CELR Weekly Update: Downtrend breakout and continuationCeler Network / TetherUSBINANCE:CELRUSDTvidheazThis marks the 6th week following the developments on The Celer Network Token (CELR). Right now the token’s price finds itself stuck between steady supply distribution and high short conviction around the High Probability Target Area (HPTA) and a lack of decisiveness from the buy side grinding momentum to a halt even though the weekly candle ended higher. The moderate nature of the sell side pressure makes upside continuation likely once buyers regain conviction and volume picks up. However, with BTC sitting at a key junction below 80k, the September monthly open, and the important mid-September event window ahead, momentum resumption must be quick with a focus on the 0.00310 - 0.00330 range as the target. The Weekly Recap: The token spent last week trapped within the 0.00225 – 0.00255 range, with steady distribution on the Spot market amid muted buy side volumes. The futures market mirrored this pattern with fresh shorts dominating fresh longs. The token sustained price above its D200-SMA (~0.00230), closing the week above it indicating that the supply capping the price isn’t substantial and what’s limiting further upside is dampened demand. The Road Ahead: With Open Interest climbing in the Futures markets and sell side supply remaining thin, the current expectation is for a Short Squeeze towards the end of the week pushing price towards the MPTA (0.00310 – 0.00330). The token may experience a pullback to the 0.00210-0.00220 range before as the monthly candle for September opens. This would constitute an ideal entry for Longs looking to capture the upside move towards the MPTA. Externalities and considerations: ● BTC remains below the key 80-86K resistance area, so a pullback towards 70-72k remains a distinct possibility for the Monthly Open; some caution is guaranteed from this alone. The supply cluster from 79K to 86K remains too thick to pierce from Futures volume alone with the W50-SMA capping any momentum. ● ETH also remains stalled below its W50-SMA with more even distribution ongoing. □ Rotation into Alts has failed to materialise with liquidity concentrating towards continuation positioning on Majors. ○ With tensions rising between Iran and the U.S., the War is getting close to a crossroads where the U.S. decides to escalate into full economic and kinetic warfare with secondary economic sanctions and boots on the ground or back down and deescalate towards the mid-terms as the U.S. cannot sustain the current attrition game without significantly destroying its long term response capacity while Iran is probably fully prepared to sustain the stalemate well into 2027. Until Oil breaks $130 the outlook remains the same as in previous updates. ○ The focus has fully shifted towards mid-September with the PPI and CPI releases around the 10th being key to shaping any price action for BTC and crypto as a whole. ○ The FED meeting on the 15th and the subsequent BOJ meeting on the 18th could destabilize and halt the momentum of markets as a whole, suggesting defensive/sidelines positioning towards these dates is key. Targets: Medium Probability Target Area (MPTA): 0.00310 – 0.00330 (~W50-SMA) Low Probability Target Area (LPTA): 0.00400 – 0.00420 Very Low Probability Target Area (VLPTA): 0.00520 – 0.00630 Organic Ceiling (Order Book Supply Cluster): 0.00750 – 0.00800 The assestment for the tokens path remains skewed towards the upside with a degree of caution. Remember to check and reference other available resources and analysis before taking any decision. If you have any input or comment, please feel free to contribute down below.