Bitcoin Holds the Trend, but the Macro Backdrop Got HarderBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDEvelyn_ReedBitcoin is still holding the short-term rising structure around 78.5k. That matters because the market has already tested this trendline several times without losing the sequence of higher lows. But the backdrop is not as clean as it was during the first leg of the rally. Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended August 28 with about $202 million in net outflows, snapping a long inflow streak that had brought roughly $3 billion into the products. The broader week was still positive, so I would not call that a reversal in institutional demand yet. But it is the first sign that buyers are becoming more selective near 80k. At the same time, the Fed has become a bigger problem again. Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole comments pushed the probability of a September rate hike above 60%, and higher oil prices are adding another inflation concern. That is not an ideal backdrop for an asset that just rallied hard on easier liquidity expectations. There is still real demand underneath the market, though. Strategy disclosed today that it bought another 4,603 BTC, its first Bitcoin purchase since June. That does not determine the market, but it shows that large corporate demand has not disappeared during the pullback. What the chart shows The one-hour structure still looks constructive. Price is holding above rising support, while the 80.8–81.5k area remains the obvious ceiling. A move into that zone would not be surprising. The important part is whether buyers can finally stay there. Primary scenario The constructive view remains valid while the rising trendline keeps producing higher lows. If BTC reaches 80.8–81.5k and starts holding above it, the breakout case becomes much stronger. Alternative scenario The risk is that weaker ETF flows and a more hawkish Fed start mattering more. If the trendline breaks and price cannot reclaim it, the current recovery begins to look like a failed attempt to push through 80k rather than a new leg higher. What comes next The next major catalyst is the U.S. jobs report. Markets currently expect only modest job growth. A weak number could quickly reduce rate-hike expectations again; a stronger print would make the Fed problem harder to ignore. Bitcoin still has buyers underneath it, but getting through 81k now requires more than momentum.