VIX Unfazed After Warsh — 14.77 Is the Line for US500VOLATILITY S&P 500TVC:VIXLIVERMORE333US500 sold off after Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. VIX barely moved. That matters. When equities fall and volatility does not confirm, the selling looks more like event digestion than an acceleration of fear. Hike odds for September rose, but VIX failed to hold above 15. The market is not pricing this as an immediate panic event. VIX range: 14.18–14.77 Support: 14.18 Resistance: 14.77 My rule is a 4H body close only. Hold below 14.77: no confirmation of further US500 downside. Range remains the base case. 4H body through 14.77: look toward 15.70–16.30. That would be the first real fear confirmation. 4H body through 14.18: another VIX leg down, usually short-term supportive for equities — but snapbacks from these lows are common. At 14-handle VIX, this is not a reason to chase equity shorts or longs. The risk is the compression itself. Low-14s is already cheap. Jackson Hole often hits with a lag, and the next catalyst (jobs / inflation) can wake VIX up even if this range holds first. #VIX