TNX vs. DXY: The Great Macro Divergence (More risk, No reward)CBOE 10 YR TREASURY NOTE YIELDTVC:TNXpatoFor years, the 10-Year Treasury Yield (TNX) and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) moved hand-in-hand. When growth and rate expectations ticked up, the Dollar followed yields higher. Since April, however, that positive correlation has completely severed: TNX (Green/Red Candlesticks): Pressing against channel resistance around 4.72% within its multi-year corrective structure. DXY (Blue Line): Collapsing toward the critical 99.70 psychological support zone. Why Did the Decoupling Happen? This divergence signals an "unwelcome yield rise"—where sovereign yields spike due to risk discount rather than economic vigor: Fiscal Supply & Term Premium Overhang: Massive U.S. Treasury issuance required to fund swelling deficits has flooded the market. Without sufficient foreign reserve demand, yields had to rise simply to absorb debt supply, offering zero positive momentum for the Dollar. Tariff Inflation vs. Growth Drag: Trade frictions reignited cost-push inflation fears (locking yields high) while dampening appetite for USD-denominated trade assets. Front-End Easing Expectations: FX markets price the short end of the yield curve (Fed rate cut expectations), while long-term bonds remain locked down by sticky inflation and supply indigestion. Key Levels & Potential Catalysts DXY Support at 99.70: A breakdown opens a path toward 96.00. For DXY to reclaim the 102.00+ zone, markets need either a formal Fed rate hike re-pricing or a sharp energy terms-of-trade shock (Crude > $90/bbl). TNX Resistance at 4.80%–4.85%: A clean breakout pushes yields toward the 5.00% mark, further testing equity valuations and global debt sustainability. What’s your outlook: Does the Dollar stage a mean-reversion catch-up rally, or will long-term yields finally roll over to reunite with the DXY? #TNX #DXY #Macro #Bonds #USDOLLAR #ElliottWave #TradingView