NKE LONG — 3D ALMA Setup (WR 88% · avg RR 2.5)NIKE, Inc. Class BBATS:NKEGoldfinch_songNKE · 3D · long only. Context: Nike — global footwear / apparel brand — beta to wholesale sell-through, Sportswear/Jordan demand, and consumer discretionary tape ═ █ RESEARCH HUB Category: US stocks sentiment 56.6 (Greed) — built from 481 locked notes (208 constructive / 147 risk-off / 101 mixed); ticker verdicts +147 / −84. Sector: US FMCG 35.5 (Fear) — thin book: 4 locked notes (0 constructive / 1 risk-off / 3 neutral) · ticker verdicts 0 / −2. Fear reading is real but low-evidence — do not treat it as a deep consumer-staples panel. Asset: negative. Living name tape is the multi-year wash; a stale Web3 / RTFKT-sale overlay still sits on the verdict window and does not date this 3D arm. Tape: - Late Aug · risk-off · Nike near a ~12-year low (−3% session / ~−38% YTD in the locked note) — consumer/discretionary stress, not a one-day bounce narrative. - Sector evidence is thin (four notes) — Hub is a caution flag on footwear beta, not a full FY-reset dossier. Calendar: - 2026-09-01 · ISM Manufacturing + JOLTS · indirect (consumer / labor beta) · macro - 2026-09-04 · US August jobs / NFP (last print before FOMC) · indirect · macro - 2026-09-16 · FOMC · indirect (US risk / discretionary beta) · cb No confirmed name-specific earnings or product date in the Hub window. Hub verdict: category greed vs FMCG fear vs a negative name window — Hub is risk-off on the brand tape. That is the input to Desk, not a veto: the 12-year-low wash is exactly the kind of stretch a 3D Averaging grid is built to fade, provided Edge still shows discount (not a turnaround call). ═ █ MARKET EDGE Long Edge 29.6 · Short Edge −23.3 (31 Aug ~39.27). Built from: TOTAL_BEAR-style stack on 4H–1W Below · 3D/1W ALMA SHORT OVERHEAT-S (S >> SAvg) · deviation stretch on the execution clock · weekly bull OB/FVG demand vs 4H/1D bear FVG at the fill. Positive factors - ALMA — 3D SHORT OVERHEAT-S · S:11 vs SAvg:3.6 — execution clock stretched below the band (~3× avg) — mean-reversion fuel, not “SHORT = bearish” - ALMA — 1W SHORT OVERHEAT-S · S:7 vs SAvg:3.4 — slow band also stretched below - EMA — 3D Below · Cur S:45 vs Avg S:11.9 · Dev +10.8% — time-below overheated on the execution TF - EMA — 4H Below · Cur S:45 vs Avg S:12.6 · Dev +3.0% · 1D Below · Cur S:23 vs Avg S:8.4 · Dev +4.0% — same below-side stretch on the validation clocks - SMC — 1D OB Enter Normal Bull ~38.44 (27 Aug) · bounce up B62.6% · break down Br37.4% (n=171) — daily demand under the wash - SMC — 1W OB Enter Normal Bull ~39.60 (24 Aug) · bounce up B65.1% · break down Br34.9% (n=43) — weekly demand skew at the fill zone - SMC — 1W FVG Enter Bull ~39.60 (24 Aug) · bounce up B54.4% · break down Br45.6% (n=228) — mild weekly hold skew - TL — Support Break (26 Aug) · bounce up B54% · break down Br46% (n=39) — slight bounce-up history after the wash break - Score skew long ~29.6 vs short ~−23.3 — board still tilts discount / repair Negative factors - VWAP — chart touch Resistance ~39.23 (from 24 Aug) — fill ~$39.41 sits on the shelf, not in a support pocket; next active Resistance ~40.59 / ~40.95 - SMC — 4H FVG Enter Bear ~39.6 (28 Aug) · reject down B48% · break up Br52% (n=1509) — supply print at the arm, near coin-flip - SMC — 1D FVG Enter Bear ~39.6 (28 Aug) · reject down B48% · break up Br52% (n=1238) — same-window daily supply - TL — Resistance Break (28 Aug) · reject down B67% · break up Br33% (n=48) — reject-down ceiling into the fill - ALMA — 4H LONG · L:3 vs LAvg:3.3 · 1D LONG · L:2 vs LAvg:3.4 — faster clocks already above the band while 3D/1W stay OVERHEAT-S (TF war) - Fractal low formed · thin 1/4 cushion if the next 3D bars fail before adds 2–4 qualify ═ █ DESK Hub is risk-off on the name (12-year-low tape · FMCG fear · negative verdict window). Edge is a discount long (Long 29.6 vs Short −23.3) built from 3D/1W ALMA OVERHEAT-S and time-below on 4H–3D EMA. The fork is the thesis: fade the wash on the 3D Averaging clock, do not call a brand turn. Fresh 3D ALMA arm on the 31 Aug 13:30 UTC bar ~$39.41 (1 of 4) — bar-close refill on the slow clock into VWAP Resistance ~$39.23, not a chase of a one-day bounce. Takeaway: the 3D ALMA strategy and 88% WR / 2.5 avg RR support a disciplined first-lot arm ~$39.4 after the late-Aug consumer wash, with 3D/1W ALMA below-band overheat, 4H–3D EMA Cur S >> Avg S, and weekly/daily bull OB bounce-up skew (~63–65%) framing repair fuel — but Hub stays risk-off, weekly EMA is still +33% below the mean, the fill tags VWAP Resistance, 4H/1D bear FVGs sit at ~$39.6, and Resistance Break reject-down 67% frames a grind in the wash, not a clean logo reclaim; nominal risk stays on the −10% hard stop / Pine exit path. Base case: follow 3D ALMA Averaging · hold/add on qualifying 3D closes while the high-$30s pocket digests · mean-revert toward the ~$40.6–41.0 active VWAP Resistance band if footwear beta stabilizes without a gap through the stop. Bear case: lose the ~$38.4–39.2 demand/VWAP cluster · consumer headlines gap lower · template posts −10% toward ~35.5 from the working average · wait for the next bar-close arm. ═ █ STRATEGY ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 6/3, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry. Strategy Tester (NKE 3D): Win rate 88% · profit factor 7.6 · max drawdown 34% Avg winning trade +26.4% · avg losing trade −10.8% Typical hold ~50×3D bars on winners — consumer mean-reversion grid on the 3D Averaging template · 49-trade sample Hard stop −10% from fill ~$35.47. Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop. Scale-in stays 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, if lower 3D bars qualify. Chart: NKE 3D — ALMA Averaging Strategy. Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA.