Bitcoin Rose 40%+ in Two Months. What Its Chart Says Now

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Bitcoin Rose 40%+ in Two Months. What Its Chart Says NowBitcoin / US DollarCOINBASE:BTCUSDmoomooBitcoin BTCUSD has had quite a run of late vs. the U.S. dollar, rising some 40% between its June 30 low and its Aug. 27 high before pulling back some. Is this parabolic run rally over? Let's see what Bitcoin's chart says. Both Bitcoin and front-month gold futures GC1! have been hot in recent weeks. (Gold futures gained 17.9% between their June 30 low and Aug. 25 high.) However, both have moved sideways or lower in recent days. Bitcoin's Technical Analysis Now let's check out Bitcoin's trading level against the U.S. dollar using pricing data from Coinbase COIN . Here's Bitcoin's chart going back some 10 months and running through Tuesday morning (Sept. 1): Readers will see two concurrent technical patterns for Bitcoin that appear on the surface to both be bullish. First, there's a falling-wedge pattern of bullish reversal, marked in tan at the chart's left and center. This created Bitcoin's August breakout, which validated the pattern. Second, Bitcoin's chart is now showing a giant double-bottom pattern, marked with green shading at the chart's center and right. Like the falling wedge, this is also a pattern of bullish reversal. The problem here is that the double-bottom pattern's pivot (central apex) is at just about $81,700 -- close to where BTC appears to have hit resistance in late August. (Bitcoin peaked at $81,442.02 last Thursday on Coinbase and was trading at $78,977.78 Tuesday morning.) Should Bitcoin fail to take and hold that $81,700 pivot, the above pattern will fail technically and the crypto's breakout could end. Looking at the other technical indicators in the above chart, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (the gray line marked "RSI" at the chart's top) appears to have peaked and has now entered a technically overbought state. Time for caution? Maybe. That said, Bitcoin's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," denoted by blue bars, a black line and a gold line at the chart's bottom) looks really bullish. This is a momentum indicator, and the histogram of the 9-day EMA Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," marked with blue bars) has been in positive territory since mid-August. That's a short-term bullish signal. On top of that, Bitcoin's 12-day EMA (the black) is running well above the 26-day EMA (the gold line). That, too, is bullish looking -- and the signal gets amplified by the fact that both lines are above the zero-bound. All in, I see this chart as somewhat bullish -- but everything really depends upon what happens at that $81,700 pivot point. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle had no position in Bitcoin at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Cryptocurrencies are not FDIC insured or SIPC protected. Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk and potential loss of principal. For more information, see Moomoo's Crypto Risk Disclosure. Crypto services are offered by Moomoo Crypto Inc. (NMLS Number 2287314). Not available in all states, see our full licensing disclosures here. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.