AUDJPY: 88% of Retail Traders Are ShortAUD/JPYOANDA:AUDJPYEdgeTradingJourneyAUDJPY continues to show a strong bullish structure after the sharp recovery from the 110.00 area. Buyers have progressively regained control of the market, pushing price back toward a major Daily resistance zone between 114.35 and 114.80. AUDJPY is trading directly inside resistance, close to the previous highs and the buy-side liquidity resting above them. For this reason, I believe the market could first sweep this liquidity before starting a corrective movement. The first area I will monitor is the Daily imbalance around 114.00–114.15, where a reaction could occur. Nevertheless, the most interesting area for a potential long setup remains between 113.00 and 113.50. This zone contains multiple Daily Fair Value Gaps and an inverse FVG, creating a strong technical confluence. My preferred scenario is therefore a temporary rejection from the current resistance, followed by a retracement toward the Daily demand area. If price reaches this zone and provides valid bullish confirmation on the lower timeframes, I will consider looking for a continuation toward 114.80 and potentially above 115.00. Retail sentiment adds another interesting element to this outlook. Approximately 88% of retail traders are currently short AUDJPY, while only 12% are positioned long. From a contrarian perspective, this extreme positioning could support a further bullish expansion or a short squeeze, especially if price breaks decisively above the previous highs. However, the fundamental positioning is not completely aligned with the bullish technical scenario. The latest COT data show that non-commercial traders remain net short on both AUD and JPY, without providing a clear directional advantage for the pair. In addition, September seasonality tends to be negative for the Australian dollar and positive for the Japanese yen. This creates a bearish seasonal bias for AUDJPY and represents the main risk to my bullish outlook. Overall, the broader technical structure remains bullish, but I do not want to chase price inside resistance. I prefer to remain patient and wait for a pullback into the Daily imbalances, where the risk-to-reward profile would be significantly more attractive. A decisive Daily close below 112.68 would weaken the bullish structure, while a break below 110.81 would invalidate my broader bullish scenario.