JASON GULLEY2026年8月31日去年，一位研究人员划着配备声呐的充气皮划艇，测量尼泊尔恩戈尊帕冰川上一处融水湖泊的深度。 Jason Gulley for The New York TimesLike much of the world, I watched and rewatched the videos of the catastrophic flood that have been filtering out of Nepal since Wednesday with horror and sadness.像世界上许多人一样，自上周三以来，我带着恐惧和悲伤，一遍又一遍地观看从尼泊尔传出的那场灾难性洪水的视频。But unlike many, I have an intimate knowledge of this part of the world, where I first traveled as an undergraduate geology student in 2005 to study how glaciers in the Khumbu region disintegrate into hazardous lakes. I’ve made six expeditions there over the last two decades.但与许多人不同的是，我对这片地区有切身的了解。2005年，我还是一名地质学本科生时第一次来到这里，研究昆布地区的冰川如何崩塌形成危险的湖泊。过去20年里，我先后六次来到这里进行考察。Because of the remote location, scientists don’t know what precisely triggered Wednesday’s disaster — yet. What’s clear at this point is that a giant hunk of glacier peeled off the side of the mountain, tumbled down 4,000 vertical feet and slammed into a tributary of the Bhote Koshi River in China.由于事发地点偏远，科学家们目前尚不清楚究竟是什么触发了周三的灾害。目前可以确定的是，一块巨大的冰川从山体侧面脱落，垂直坠落约约1200米，轰然砸入了博特科西河在中国境内的一条支流。Originally misidentified as an earthquake, the mountain-shaking event registered as a 5.2 magnitude seismic event. Moments later, a wall of rocks and water blasted through the Gyriong Port building as the flood barreled down the valley.这一震动山体的事件最初被误认为是地震，记录到的震级为5.2级。不久之后，随着洪水沿着山谷奔涌而下，由岩石和洪水组成的巨浪冲毁了吉隆口岸的建筑。The source of the water remains a mystery.但这些水究竟来自哪里，仍然是个谜。In many catastrophic floods in the Himalaya, glacier lakes are to blame. When Nepal’s glaciers were healthy, they bulldozed down mountains and pushed up piles of rocky debris hundreds of feet high to form features glaciologists call moraines.在喜马拉雅地区发生的许多灾难性洪水中，罪魁祸首都是冰川湖。过去，尼泊尔的冰川处于健康状态时，它们会像推土机一样沿山体向下推进，将大量岩石碎屑堆积到数十米高，形成冰川学家所谓的冰碛垄。尼泊尔昆布地区的夏尔巴热村庄萨梅。远处可见2024年冰川洪水冲刷过的痕迹。As the planet has warmed and temperatures across the Himalaya have soared, glaciers have shriveled, and those moraines have trapped meltwater. That has created lakes that can grow until they replace the glacier feeding them — or until a disturbance causes them to drain catastrophically.随着全球气候变暖，喜马拉雅地区的气温大幅升高，冰川不断萎缩，这些冰碛垄则把融化的冰雪水拦截，形成湖泊。这些湖泊可以不断扩大，直到最终吞没了补给它们的冰川；也可能因为某种扰动而突然溃决，造成灾难性泄洪。As I reported last year with the Times climate science reporter Raymond Zhong, a landslide smacked into a glacier in the Khumbu region in 2024, launching a flood wave over the moraine dam that sent 100 million gallons of water through the heart of Thame, a Sherpa village nearby. Luckily, no one died. But the flood destroyed the village’s school, medical clinic, several lodges and homes.正如我去年与《纽约时报》的气候科学记者钟旻(Raymond Zhong)共同报道的，2024年昆布地区发生山体滑坡，撞击冰川，引发的洪水冲破冰碛坝，将1亿加仑的水倾泻至附近夏尔巴人村庄萨梅的中心地带。幸运的是，没有人因此遇难，但洪水摧毁了村里的学校、诊所、几处客栈和住宅。Data shows that glacial failures — the scientific term for a category of events that includes ice avalanches, glacier detachments and rock-ice avalanches — have happened dozens of times since 1900 in the China-Nepal border region that was the site of this week’s devastation.数据显示，自1900年以来，在中尼边境地区——也就是本周灾害的发生地——已发生过数十次冰川失稳（这是一个科学术语，涵盖冰崩、冰川滑塌和冰岩崩等事件）。While Wednesday’s flood had a massive landslide, there didn’t appear to be any glacier lakes below it, making it a bit of an anomaly, certain to be studied intensely in the coming years. Some scientists have speculated that the impact of a piece of glacier falling 4,000 feet could have pulverized the ice into water.尽管周三的洪灾也涉及大规模山体滑坡，但其下方似乎并没有冰川湖，这使得此次事件有些不同寻常，未来几年势必会成为科学家重点研究的对象。一些科学家推测，一块冰川坠落1200米造成的冲击力可能已将冰体直接粉碎成了水。But we know that there will be more floods — and some may be far worse than this week’s catastrophe.但我们知道，未来还会发生更多洪水——而其中一些可能远比这周的灾害严重。洪水过后的萨梅村小学一片狼藉。Unless the carbon dioxide emissions that are heating the planet are curbed, scientists project warming across High Mountain Asia, a broad region encompassing the Himalaya, Karakoram, Pamir, Hindu Kush and Tien Shan, will erase as much as 75 percent of the remaining glaciers by 2100.