郭莉莉, PEI-LIN WU2026年9月1日周日，救援人员沿着通往中国吉隆港的道路搜寻失踪人员。上周三，一股由冰块、巨石和水组成的、宛如海啸般的巨浪席卷了该港口区域。 Cnsphoto, via ReutersBefore last week’s deluge in a Himalayan valley killed more than 900 people along the border with Nepal, Chinese officials had spent months repairing the damage from an earlier landslide in the same area and trying to learn from it.上周喜马拉雅山谷的洪水导致中国与尼泊尔边境900多人丧生之前，中国官员已经花了数月时间修复该地区早些时候因山体滑坡造成的破坏，并试图从中吸取教训。The trouble was that the next disaster was unlike anything they had prepared for.麻烦在于，下一场灾难与他们所准备应对的任何情况都截然不同。Fourteen months earlier, a lake on a nearby glacier had burst, causing a landslide that swept away container trucks, houses, and a bridge at the Gyirong Port border crossing used by pilgrims, tourists and traders.14个月前，附近冰川上的一个湖泊溃决，引发了山体滑坡，冲走了朝圣者、游客和商人通行的吉隆口岸过境点的集装箱卡车、房屋和一座桥梁。Afterward, the authorities closed the port for almost half a year, ordered emergency plans be updated to include the threat of glacial lake outbursts and set up a 24-hour sentry for sudden changes in water level. Construction began on a flood prevention system that included a new flood wall, reinforced dikes and channels to divert floodwaters, according to government tenders.此后，当局将该口岸关闭了近半年，下令更新应急预案，以纳入冰湖溃决的威胁，并设立了24小时哨所来监测水位的突变。根据政府招标信息，一个防洪系统的建设也随之开始，其中包括新建防洪墙、加固堤坝以及用于分流洪水的渠道。Gyirong County added “glacial lake outburst defense” to its training of local officials and held a special session with experts on the topic in May. Villagers near the border simulated a landslide, alerting residents through loudspeakers, WeChat messages and by knocking on doors. In July, the county’s top official inspected towns for their flood preparedness and ordered his staff to “detect early, report early and resolve early” any signs of glacial floods.吉隆县在对地方官员的培训中增加了“冰湖溃决防御”的内容，并在5月与专家举行了关于该主题的特别会议。边境附近的村民模拟了山体滑坡，通过扩音器、微信消息和挨家挨户敲门来警告居民。7月，吉隆县最高官员视察了各镇的防洪准备情况，并命令其工作人员对冰川洪水的任何迹象做到“早发现、早报告、早处置”。2025年7月，尼泊尔与中国边境吉隆港发生山体滑坡后的景象。这场灾难是由冰川湖决堤引发的。None of that preparation was enough. On Wednesday, a different hazard sent a tsunami-like wave of ice, boulders and water through the Gyirong Port complex, demolishing 27 buildings, before it surged into Nepal. Officials estimated that there were only six or seven minutes between the avalanche and when the border was hit.但这些准备工作都远远不够。上周三，一种完全不同的灾害带来了由冰块、巨石和水组成的巨浪，如同海啸，席卷了吉隆口岸建筑群，摧毁了27座建筑物，然后涌入尼泊尔。官员估计，从雪崩发生到冲击边境仅间隔了六七分钟。。On Monday, Chinese rescuers were still searching the border area and clearing roads. The landslide killed at least 903 people in Nepal and 16 in Tibet. In Nepal, 4,247 people were missing as of Monday, including 592 foreigners, the country’s disaster agency said. In Gyirong County in Tibet, 546 people remained missing, Chinese state media reported.周一，中国救援人员仍在边境地区搜救并清理道路。山体滑坡导致尼泊尔至少903人死亡，西藏16人死亡。尼泊尔灾害应对机构表示，截至周一，尼泊尔已有4247人失踪，其中包括592名外国人。据中国官方媒体报道，西藏吉隆县仍有546人失踪。“It’s spooky that a different, strange, climate-related event happened in the same river just a year later,” said Austin Lord, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center who studies disaster and climate risk in the Himalayan region. “I think this event really is yet another wake-up call.”