Annie Jacobsen’s Biological War: A Scenario is a factually grounded book that reads like a thriller. It tells the story of a hypothetical but realistic pathogen, built to cause maximum destruction, that is leaked from a research laboratory. The pathogen quickly causes anarchy and mass casualties around the world. Review: Biological War: A Scenario – Annie Jacobsen (Torva)The book follows the same format as Jacobsen’s previous bestseller, Nuclear War: A Scenario, combining investigative journalism with speculative history, but in this case the enemy is invisible, difficult to detect and less well known than nuclear weapons. Jacobsen’s hypothetical scenario plays out day-by-day across the world. The point of view shifts between labs, Pentagon bunkers, city streets and military facilities. These scenes are interspersed with “history lessons” that describe previous biological weapons events, pandemics and government policies. The narrative structure keeps the reader glued to the page, taking in the ensuing horror. The language can sometimes be hyperbolic – for example, “military-grade DNA amplification technology” (this doesn’t exist) – adding to the thriller-like tone. But the strength of the book is its sources. It is based on interviews with ex-military and government experts, defected Russian biological weapons engineers, and even the chief executive officer of OpenAI, Sam Altman. These add credibility to an otherwise too-scary-to-be-believable story. An airborne plagueThe first section of Jacobsen’s book covers the history of biotechnology and biological weapons development. It starts with the 1925 Geneva Protocol outlawing their use, then notes subsequent violations of the protocol during the second world war and Cold War. The Biological Weapons Convention, which came into force in 1975, required the destruction of all such weapons. But a loophole allowing “defensive” or predictive research ensured many countries continued to engineer biological weapons, under the guise of developing vaccines or detection capabilities for hypothetical pathogens.This “dual-use” research has expanded recently. Researchers have sought to engineer possible future pandemic candidates. The aim is to get one step ahead of naturally occurring outbreaks. But the same protective research can also be used to create pathogens for malicious use. This research has led to an increase in the number of biosafety laboratories with the highest biological risk rating. Despite their strict safety guidelines, these facilities increase the risk of accidents such as lab leaks. It is in one such laboratory – the real-life Vector Institute in Koltsolvo, Siberia – that the book’s hypothetical leak occurs. After a sobering description of the historical Cold War era research conducted at this facility, Jacobsen moves into a blow-by-blow account of her hypothetical pandemic and its consequences. A scientist responsible for a fire at the lab, riddled with guilt, seeks confession at the local church, unwittingly infecting a traveller. He then takes himself out in the woods to end his life. He is found by a group of hunters.These primary contacts then spread the disease. The airborne fever, which kills quickly, reaches Los Angeles via a cruise ship, then spreads rapidly around the globe. Annie Jacobsen. Penguin Random House Jacobsen introduces us to a dizzying array of acronyms for United States military departments responsible for the real-time monitoring of satellite, chemical and communications data on a global scale. They receive information about the decontamination of the Russian lab site, as well as a mass vaccine roll-out and government cover-up, suggesting the catastrophic release of a biological weapon. When the plague appears in the homeless encampments of Los Angeles, however, authorities patronisingly believe it to be caused by a bad batch of fentanyl and fail to respond with any measure of personal protection or quarantine. By the time they realise their mistake, it is too late. Hospitals and clinics are overrun. There are mass casualties and gun violence. Jacobsen populates her story with a full modern cast of influencers, YouTubers, conspiracy theorists and anti-vaxxers. Statistics not even relevant to biological warfare – about the large number of US citizens dying from opioid overdoses and the lack of faith in government institutions – are given in this section, adding to the gloom. The portrayal of the belligerent and impatient US president and the self-obsessed podcasting California governor in this scenario is perhaps tongue in cheek. Another controversy is skirted when Jacobsen refers to the discredited theory that the COVID pandemic began with a lab leak in Wuhan, without explicitly stating whether this is a conspiracy theory or a realistic interpretation. DevolutionTesting conducted by the Center for Disease Control and the military, which is described in detail in Jacobsen’s book, reveals the pathogen responsible for the pandemic to be a form of the Yersinia pestis bacterium, which causes the plague. In this case, it is in its pneumonic (airborne) form, rather than the bubonic form known to history as the Black Death.This version of the bacteria, however, has been genetically engineered to be resistant to antibiotics. It responds to their application by releasing a toxin that causes encephalitis (swelling of the brain), leading to mania. It also produces a feeling of euphoria when a person is first infected, aiding its spread. This would seem like science fiction if it wasn’t based on actual research conducted in Soviet biowarfare labs during the Cold War and tested, successfully, on animals – and in one case, accidentally on a human. In Jacobsen’s hypothetical scenario, the final response is to declare martial law. Citing the Insurrection Act, the US government attempts to use military force to protect the insufficient roll-out of medical supplies antibiotics and vaccines, which are probably not effective against the disease anyway. We are introduced to the actual “devolution” plans that exist to ensure the continuity of the US government in the event of an extinction-level catastrophe. Jacobsen describes how these measures would be put in place, leading to a world where a select group of people are isolated in bunkers as society collapses above ground. An ongoing threatAfter the initial spread of the pathogen, Jacobsen tends to ignore the world outside the US. This understandable given her expertise and intended audience, but it would be have been good to have a little more global context.Biological War is very much intended as a warning to governments to increase vigilance and policy effectiveness against the very real threat of biological weapons. The book ends in a post-apocalyptic landscape, where those who are the least altruistic, but had the best respiration masks, have survived in isolation. The president sits alone, pondering the nature of evil and the evolutionary basis for war.In showing us what such a global catastrophe might look like, Biological War is a reminder that we should not ignore the loopholes and dull legislation around biological weapons, biosafety and biosecurity. Our future depends on it.Thomas Jeffries does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.