DAVID PIERSON2026年9月2日 Vyacheslav Oseledko/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images; Sam Wolfe/ReutersThe Chinese leader Xi Jinping arrived in Central Asia this week with a message for a world increasingly unsettled by President Trump: China has friends and influence, and is prepared to help shape what comes next.中国领导人习近平本周访问中亚，向因特朗普总统而日益不安的世界传递出明确信号：中国拥有朋友与影响力，并已做好参与塑造未来的准备。The scene unfolded at a security summit in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, where Mr. Xi gathered with the leaders of Russia and Iran. He presented Beijing as a source of stability and a champion of an “orderly multipolar world” that would replace the current U.S.-dominated order.在吉尔吉斯斯坦首都比什凯克举行的一场安全峰会上，习近平与俄罗斯和伊朗领导人会面。他将北京塑造为一个稳定的源泉，倡导用“有序多极世界”取代目前由美国主导的秩序。If the Bishkek summit was designed to project solidarity, a meeting of the world’s most powerful countries in the mountains of Asheville, N.C., offered an image of fracture.如果说比什凯克峰会旨在展现团结，那么在北卡罗来纳州阿什维尔山区举行的世界最强大国家的会议则呈现出分裂的景象。European officials attending that meeting of the Group of 20 nations’ finance ministers and central bankers expressed outrage this week that the Trump administration had invited Russia, despite its war against Ukraine. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed that Canada was too small to fight a trade war with the United States. And officials were already confronting the economic fallout from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which disrupted the flow of oil and pushed global energy prices up and threatened to slow growth.在本周的二十国集团财长和央行行长会议上，欧洲官员对特朗普政府不顾俄乌战争而邀请俄罗斯表示愤怒。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特称，加拿大体量太小，无法与美国打贸易战。同时，官员们还在应对美以对伊战争带来的经济冲击，这场冲突干扰了石油供应，推高了全球能源价格，可能导致经济增长放缓。周二，吉尔吉斯斯坦首都比什凯克举行的一场上海合作组织会议，图片由俄罗斯官方媒体发布。The simultaneous gatherings happening across the world reflected the broader contest over who will define the next phase of global order. China is using its solidarity with Russia and Iran, two countries at war with the West, to project its influence, giving Mr. Xi leverage as he prepared for a summit with Mr. Trump later this month. The United States, meanwhile, was straining the alliances and economic relationships that have underpinned decades of global leadership.在全球两地同时举行的会议折射出关于谁将定义下一阶段全球秩序的更广泛博弈。中国正在利用与俄伊这两个与西方交战国家的团结来展现其影响力，为习近平本月晚些时候与特朗普举行峰会积累筹码。与此形成对比的是，美国正在损害数十年来作为其全球领导力基础的同盟和经济关系。“China’s theory of the case for bending the international political order in its preferred direction is to amass support from the ‘global majority,’” said Ryan Hass, a former career diplomat and White House national security official now at the Brookings Institution.“中国想要按照自己的意愿重塑国际政治秩序，其核心策略是争取‘全球多数’国家的支持，”前职业外交官、前白宫国家安全官员、现任职于布鲁金斯学会的何瑞恩(Ryan Hass)表示。“This is why Xi’s participation in these groupings is so important to Beijing,” he added. “It builds a narrative around China gaining momentum in building support for playing a more central role on the world stage.”“这就是为什么习近平参与这些集团对北京如此重要，”他补充说。“这种参与构建了一套叙事，即中国在赢得支持者方面势头渐强，逐步在世界舞台上发挥更核心的作用。”In Bishkek, at the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Mr. Xi met with the leaders of Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Uzbekistan, but his talks with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia carried the most weight. Just days earlier, John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, had made a secret trip to Moscow to urge the Kremlin to end the war in Ukraine. Mr. Xi told Mr. Putin: “The foundation of China-Russia relations will become ever stronger.”在比什凯克举行的上海合作组织峰会上，习近平会见了吉尔吉斯斯坦、蒙古和乌兹别克斯坦的领导人，但他与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京的会谈最为关键。就在几天前，中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫刚刚秘密访问莫斯科，敦促克里姆林宫结束乌克兰战争。习近平对普京表示：“中俄关系发展的根基将更加牢固。”President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran also attended the summit. Iranian media reported that he met with Mr. Xi on the sidelines, but they did not appear to have scheduled talks.伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽希齐扬也出席了峰会，伊朗媒体报道称，他与习近平在峰会期间见了面，但双方似乎没有安排会谈。