr. Putin is increasingly one-sided in Beijing’s favor. Western sanctions related to Russia’s war with Ukraine have enabled China to stockpile discounted Russian oil, cushioning the blow of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.习近平与普京的关系正日益向有利于北京的一方倾斜。与俄乌战争相关的西方制裁使得中国能够囤积折扣的俄罗斯石油，从而缓冲了霍尔木兹海峡被封锁带来的冲击。Even the site of this week’s summit highlights China’s growing hand over Russia. Once a Soviet republic, Kyrgyzstan had been firmly within Moscow’s sphere of influence. But China’s influence in the Central Asian nation has grown, and the five nations of Central Asia have banded closer together in response to Russia’s war against Ukraine.甚至本周峰会的举办地也凸显了中国对俄罗斯日益增强的掌控力。吉尔吉斯斯坦曾是苏联的加盟共和国，一直稳稳地处于莫斯科的势力范围之内。但如今中国在这个中亚国家的影响力已然扩大，中亚五国为应对俄乌战争也更加紧密地团结在一起。In opening remarks before a meeting with President Sadyr Japarov of Kyrgyzstan on Monday, Mr. Xi said relations between Beijing and Bishkek had “made a leap forward” and that cooperation was “flourishing across all areas.”在周一与吉尔吉斯斯坦总统萨德尔·扎帕罗夫会晤前的开场致辞中，习近平表示，北京与比什凯克之间的关系已经“实现跨越式发展”，各领域合作正在“全面开花”。On Monday evening, the leaders attended a lavish opening ceremony for the World Nomad Games, held in a newly built stadium in Bishkek and hosted by Mr. Japarov. Dancers and singers in traditional costume performed, as riders on horseback traversed a stage area ringed by bursts of fire.周一晚间，各国领导人出席了在比什凯克一座新建体育场举行的世界游牧民族运动会盛大开幕式，开幕式由扎帕罗夫主持。身着传统服饰的舞者和歌手登台献艺，骑手们骑着马穿过被阵阵火焰环绕的舞台区域。When Mr. Xi arrives in the United States, Mr. Trump is likely to seek the Chinese leader’s cooperation on both Iran and North Korea, but it is not clear that China will oblige, Mr. Gewirtz said.格维尔茨表示，当习近平抵达美国时，特朗普可能会在伊朗和朝鲜问题上寻求这位中国领导人的合作，但目前尚不清楚中国是否会予以配合。“Trump has painted himself into a corner,” he said. “The administration is struggling to square two seemingly irreconcilable goals: tightening pressure on Iran and maintaining its truce with China.”“特朗普把自己逼入了一个死角，”他说道。“美国政府正艰难地试图平衡两个看似不可调和的目标：加大对伊朗的施压，同时维持与中国的休战状态。”Paul Sonne是时报莫斯科分社社长，领导对俄罗斯、高加索和中亚地区的报道。他常驻柏林。David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。