BTCUSD: $77.5K support is under pressureBitcoin / US DollarCOINBASE:BTCUSDProfessorSingaporeBitcoin is trading near $77,500 after another failed recovery attempt. Price was rejected from the $78,400-$78,600 area and then moved back below the key moving averages. This shows that buyers are still not strong enough to control the short-term structure. The main pressure comes from macro. After hawkish Fed repricing, Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar remain important headwinds for crypto. When yields rise, investors usually reduce exposure to high-beta assets, and BTC often trades more like a risk asset than a safe haven. On the chart, BTC is below EMA 9, EMA 20, SMA 50 and SMA 200. That confirms bearish short-term momentum. The SMA 200 near $78,173 is especially important: as long as BTC stays below it, rebounds may look more like retests than real trend recovery. RSI is around 33, close to oversold territory, so a technical bounce is possible. But the bounce needs confirmation. Without a reclaim of $78,000-$78,200, the market remains vulnerable. The volume profile also shows heavy activity above current price, especially around $78,000-$78,600. That means BTC may face supply if it tries to rebound. Sellers may defend that zone unless spot demand returns. Scenarios: 📈 Bullish recovery: BTC reclaims $78,200 and holds above the SMA 200. Then price can retest $78,400-$78,600, with a stronger move only if buyers break this supply zone. 📉 Bearish continuation: BTC fails below $78,000-$78,200 and loses $77,455. In that case, sellers may push price toward $77,000. 🔁 Base case: sideways volatility between $77,000 and $78,600 until the market gets a stronger catalyst from the dollar, yields or ETF flows. Main idea: Bitcoin is not broken on the bigger picture, but short-term control is with sellers while price stays below $78,200. ⚠️ Not financial advice.