NDX Is Holding Up. The Nasdaq Underneath It Isn’t.NASDAQ 100 IndexNASDAQ_DLY:NDXTradeSentinelNotes1️⃣ What is it today? Early deterioration inside an intact primary trend. NDX remains above its SMA50, SMA100 and SMA150. But short-term participation continues to weaken. Only 46% of Nasdaq stocks remain above SMA20. And leadership has deteriorated dramatically: 44 new highs vs 96 new lows. 2️⃣ Thesis The headline index is currently stronger than the market underneath it. Long-term breadth remains healthy near 70% above SMA200, so this is not structural breakdown yet. But last week's internal weakness did not repair. It got worse. 3️⃣ What validates the bull case? I want to see: NDX reclaim SMA20 around 29,504 SMA20 breadth recover above 50% new lows collapse from 96 net new highs turn positive again SMA50 around 29,270 hold long-term breadth stay near 65–70%+ That would keep this in the correction/rotation category. 4️⃣ What validates deterioration? Watch for: new lows >100 persistently breadth toward 30–40% NDX loses SMA50 VIX/VIX3M rises toward 1 SMA200 breadth begins falling That would turn internal deterioration into a broader market regime change. What matters 44 highs vs 96 lows. That tells us considerably more than today's -0.70% NDX candle. What is mostly noise VIX at 14.4. Low volatility is not confirmation when leadership and participation are deteriorating. TradeSentinel Takeaway Last week the Nasdaq was being asked to prove participation. This week it failed that test again.