EUR/USD Attempts to Recover, but Bearish Bias RemainsEUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDNouzTraderEUR/USD EURUSD is struggling to capitalize on the overnight technical rebound from the 1.1575–1.1580 support zone and has turned lower again during Tuesday's Asian session. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ✅ Transatlantic Monetary Divergence: Certainty of ECB Rate Hike vs. Surging Fed Speculation Interest rate dynamics between Frankfurt and Washington present two opposing fundamental drivers: - Certainty of September ECB Rate Hike (+25 bps): Preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data is projected to edge higher in August due to soaring upstream energy costs, cementing expectations for a 25-basis-point (bps) ECB rate hike at the September meeting. - US Dollar Rebound Following Kevin Warsh's Hawkish Speech: The Greenback's resurgence was triggered by hawkish rhetoric in Kevin Warsh's debut speech at Jackson Hole, which increased the probability of a Fed rate hike at the September 15–16 meeting (to 65%). - North American Session Catalysts Tonight: Markets are anticipating the release of US ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data tonight, ahead of the key Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ✅ 4-Hour Chart Technical Analysis Technically, on the 4-hour (H4) chart, EUR/USD is consolidating: - Significance of 1.1575–1.1580: This base acts as a crucial line of defense. As long as the spot price holds above this level, a short-term recovery toward 1.1650 remains possible. - "Fade the Rally" Scenario: Given the fundamental bias favoring USD buyers ahead of the NFP, any temporary recovery (rebound) approaching 1.1640–1.1650 is highly likely to meet selling pressure (be "faded on rallies"). A clean break below 1.1575 will pave the way for an accelerated decline towards 1.1500.