“仅仅一年后，在同一条河流中发生了一场不同的、奇怪的、与气候相关的事件，这令人毛骨悚然，”史汀生中心研究喜马拉雅地区灾害和气候风险的高级研究员奥斯汀·洛德说。“我认为这一事件确实是又一次警钟。”Both disasters sent torrents of water, rock and debris hurtling downstream. But Wednesday’s came from another phenomenon that the monitoring systems were not built to anticipate — ice collapsing from a glacier, according to geologists, that could have been caused by thawing permafrost and weakened bedrock.这两场灾难都导致汹涌的水流、岩石和碎片向下游倾泻而下。但地质学家表示，上周三的灾难源于另一种监测系统无法预测的现象——冰川冰体崩塌，这可能是由永久冻土融化和基岩变弱引起的。Chinese scientists are working on an early warning system for ice avalanches in a different part of Tibet, the southeastern Sedongpu Valley. In Gyirong, though, monitoring the area’s more than 200 glacial lakes for potential breaches has been the priority.中国科学家正在西藏另一个地区——东南部的色东普沟——致力于建立冰崩预警系统。然而在吉隆，监测该地区200多个冰川湖是否可能发生溃坝一直是工作的重中之重。Why Was the Crossing Built There?为什么过境点建在那里？The fact that the same area was hit twice by catastrophic glacier-linked flash floods in 14 months also raises questions about why settlements and major infrastructure were built downstream in a narrow valley gorge.同一地区在14个月内两次遭到与冰川有关的灾难性山洪袭击，这一事实也引发了质疑：为什么定居点和主要基础设施要建在狭窄峡谷的下游？For the last decade, the Gyirong Port has been the main link between China and Nepal, accounting for almost a third of China’s trade with Nepal, much of it electric vehicles going to Nepal, as well as more than 180,000 people traveling between the two countries.过去十年来，吉隆口岸一直是中国和尼泊尔之间的主要纽带，占中国对尼泊尔贸易的近三分之一（其中大部分是运往尼泊尔的电动汽车），并且两国之间有超过18万人次在此通行。The five-story complex was in one of the most vulnerable places possible for a border crossing. It perched on a narrow strip of land in a steep gorge where two rivers meet. Both rivers, fed by glaciers, descend about 10,000 feet before they come together at Gyirong Port.这座五层楼的建筑群位于边境口岸最易受冲击的地点之一。它坐落在两条河流交汇的陡峭峡谷中一条狭窄地带。这两条河流由冰川融水汇成，河水下落约3000米后在吉隆口岸汇合。中国官方媒体发布的一张照片显示，2023年，一名乘客正在吉隆口岸的过境点。过去十年间，该口岸一直是中国与尼泊尔之间的主要通道。“That flat ground is exactly where the bridge, customs yard, dry port and truck park sit so they take the direct hit every time,” said Saswata Sanyal, a specialist in disaster risk reduction at the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development, or ICIMOD, an intergovernmental group that has studied the border region. “People were swept away from the customs yard in 2025 and the same sites were struck again this year.”“那片平地正是桥梁、海关货场、内陆港和卡车停车场的所在地，因此它们每次都受到直接冲击，”研究该边境地区的政府间组织国际综合山区发展中心的减灾专家萨斯瓦塔·桑亚尔说。“2025年，人们从海关货场被冲走，今年同样的地点再次遭到冲击。”But experts say there are few alternatives in this steep mountain region where disasters continue to strike. The Gyirong border crossing only became a major trade route over the last decade after another crossing further east, between Zhangmu in China and Kodari in Nepal, was damaged in the 2015 Nepal earthquake.但专家表示，在这个灾害持续发生的陡峭山区，可选的替代路线寥寥无几。吉隆口岸之所以在过去10年间成为主要贸易通道，是因为位于更东侧、连接中国樟木与尼泊尔科达里的另一处口岸在2015年尼泊尔地震中受损。According to a travel advisory on Sunday issued by the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, some travelers have been directed to use the Zhangmu crossing. That area was also hit by a glacier lake flood in 2016 and is downstream from another large glacial lake that needs to be monitored, according to Dr. Lord of the Stimson Center.