除非人类能够遏制加热地球的二氧化碳排放，否则科学家预计，到2100年，亚洲高山区（涵盖喜马拉雅山脉、喀喇昆仑山脉、帕米尔高原、兴都库什山脉和天山的广大地区）的气温升高将导致多达75%的现有冰川消失。Meltwater pooling behind moraines and in depressions exposed by the ice will transform thousands of glaciers into large lakes, each one a potential ticking time bomb for vulnerable communities downstream.融化的冰水会在冰碛垄后方以及冰层消退后暴露出的洼地汇聚，使数千座冰川逐渐转变成大型湖泊。每一座湖泊，都可能成为下游脆弱社区头顶上一颗不断滴答作响的定时炸弹。Over the last 20 years, I’ve watched this process in action. On my earliest trips to the region, I would scamper up the Ngozumpa, Nepal’s longest glacier, to my research sites, where I would step across a long, ribbon-shaped puddle, near the Sherpa village of Gokyo.过去20年里，我亲眼目睹了这一过程。在我最早几次前往该地区时，我会一路轻快地爬上尼泊尔最长的冰川——恩戈尊帕冰川，前往我的研究地点，在夏尔巴人的村庄果觉附近，我会跨过一汪狭长、带状的水洼。On return trips to Nepal over the next 20 years, I watched that puddle begin to gobble its way across the glacier. In 2025, when I returned to the region to report on glacier flooding hazards for The Times, it had become a lake, nearly 750 feet wide and 850 long.接下来的20年里，每次返回尼泊尔，我都看到那汪水一点点将冰川吞噬。2025年，我再次来到这里为《纽约时报》报道冰川洪水的风险时，它已经变成了一个湖，将近230米宽、260米长。坐落在恩戈尊帕冰川侧碛中的夏尔巴人村庄果觉。The flood in Thame a few years ago showed that smaller lakes can be dangerous on their own, but they also play a critical role in creating larger lakes — and potentially larger flood hazards. The Ngozumpa, like many of Nepal’s glaciers, is blanketed by thick, rocky debris shed by adjacent mountains. Glaciologists once thought this debris would insulate ice from melting, but now we know that lakes can supercharge melt. Silt and mud trapped by meltwater turn lake water a dark gray color. And just as wearing a black T-shirt on a sunny day makes you warmer, that dark color heats up the water in the lakes to melt the surrounding ice.几年前萨梅村的洪灾表明，较小的湖泊本身就具有危险性，但它们在形成更大的湖泊——进而可能造成更大的洪灾——方面也起着关键作用。和尼泊尔许多冰川一样，恩戈尊帕冰川被相邻山体脱落的厚厚的岩石碎屑所覆盖。地质学家曾认为这些碎屑会隔热，保护冰川免于融化，但现在我们知道，湖泊反而会加剧融化。融水携带的泥沙和泥土使湖水变成深灰色。就像晴天穿黑T恤会让你感觉更热一样，这种深色使湖水温度升高，从而融化周围的冰。Warm water can create caves that turn glaciers into Swiss cheese, rotting them from the inside out. When these tunnels collapse, they create new depressions that become lakes. And so, like tumors in a cancer patient, rapid lake growth can quickly consume a glacier.温暖的水会在冰川内部形成洞穴，把冰川变得像瑞士奶酪一样千疮百孔，从内部一点点腐蚀它们。当这些地下通道坍塌后，就会形成新的洼地，而这些洼地又会变成湖泊。所以，就像癌症患者的肿瘤一样，湖泊的快速扩张可以迅速吞噬一条冰川。The Imja glacier, another one I’ve visited many times during my research in the Khumbu, is a dramatic example. Aerial images from the 1950s show that the lake had but a handful of small lakes on the surface. By 1978, a single lake consumed nearly the entire glacier tongue. By 2021, the lower Imja glacier had been converted into a lake that was 1.7 miles long, 0.4 miles wide and more than 400 feet deep. The only thing holding it back is an unstable dam of ice, sand and rock.伊姆扎冰川是我在昆布研究期间多次考察的另一条冰川，它就是一个极具冲击力的例子。20世纪50年代的航拍图像显示，当时冰川表面只有少数几个小湖。到1978年，一个湖泊就几乎吞噬了整个冰舌。到2021年，伊姆扎冰川下部已形成一个长约2.7公里、宽0.4约640米、深超过120米的湖泊。唯一阻挡它的，是一座由冰、沙和岩石构成的不稳定堤坝。伊姆扎冰川湖全长约3.2公里，且仍在不断扩张。近景的溢洪道正在泄出部分湖水。Imja’s lake is one of the largest, and once one of the most dangerous, glacier lakes in Nepal. In 2016, the Nepali Army excavated an 11-foot-deep trench to lower the level of the water — and the magnitude of the flood that would be unleashed if it were to burst. An outburst in 1985 that flooded Thame had prompted the move. Thirty eight years later, I was there to document the effects of a second burst.伊姆扎湖是尼泊尔最大、也曾是最危险的冰川湖之一。2016年，尼泊尔军队挖掘了一条约3.4米深的沟渠以降低水位，从而降低一旦溃坝可能引发的洪水规模。1985年的一次溃坝洪水淹没了萨梅村，促使了这次行动。38年后，我在那里记录了第二次溃坝的影响。As a geologist focused on the science of glaciers, I don’t know what can be done to address floods like these in the future. But one thing I do know is that they are coming.作为一名专门研究冰川科学的地质学家，我不知道未来究竟能采取什么措施来应对这样的洪水。但有一件事我很确定：它们还会来。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。