Mr. Putin, however, held a meeting with the Iranian president, praising the Iranian people’s “courage and resilience” in fighting for its national interests. The Russian leader underscored how Moscow was coming to Tehran’s aid amid the conflict with the United States.但普京与伊朗总统举行了会晤，赞扬伊朗人民在捍卫国家利益方面展现出的“勇气和韧性“。这位俄罗斯领导人强调，在伊朗与美国发生冲突之际，莫斯科正向德黑兰伸出援手。周一，俄罗斯财政部长安东·西卢安诺夫（居中）在北卡罗来纳州阿什维尔举行的二十国集团会议上。“During this difficult time, we are trying to provide you with the assistance you need,” Mr. Putin said. “We have discussed this with you and are supplying you with the necessary goods.”“在这段艰难时期，我们正努力为你们提供所需的帮助，”普京表示，“我们已经就此进行了讨论，并正在向你们供应必要的物资。”Earlier in the day, Mr. Putin praised the consolidation of a new power center in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, calling the grouping “one of the independent and influential centers of the emerging multipolar world.” Its member countries, he noted, are home to almost half of the planet’s population and more than a third of its gross domestic product.当天早些时候，普京赞扬了上海合作组织这一新权力中心的巩固，称该组织是“新兴多极世界中独立且有影响力的中心之一”。他指出，上合组织成员国拥有全球近一半的人口，经济总量占全球三分之一以上。By comparison, the United States appears to be drifting away from its historical allies and weakening America’s ability to project strength globally. Mr. Trump has opened up a trade war with Canada and reduced war games with South Korea. Concerns are also growing that the United States is depleting its munitions in Iran and unable to meet its defense commitments around the world.相比之下，美国似乎正在疏远其传统盟友，削弱了自身在全球投射实力的能力。特朗普对加拿大挑起了贸易战，并减少了与韩国的军演。人们还日益担心美国正在伊朗耗尽其弹药储备，无法履行其在全球的防御承诺。Lars Klingbeil, the German vice chancellor and finance minister, told reporters at the G20 that it was “troubling” that the Trump administration had invited Russia’s finance minister, Anton Siluanov. Mr. Klingbeil said he scolded Mr. Siluanov during a session on Monday over Russia’s war in Ukraine. Many Europeans were also angered that the Treasury Department did not invite representatives from South Africa, a longtime G20 member and Africa’s largest economy.德国副总理兼财政部长拉尔斯·克林拜尔在G20会议上告诉记者，特朗普政府邀请俄罗斯财长安东·西卢安诺夫的决定“令人不安”。克林拜尔表示，自己在周一的一场会议上就俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争严厉指责了西卢安诺夫。许多欧洲人也对美国财政部没有邀请来自南非（G20长期成员及非洲最大经济体）的代表感到愤怒。An Opportunity for China中国的机会Beijing is happy to seize the opportunity that Mr. Trump is presenting by alienating Washington’s partners. Wu Xinbo, an American studies scholar at Fudan University in Shanghai who advises China’s Foreign Ministry, said that Beijing had two objectives: to build a consensus so that the United States could no longer dictate the agenda alone and to take a larger role in powering the world economy. (China also attended the G20 meeting.)北京乐于抓住特朗普疏远华盛顿伙伴带来的机会。上海复旦大学美国研究学者、中国外交部咨询顾问吴心伯表示，北京有两个目标：一是建立共识，使美国不再能独霸主导议程；二是在推动世界经济增长中发挥更大作用。（中国也出席了G20会议。）“Now that the American engine is losing steam — or even generating negative side effects — China, as an economic engine, must step up and play a greater role in driving and leading global growth,” he said.“既然美国发动机正在失去动力，甚至产生负面副作用，中国作为经济发动机，必须挺身而出，在推动和引领全球增长方面发挥更大作用，”他说。周一，吉尔吉斯斯坦首都比什凯克的一场活动，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京作为嘉宾出席。The meeting in Bishkek was one stop in a broader diplomatic campaign by Mr. Xi to work both sides of the emerging divide in global politics. He has hosted many Western leaders — including those from Germany, Britain and Canada — this year. He will head to Cairo next and is also expected to attend a summit of BRICS nations, a group of emerging economies led by China and India, in New Delhi.比什凯克会议只是习近平更广泛外交行动中的一站，他正在全球政治日益显现的分歧两侧同时展开斡旋。今年以来，他已接待了包括德国、英国和加拿大在内的多位西方领导人。他接下来将前往开罗，预计还将出席在新德里举行的金砖国家峰会（这是一个由中国和印度领衔的新兴经济体集团）。As much as Mr. Xi would like to cast such groupings as a unified counterbalance to the West, disagreements and tensions still abound. Beijing and New Delhi have traditionally been at odds in BRICS over how to rival the United States, with India reluctant to be too confrontational.尽管习近平希望将这些集团塑造为抗衡西方的统一力量，但分歧和对峙依然充斥其中。在金砖国家内部，北京和新德里传统上就如何与美国竞争存有分歧，印度不愿意表现得过于对抗。