9/1/26 - $asst - Mathematically unsustainableStrive, Inc. Class ANASDAQ:ASSTVROCKSTAR9/1/26 :: VROCKSTAR :: ASST Mathematically unsustainable - first let's get something out of the way, shorting this is not for the faint of heart. shorting anything that's going up because "it's going up" - take cyber. go read my posts on CRWD the last few days. was that 'easy' money? no. did it work? yes. maybe a 60/40. i take those and size it approps. - so back to the target in question - at 105% more than BTC's spot, the bulls will say things like "you don't understand amplification". actually, yeah, it's pretty simple. in my day we called it leverage. you're paying 13% to borrow. i could pay 6% and lever up too. so already, you're paying twice what a normie would pay. - "yes but the perps have benefits". true. they are also liabilities and first claim on your bitcoin. it's not even your bitcoin, to be clear, but i'll put that aside (and clearly we'll let you figure that one out the hard way). - at over 50% of the capital stack leveraged, there's no "accretive issuance" for buyers today. that's the problem. and to use more leverage on something like BTC is, well, a FAFO situation - so the run is simply that. both btc and eth have run. this one was leveraged, shorted. and here we are. apes unite. - the fair value here is precisely $12-$15/shr tops. and you'll see what i mean when BTC properly sneezes, not some meager 1-2 to 3% pullback. I mean a 10-20% pullback. - if that doesn't happen? yeah this can continue to fly. - "burn the shorts" as the CEO says. yeah, i think that's a trope. this isn't some sort of new concept. it's not a reinvention of MSTR done better. it's just a repeat of the same pain that will be borne again by the dumb money that have unit bias of owning BTC and prefer to own 0dtes on an overpriced equity "that only trades at $25 and is going to add zeros". okay. maybe. but probably not. - and it's a fantastic short. - i'm ratcheting up the exposure through Oct. will continue to do so. and if it runs, that's probably b/c BTC/ETH are running and SBET will run too. - this is not an outright short per se, but an obvious pair where i own discounted non-amplified ETH (SBET) which is better than leverage and where i think eth/btc outperforms this cycle. and i'm short a price-based meme that is having a day in the sun - so if you keep listening to the guy with the gym background tell you "they've figured it out". zoom out. if they're the best hedge fund in the world (btw these are typically smart guys), maybe you'd pay some premium on top of BTC - but 2x? lol. as bitcoiners we like to say HFSP. so yeah. buyer beware. - i'll take the under. and i'd never own this. buy bitcoin and learn how to roll the dice for goodness sake. V