根据美国驻华大使馆周日发布的旅行建议，一些旅行者已被引导使用樟木口岸。史汀生中心的洛德指出，樟木口岸在2016年也曾遭受冰川湖洪水袭击，并且它位于另一个需要监测的大型冰川湖的下游。“It’s like Whac-a-Mole. You have risks emerging in one place and you shift to another location,” he said.“这就像打地鼠游戏。一个地方出现风险，你就转移到另一个地方，”他说。A study in 2024 by Chinese researchers in Chengdu had concluded that of the transportation corridors between Nepal and China, the border crossing at Gyirong was at the highest risk of glacial lake outburst floods.2024年，成都的中国研究人员进行的一项研究得出结论：在尼泊尔和中国之间的交通走廊中，吉隆口岸面临的冰湖溃决洪水风险最高。On Monday, the state-run China National Radio ran an article titled “Why is the Gyirong Port built in a deep river valley?” in an apparent effort to head off criticism of the border’s location.周一，官方的中国中央人民广播电台发表了一篇题为《吉隆口岸为何建在深山河谷中？》的文章，此举显然是为了平息对该口岸位置的批评。“History showed it was relatively safe, especially for a border crossing like this, which is why such a route was built,” Tian Bingwei, associate professor at the Institute for Disaster Management and Reconstruction of Sichuan University, told the radio station.四川大学灾后重建与管理学院副教授田兵伟告诉该电台：“历史就证明它是比较安全的，尤其是这种通关口岸，所以才有了这样一条路。”Disasters More Difficult to Predict灾害变得更难预测The region has always experienced landslides, avalanches and floods but rising temperatures have made those events more destructive, complex, and difficult to predict.这一地区一直存在山体滑坡、雪崩和洪水等灾害，但气温升高使得这些事件变得更具破坏性、更加复杂且更难以预测。The landslide last week as well as the one in 2025 exhibited what experts call a “cascade of hazards,” where several disasters happen one after another, compounding and interacting with each other.上周的山体滑坡以及2025年的山体滑坡都表现出专家所谓的“级联灾害”，即多种灾害接连发生，相互叠加、相互作用。Liu Weiming, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, told China National Radio that Wednesday’s disaster was caused by new factors such as the increase in global warming that causes glaciers to melt more rapidly.中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所研究员刘维明告诉中央人民广播电台，周三的灾难是由新因素引起的，例如导致冰川加速融化的全球变暖加剧。“In this case, the ice avalanche directly transformed into a debris flow without any pause, moving at an exceptionally high speed. This is extremely rare in our country,” he told the radio station.“这次是冰崩后直接转化成泥石流，中间没有停歇，速度非常快，在我们国内也是非常罕见的，”他告诉该电台。The disaster shows that traditional monitoring that focuses on threats in isolation like a flood or an avalanche are not enough. “These mountains are very different from anywhere else. We need to understand the mountain risks and hazards much more closely going forward,” said Dr. Sanyal of ICIMOD.这场灾难表明，孤立地关注洪水或雪崩等单一威胁的传统监测已经不够了。“这些山脉与任何其他地方都截然不同。未来我们需要更密切地了解山区的风险和灾害，”国际综合山区发展中心的桑亚尔说。“We cannot just think traditionally as we think of a single hazard,” said Dr. Sanyal. “There were sensors for flood, flash flood risk, right? But there were not sensors for this kind of ice avalanche.”“我们不能只局限于传统思维，把它当作单一的灾害来考虑，”桑亚尔说。“有检测洪水、山洪风险的传感器，对吧？但没有针对这种冰崩的传感器。”郭莉莉(Lily Kuo)是《纽约时报》报道中国记者，常驻台北。Pei-Lin Wu是《纽约时报》记者/研究员，报道台湾和中国新闻。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site