In another sign of a crack, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India urged Mr. Putin during talks on the sidelines of the summit in Kyrgyzstan to end his war in Ukraine for the sake of “humanity.” Mr. Putin told Mr. Modi that Russia was “moving in this direction,” according to Russian state media.阵营存在裂痕的另一个迹象是，在吉尔吉斯斯坦峰会间隙，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪出于“人道”考量敦促普京结束乌克兰战争。据俄罗斯官方媒体报道，普京告诉莫迪，俄罗斯正“朝这个方向努力”。The Bishkek summit also exposed the limits of the group’s solidarity. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is not a military alliance. Beijing can offer diplomatic backing, but has been unwilling to commit forces to defend Russia or Iran.比什凯克峰会也暴露了该集团团结的局限性。上海合作组织并不是一个军事联盟。北京可以提供外交支持，但一直不愿意承诺出兵保卫俄罗斯或伊朗。To China, that is the point of the arrangement, argues Zhou Bo, a retired People’s Liberation Army senior colonel who is now at Tsinghua University in Beijing.中国人民解放军退役大校、现任职于北京清华大学的周波认为，对中国来说，这正是该机制的关键。“It is not based on alliance relationships, so it is not provocative,” he said. “That’s why people have no problem accepting it or engaging with it.”“它不是建立在同盟关系的基础上，因此不具挑衅性，”他说。“这就是为什么大家乐于接受它或与之接触。”As Washington retreats and the world becomes increasingly multipolar, countries will choose to join more pragmatic forums with less strings attached, Mr. Zhou said. “Naturally everyone is hedging their bets,” he said.随着华盛顿后退以及世界变得日益多极化，周波说，各国将选择加入附加条件更少、更为务实的论坛。“大家自然都在对冲风险，”他说。特朗普与习近平5月在北京进行了会晤。Building Leverage Before Trump Summit在特朗普峰会前积累筹码China’s diplomatic show of strength also reflects Mr. Xi’s need to widen his options before he meets with Mr. Trump in Washington later this month.中国展示外交实力的举动也反映出习近平需要在本月晚些时候于华盛顿会见特朗普之前拓宽其选择。Despite striking an economic truce with China, the Trump administration has continued to apply pressure by banning imports of Chinese robots and expanding sanctions on Chinese companies that import Iranian oil.尽管与中国达成了经济休战，特朗普政府仍继续施压，禁止进口中国机器人，并扩大对进口伊朗石油的中国企业的制裁。Trump officials have also moved to slow China’s advancement in artificial intelligence by threatening to restrict Chinese A.I. models that collect data from American ones. The Trump administration is preparing to warn dozens of countries not to participate in a Chinese A.I. initiative or risk being shut out of an American A.I. coalition called Pax Silica, according to a letter written by the State Department and seen by The New York Times. (It is unclear if the letters have been sent. The State Department did not respond to a request for comment).特朗普政府官员还采取行动阻碍中国在人工智能领域的进步，威胁要限制从美国模型获取数据的中国人工智能模型。根据《纽约时报》看到的一份由美国国务院撰写的信函，特朗普政府准备警告数十个国家不要参与中国的AI倡议，否则将面临被排除在美国名为“硅和平”(Pax Silica)的AI联盟之外的风险。（尚不清楚信件是否已寄出。美国国务院未回应置评请求。）China is facing potential trade restrictions from Europe, too. Lawmakers in Brussels are trying to slow the deluge of Chinese products like electric vehicles, solar panels and industrial chemicals flooding the European Union and accelerating the loss of tens of thousands of jobs.中国也面临着来自欧洲的潜在贸易限制。布鲁塞尔的立法者正试图放慢电动汽车、太阳能电池板和工业化学品等中国产品涌入欧盟的速度，这些产品正加速导致数万个工作岗位的流失。Then there are Mr. Xi’s domestic vulnerabilities. A more immediate one is a flood along the border with Nepal that has left thousands dead and missing and is raising questions about China’s preparedness. Another is the yearslong property crisis that has suppressed the Chinese economy, forcing Beijing to rely more on exports to power growth, even as that strategy has frayed relations with trading partners.此外习近平还要面对国内的困境。一个更为直接的问题是尼泊尔边境沿线的洪水，导致数千人死亡和失踪，并引发了对中国防灾准备的质疑。另一个问题是持续多年的房地产危机，这场危机拖累了中国经济，迫使北京更加依赖出口拉动增长，即使这一策略损害了与贸易伙伴的关系。“China is facing headwinds, so is the United States,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. “The right balance is between getting enough support and endorsement at the S.C.O. without poking Trump directly in the eye.”“中国面临着逆风，美国也是如此，”华盛顿史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵表示。“正确的平衡点在于，在上合组织获得足够的支撑与背书，同时又不直接刺激到特朗普。”Paul Sonne自柏林对本文有报道贡献。Siyi Zhao自北京有研究贡献。David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。