FLOCK/USDT | H1 | SUPPORT TEST AMID UNLOCK RISKSFLock.io / USDTMEXC:FLOCKUSDTTerminator_Crypto_Analyst🎯 TP1: $0.03666 (+13.10%) │ TP2: $0.032498 (+17.83%) 🛑 SL: $0.045961 (-16.21%) │ R/R: 1 : 1.1 ⚠️ SL is placed beyond the nearest candle wicks to reduce the risk of accidental stop-out FUNDAMENTAL BACKGROUND FLOCK has its own catalyst — the integration with Chainlink CCIP from August 12 expands the token's cross-chain access, which is fundamentally positive for utility. However, this factor is overshadowed by pressure from a major unlock scheduled before August 31, which increases the risk of selling by early holders. The overall crypto market does not support altcoins: Bitcoin's dominance index remains high, and the Fear and Greed Index is in the "greed" zone (around 60), which supports risk appetite but does not create an independent altcoin impulse. No significant macro releases for the asset are expected in the coming days, so FLOCK moves on technicals and project-specific factors. TECHNICAL PICTURE ADX at 47.2 indicates a strong downtrend with sellers in control. The price has settled below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands ($0.04), and the upper band ($0.04) coincides with VWAP, forming a resistance zone. The lower band ($0.03) acts as the nearest support, but ATR (0.002686) suggests that at current volatility, it is still about 3.5 full moves away. CCI at 16.9 is in the neutral-bearish zone, providing no overbought signal. PROBABILITY MODEL Market regime — bearish. Probability of continued decline — 46%, versus 31% for a bullish scenario and 23% for a sideways move. Model confidence — 75%. The unlock event creates additional pressure that the technicals are already pricing in. A break below $0.0385 will open the path to testing the $0.036–0.035 zone with high probability. DIRECTION 🔴 SELL — ADX confirms the strength of the current downtrend, and CCI shows no signs of reversal.